NC_hailstorm Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 Pattern changer should enter California around day 6,then we'll get a nice squall line/Fropa around the 23rd or 24th.After that you can start hunting possible winter weather,we're still on schedule. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 Greg Fishel posted this on facebook earlier . Interesting insight! Quote AFTER A RELATIVELY QUIET AND WARM WEEK, THINGS COULD GET CRAZY The images I have attached to this post show the upper air pattern compared to normal at 3 times-last night, this coming friday night, and the monday night thereafter. What do I mean by compared to normal? The lines on these maps are like isobars aloft. And since these parameters are measured globally every day, a long term average can be computed, and we can compare our current values to those that would be "expected" for this time of year. For last night, you can see all the red covering the eastern 3/4 of the country. That implies warmth. So you may be asking yourself, so why is it so much cooler today? The cool air over us today is very shallow (2-3 thousand feet thick). The rest of the atmosphere above that is warm. Another push of shallow cool air will arrive Monday, but after that, the floodgates are open for more really warm temperatures at all levels of the atmosphere from Tuesday forward. By Friday, a massive trough sets up in western North American with tremendous ridging in eastern North America, especially in eastern Canada. It's after this time that things begin to get a little hairy. By the following Tuesday, notice how the blue-red couplet is no longer oriented west-east, but south-north.This scenario is referred to as a blocking pattern. All that red, or ridging in Canada is forcing the jet stream to cut underneath it across the southern United States. The bottom line is the potential for an old fashioned noreaster the beginning of not this coming week, but the following week. So I'm sure you have at least 2 questions. Number 1-you didn't know 12 hours out how much snow we could get last week, so you expect us to believe something 10 days out? Fair point. In this situation, we are not talking about the exact position of a rain/snow line, but rather the large scale flow, which is much more predictable. And the maps shown represent an average of 51 computer models, all based on the European model. When that many ensemble members are sending a similar message, it gets my attention. Number 2-Are we talking something frozen? I don't know yet. There will be no reservoir of really cold Arctic air on which to draw upon, so I have serious misgivings about getting the snow lovers excited. But the potential for a significant storm with lots of precipitation/wind is definitely there. If this works out, I will not beat my chest. If it doesn't, I will not hang my head in shame. I'm just sharing my thoughts about what I see as an "interesting" pattern. We shall see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 1 hour ago, Cold Rain said: Yeah, it's probably raining as shown. Need a strong high to the N or NW. We're going to need a restock on the mic aisle over the next couple of weeks, methinks. I think we are going to be able to get ALOT of refurbished mics, for cheap! A little early to be dropping them when you only have a wing and a prayer!! The thing that concerns me the most, is JB is getting frothy in his bathtub over this and he's never right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 14 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: I think we are going to be able to get ALOT of refurbished mics, for cheap! A little early to be dropping them when you only have a wing and a prayer!! The thing that concerns me the most, is JB is getting frothy in his bathtub over this and he's never right! He was pretty spot on this last storm. ☃️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 6 minutes ago, Rainforrest said: He was pretty spot on this last storm. ☃️ From when? Like 2 days out? Like when everybody knew the NW trend was happening and the NAM started showing it? Brick could have forecasted that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: From when? Like 2 days out? Like when everybody knew the NW trend was happening and the NAM started showing it? Brick could have forecasted that Except but for the GFS.....:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Except but for the GFS.....:( Yeah, we just pick out the models that don't show snow, just to piss him off! I think he really had a tough time with the last storm!! I think he's binge-watching all the wrestle-manias, from day 1 and eating Cocoa Puffs, in the fetal position! ive seen him post on FB, so he's around! The 12z GFS = mic breaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 1 hour ago, NC_hailstorm said: Pattern changer should enter California around day 6,then we'll get a nice squall line/Fropa around the 23rd or 24th.After that you can start hunting possible winter weather,we're still on schedule. Carry on. Love when you get on here and post. What's your thoughts about the duration of our pattern change. Think this one has some legs to carry us to mid February possibly early March and not be in and out. I'm still learning about mjo, but looks like it could lock into a favorable position for atleast the 1st half of Feb. Pattern has been progressive all winter. No big dominant signal is driving things. It's like pattern shifts rubber band like