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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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We need to get the AO negative. A couple of days back the models were showing this and it allowed some of the cold air at the pole to move south (not showing this now). The models are still showing a trough type pattern to setup (in LR) but we're now having surface temp issues. Question is; can north American generate enough cold air for us to work with.  

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We need to get the AO negative. A couple of days back the models were showing this and it allowed some of the cold air at the pole to move south (not showing this now). The models are still showing a trough type pattern to setup (in LR) but we're now having surface temp issues. Question is; can north American generate enough cold air for us to work with.  


it's gonna be marginal air no doubt . but when are we not dealing with marginal temps. I don't see much arctic air getting involved at least through the first few weeks of February. So we will be relying on timing and marginal temps . life in the SE

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10 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

What I don't understand is why we can't get a sustained good winter pattern in this part of the country.  The west has no trouble locking in cold for large portions of the winter.  Nor does the central US.  Nor does Europe.  Nor does Russia.  Etc.

The west has elevation. This really is the first good year in a long time. This time of year they just need the moisture and elevation creates the snow. In a crappy year (for us) I'm glad they're at least replenishing (...surpassing) the snowpack. Economically this will benefit us all (cheaper produce, etc.). Dealing with Europe, usually we mirror patterns. When a -NAO occurs eastern NA and W. Europe tend to be cold. I suppose they're lucking out and getting cold from another setup.   

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41 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

What I don't understand is why we can't get a sustained good winter pattern in this part of the country.  The west has no trouble locking in cold for large portions of the winter.  Nor does the central US.  Nor does Europe.  Nor does Russia.  Etc.

You'll always get the same response:

you live in the South

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40 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Bob Chill from the MA forum, a great and knowledgable poster, doesn't seem enthralled with the 10+ day pattern, at all! That should throw up all sorts of red flags!! Mic pickup ! :(

LOL...feels like a one hit wonder winter.  You got hit, so your good.  We are on pace for a record warm January.   Odds that flips to a sustained BN pattern in Feb was never high.  I do think a minor event hits someone in mid-Feb.   

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15 minutes ago, packbacker said:

LOL...feels like a one hit wonder winter.  You got hit, so your good.  We are on pace for a record warm January.   Odds that flips to a sustained BN pattern in Feb was never high.  I do think a minor event hits someone in mid-Feb.   

First fantasy clipper of the year on 12z GFS ! Those always work out! It's the next storm behind the clipper, that equals $$$$$! Should be here by Fab Feb 4th, right as the cool air exits!

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1 minute ago, WarmNose said:

Remember around Christmas time when everyone said we wouldn't have a favorable window until mid Februry.?..  Then the bulk of our region got 6+ inches of snow 12 days later? I remember 

Yes!  But I don't know if I'd go so far as to say the "bulk" of our region.

But, yes, it is the 16th of January.  Punting February is not very smart.  It just isn't.

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06z GEFS also with more of a move toward the GEPS and EPS.  Similar look with the 3 ensembles now with negative heights moving out of AK around the 27th, then a -EPO/+PNA type pattern setting up.  I think that alone gives at least some reason for optimism.  AO/NAO nothing special in our favor, but things could look a lot worse from a long range ensemble standpoint.

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Remember around Christmas time when everyone said we wouldn't have a favorable window until mid Februry.?..  Then the bulk of our region got 6+ inches of snow 12 days later? I remember 


You'll notice the same folks are deniers of this pattern change. Old habits die hard!


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9 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

^ changes in the Pacific start even earlier.  I like where we are heading. Not the perfect pattern but definitely one we can score in especially for a Nina. 

Yeah I think it looks good especially for the western portions of the viewing area. The cutoff low looks very impressive. No cold air with it but some severe weather potential. 

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