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Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent

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2 minutes ago, griteater said:

South of a line from Chattanooga to Cape Hatteras, the radar has looked straight horrid....guess it'll get going down east NC later on, but dang.  Where's the "What did we learn" thread? 

Lol this storm has been an interesting one. I barely have a dusting in Marion and even places about 3k feet are struggling to get more than an inch

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1 minute ago, griteater said:

South of a line from Chattanooga to Cape Hatteras, the radar has looked straight horrid....guess it'll get going down east NC later on, but dang.  Where's the "What did we learn" thread? 

Well I was hoping the feed would be more ENE or even NEE  instead of due East, that would have helped a lot. But I maintain that moisture was not the problem for me. I'm closing in on .3 qpf. With cold that could have been 3 inches and counting.  

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Just now, wncsnow said:

Lol this storm has been an interesting one. I barely have a dusting in Marion and even places about 3k feet are struggling to get more than an inch

The RGEM kept showing 0.2, 0.2, 0.2 for precip, but no, I ignored it

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1 minute ago, griteater said:

The RGEM kept showing 0.2, 0.2, 0.2 for precip, but no, I ignored it

The nam got my hopes up showing 4 to 6 inches here for multiple runs but it was nice watching it snow most of the day 

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1 minute ago, lilj4425 said:

It’s just too wet and warm for it to accumulate. 

It really is....everything just has to fall right when it's like that.  Things like, snow hard to get temps to crash and get that first layer down, snow when the sun is down, etc.

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6 minutes ago, griteater said:

It really is....everything just has to fall right when it's like that.  Things like, snow hard to get temps to crash and get that first layer down, snow when the sun is down, etc.

For me it's all about surface temps.  If you can't wet bulb down to 32 (preferably 30), it's just really hard to get good accumulating snow. My biggest take away this storm so far is I want my high pressure in the NE. Good strong CAD signal.  Cold air in place first.  Waiting for rain/rates to get snow is a losing battle 9 times out of 10. 

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Grateful to get the snow and watch it fall for the 3rd time this month, but I’d love to lay down an inch. Never satisfied 

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10 minutes ago, griteater said:

It really is....everything just has to fall right when it's like that.  Things like, snow hard to get temps to crash and get that first layer down, snow when the sun is down, etc.

Hey grit, how shallow is this warm nose here in the upstate? Is it just above the surface?

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5 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

Hey grit, how shallow is this warm nose here in the upstate? Is it just above the surface?

Just pulled an HRRR sounding for 4pm right around Greenville and it shows a very shallow warm layer at the surface and a warm nose that's maybe +0.5 C deg at 800mb

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Just now, griteater said:

Just pulled an HRRR sounding for 4pm right around Greenville and it shows a very shallow warm layer at the surface and a warm nose that's maybe +0.5 C deg at 800mb

Hard to believe there is an 800mb warm nose with such a meager system.  Usually only see that with amped up golf lows.

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9 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

For me it's all about surface temps.  If you can't wet bulb down to 32 (preferably 30), it's just really hard to get good accumulating snow. My biggest take away this storm so far is I want my high pressure in the NE. Good strong CAD signal.  Cold air in place first.  Waiting for rain/rates to get snow is a losing battle 9 times out of 10. 

It's tough getting that high in just the right spot.  If it's up over the NE, it can want to slide out too quick too, as you know.  Going back to that post I made the other day, it was in the mid-80's today in South Florida....so, I was OK with where the high was located - the bigger issue to me was the subtropical ridge was putting up a strong resistance to allowing the cold air to sink south.

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Yep not excited about this storm today.  We got maybe a half inch.  Never did stick to the roads.  I think I’m done.  Couldn’t even get two inches let alone three.  :facepalm:

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It's near impossible to predict how low level temps will play out with these systems.

 

A few weeks ago it was raining here and 41 degree's with no wetbulbing left, and 2 hours later it was 34 degree's and ripping snow at 11am.

Today we had extremely dry air work in in the 875-950mb range. 925mb wetbulbed down to -1C, seemingly leading a person to believe the low level above freezing layer could only be maybe 200 or 300 meters thick.  Yet, today we wetbulbed down to 37-38 at the surface and then the temp never budged, while it snowed/rained moderately for hours on end.

Part of it was definitely rates as I only wound up with 4/10th's of liquid for the storm, and all the shortrange models had me getting .6-.8inches of liquid.

Either way, it's really disappointing because I was more worried about the 800mb warm nose for my area and that actually wound up being South of what models showed by a few miles and was not a problem for us today. 

 

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On 2/18/2020 at 5:06 PM, Iceagewhereartthou said:

As expected,  looks to be plenty of moisture,  but cold is lacking or too slow for many. Going to be another "what could have been" for most of the upstate and NEGA.  May see a sloppy inch or so but by the time cold gets here most of the precip gone east. :( 

Lot of people in NC may be happy come Thursday night though. 

 

On 2/18/2020 at 6:01 PM, YetAnotherRDUGuy said:

No way man. We'll be in here whining about only getting 2''.:violin:

Yea so. I think I've got 2'', but no more than that. :whistle:

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It's near impossible to predict how low level temps will play out with these systems.
 
A few weeks ago it was raining here and 41 degree's with no wetbulbing left, and 2 hours later it was 34 degree's and ripping snow at 11am.
Today we had extremely dry air work in in the 875-950mb range. 925mb wetbulbed down to -1C, seemingly leading a person to believe the low level above freezing layer could only be maybe 200 or 300 meters thick.  Yet, today we wetbulbed down to 37-38 at the surface and then the temp never budged, while it snowed/rained moderately for hours on end.
Part of it was definitely rates as I only wound up with 4/10th's of liquid for the storm, and all the shortrange models had me getting .6-.8inches of liquid.
Either way, it's really disappointing because I was more worried about the 800mb warm nose for my area and that actually wound up being South of what models showed by a few miles and was not a problem for us today. 
 

Well said. My DP was in the lower 20 till around 11 when the precipitation started to come in. After that it shot up to over 35 and never went below 33.4.

Also I obtained .23” so the rates were light. When they were heavier ( 2:45- 4:45) it snowed!


.

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