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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1
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7 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

For NC, anyway!? :(

If that low ends up bombing closer to the coast, all the cold air (..lower dew points) just to your north will feed in (basically a nice CAD should setup). Point is the players are on the field, we just need them to play together. Still far out so many different solutions (good and bad) will present themselves in the coming days.  

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14 minutes ago, packbacker said:

FWIW...UK is more GFS like at day 6.  Looks like euro is weakening the ULL and sending a piece out much quicker then other guidance.  It could be leading the way I guess...

Yeah Pack I was coming in here to post that Euro/CMC are in one camp and GFS/UKMet are in the other.  Euro/CMC don't allow the polar trough to drop down into the Great Lakes and Northeast out ahead of our storm wave over TX like the GFS/UKMet are doing.  Euro/CMC look won't work.

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34 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Atleast its the same general track! But concerning that CMC is usually one of the coldest models!? I guess it's track is a little N of GFS

CMC tends to bias cold in the medium range when you have a big arctic high plunging down.  Outside of that, I don't think it's fair to say that it has a cold bias

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2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

In the So What Have We Learned Here thread, we learned (or maybe we didn't) that we want the system showing up crossing central Florida until 24 hours out.  Right now, I have to go on ahead and congratulate Big Frosty on another snowstorm.

Go with the warm / rainer solution! 

Always money, like UNC! :)

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5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

In the So What Have We Learned Here thread, we learned (or maybe we didn't) that we want the system showing up crossing central Florida until 24 hours out.  Right now, I have to go on ahead and congratulate Big Frosty on another snowstorm.

Why thank you Pal, That's mighty nice of you!! I like getting paid early................ :raining:

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6 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

Cmc ensembles moved towards the gefs in the longer range. 

How does the eps compare? 

GFS Ens looks the best of the 3...then CMC Ens...then Euro Ens.  Euro Ens still has a strong nino look to it...southern stream, but it's more west to east zonal, so it's cool, not cold...it does retrograde the N Pac low west in time, but it doesn't have the W Canada / AK ridging like the GFS Ens.

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5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

In the So What Have We Learned Here thread, we learned (or maybe we didn't) that we want the system showing up crossing central Florida until 24 hours out.  Right now, I have to go on ahead and congratulate Big Frosty on another snowstorm.

Good analysis! Congrats Roxboro , on another 8-10"! :(

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2 minutes ago, griteater said:

GFS Ens looks the best of the 3...then CMC Ens...then Euro Ens.  Euro Ens still has a strong nino look to it...southern stream, but it's more west to east zonal, so it's cool, not cold...it does retrograde the N Pac low west in time, but it doesn't have the W Canada / AK ridging like the GFS Ens.

As far as op runs, GFS is slowly trending cooler for the last couple of runs, and Euro slightly as well. Thought I heard one time the GFS has been doing better with pattern recognition , atleast this year, and wasn't it the 1st to move this current storm to the NYC bomb we have today?

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