and then snaps back totally opposite extreme. All tc's are reacting , fighting against each other. Love the post by Fish. Now that's how you forecast LR to the public. Straight up this is what we see, not gospel and doesn't gurantee anything, but the dogs are barking for xy and z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: I think we are going to be able to get ALOT of refurbished mics, for cheap! A little early to be dropping them when you only have a wing and a prayer!! The thing that concerns me the most, is JB is getting frothy in his bathtub over this and he's never right! Just for proof and giggles, Would you post it, IF he's ever right? And post when a few other Mets are wrong? If they ever are? Reading on here I never hear of any Mets being wrong but JB? Surely there's got to be some wrong sometimes??? Since JB's never right, I would like to know which ones that are never wrong so I can read their blogs!! (I mean he's the only one you ever mention being wrong 100% of the time) This is a serious question? IMO He's one of the best LR forecasters out there............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 17 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Love when you get on here and post. What's your thoughts about the duration of our pattern change. Think this one has some legs to carry us to mid February possibly early March and not be in and out. I'm still learning about mjo, but looks like it could lock into a favorable position for atleast the 1st half of Feb. Pattern has been progressive all winter. No big dominant signal is driving things. It's like pattern shifts rubber band like and then snaps back totally opposite extreme. All tc's are reacting , fighting against each other. Love the post by Fish. Now that's how you forecast LR to the public. Straight up this is what we see, not gospel and doesn't gurantee anything, but the dogs are barking for xy and z. Thanks I just post what I see and use past experience. Well the MJO is forecasted to go strong,and in phase 1 by the GFS,Euro,and Ukie so good agreement there,that's usually a good fit for cold in the east.Also the GFS is going for a strong strat warming that could really displace the PV and set up better blocking.Euro isn't as strong as that but what I see only goes out to day 10 so just have to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 25 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: Just for proof and giggles, Would you post it, IF he's ever right? And post when a few other Mets are wrong? If they ever are? Reading on here I never hear of any Mets being wrong but JB? Surely there's got to be some wrong sometimes??? Since JB's never right, I would like to know which ones that are never wrong so I can read their blogs!! (I mean he's the only one you ever mention being wrong 100% of the time) This is a serious question? IMO He's one of the best LR forecasters out there............ Well, there is Glenn Burns!! (JK) Robert seems to be onboard and excited about the pattern change, and cold and snowy possibilities! I'll take his word over JB's any day! JB is just wrong ALOT! His winter forecast is busting harder, than A Jon mic that got dropped! His December to remember for Eastcoast, was horribly wrong! Hes been touting the MJO the last few days and strat warming , bringing a harsh return to winter on the Eastcoast, from end of Jan-March!! Seems a little extreme, no?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 If he's ever right, I'll give him props! Like I posted a few posts back, he " nailed" the last storm??? By saying it would come west, like 2 days out, when 90% of models were showing this. About the time we went cold and knew it was coming, he was saying it was going to get warm and stay warm in the east for awhile and kind of threw his hands up after his December debacle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 If he's ever right, I'll give him props! Like I posted a few posts back, he " nailed" the last storm??? By saying it would come west, like 2 days out, when 90% of models were showing this. About the time we went cold and knew it was coming, he was saying it was going to get warm and stay warm in the east for awhile and kind of threw his hands up after his December debacleGotcha, I wasn't trying to call you out. It's just I never hear you say anything about any other forecaster? And you're not the only one there's others JB is the only one they ever call out. But that's no big deal people can call out whoever they want!! when you're in the forecast business you're open game for criticism. I've been following him for over 30 years I guess that's one reason I'm kind of partial to him as to when I say I think he's one the best long range forecaster out there. You going to get your big Mack snow in a few weeks!! At least I hope you do, I hope everyone gets in on a good winter storm! I honestly think he gets taken out of text a lot. like his December to remember He didn't say for GSP or for Mount Airy some parts of US had a December to remember he forecast for the entire nation. But it's obvious that he concentrates more on The Mid Atlantic and Northeast that's where majority of his clients are located as that's where his bread and butter is. So I understand him concentrating more there. I just tried to pick out things he forecast up there and see what I can glean as far as pattern for down here! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 14 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: Gotcha, I wasn't trying to call you out. It's just I never hear you say anything about any other forecaster? And you're not the only one there's others JB is the only one they ever call out. But that's no big deal people can call out whoever they want!! when you're in the forecast business you're open game for criticism. I've been following him for over 30 years I guess that's one reason I'm kind of partial to him as to when I say I think he's one the best long range forecaster out there. You going to get your big Mack snow in a few weeks!! At least I hope you do, I hope everyone gets in on a good winter storm! I honestly think he gets taken out of text a lot. like his December to remember He didn't say for GSP or for Mount Airy some parts of US had a December to remember he forecast for the entire nation. But it's obvious that he concentrates more on The Mid Atlantic and Northeast that's where majority of his clients are located as that's where his bread and butter is. So I understand him concentrating more there. I just tried to pick out things he forecast up there and see what I can glean as far as pattern for down here! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Exactly. He only cares about what falls in his backyard so when he gets excited it doesn't necessarily translate to anything for the SE. It just usually means that the NE and MA is going to get yet another snowstorm. The only reason I read his posts is to learn about the "bigger picture" of weather patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 5 day averages for Days 11-16 on GFS and Canadian Ensemble are starting to look pretty good for a colder pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 18 minutes ago, griteater said: 5 day averages for Days 11-16 on GFS and Canadian Ensemble are starting to look pretty good for a colder pattern Until Euro is on board, I'm out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Until Euro is on board, I'm out! The 12z EPS isn't out on Tropical Tidbits yet, but: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 ^ EPS only goes out to 240 on TT. Hopefully, on of our insiders can describe what they say for the period comparable to what Grit posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 The indexes aren't filling me with confidence. NAO predicted to dip slightly negative and then head back up. AO is all over the place in the forecasts, ranging from -3 to +3. PNA is actually expected to peak at about +1 on Monday and then head neutral or negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 3 minutes ago, cbmclean said: The indexes aren't filling me with confidence. NAO predicted to dip slightly negative and then head back up. AO is all over the place in the forecasts, ranging from -3 to +3. PNA is actually expected to peak at about +1 on Monday and then head neutral or negative. Let's look at the next few days. NAO goes - PNA goes slightly + AO goes way - MJO goes into 1 No confidence? Get yourself ready! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 2 hours ago, Cold Rain said: ^ EPS only goes out to 240 on TT. Hopefully, on of our insiders can describe what they say for the period comparable to what Grit posted. 12z EPS mean goes to a pretty strong PNA ridge from d10-15. Control is cold post d10, unlike its 0z run. Nice look at 850 w 2m lagging a couple of days behind those drops. Looks like a stable PNA. AN heights in AK connected to the PNA ridge. Not sure why the EPS was late.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 The biggest and only concern I really have is that the PNA ridge on the guidance has occasionally IMO been shown to be too far west still. It's not as bad as it's been under the -PNA/-EPO regime this winter but I still find some runs of the GEFS and EPS have shown it a tad far west of where you want it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 Thanks CG and Jon! That is looking good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: The biggest and only concern I really have is that the PNA ridge on the guidance has occasionally IMO been shown to be too far west still. It's not as bad as it's been under the -PNA/-EPO regime this winter but I still find some runs of the GEFS and EPS have shown it a tad far west of where you want it I don't disagree in general, but wouldn't the big block give is a little more wiggle room? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 8 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: I don't disagree in general, but wouldn't the big block give is a little more wiggle room? Ask Brick about wiggle room! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 18z GFS looks money from day 14-16, as usual! Temps are iffy, but the wave train looks to be a rollin from the SW! If we can get cold, first of Fab Feb, could be money Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 Euro Control Run has a low run across C FL with 32 deg at Mack's house at 1PM on Sat Jan 28th....it's right where we want it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 If it's one signal I'll take over all others it's a positive pna. That being said it's only been posotive like 5 days during met winter back in December. Not sure it's going be extremely positive in a week or so, but somehow we are getting our windows of opportunities without it this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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