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NNE Winter Thread

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The BTV NWS has their first projected accumulations map out for the event now as well.  Map and discussion text below:

 

10FEB17B.jpg

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

253 PM EST Fri Feb 10 2017

 

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

As of 253 PM EST Friday...Winter Storm Watch in effect for

aforementioned low pressure system bringing snow to the region.

BUFKIT time series still indicate possible heavy snow Sunday

evening into early Monday morning. PWATS forecast to be around

0.5 inch, which is consistent to yesterday`s runs. Differences

still exist in GFS and ECMWF on exact track and where the

surface low will be when the coastal low dramatically

strengthens Monday morning.

 

Areas with greatest potential for heavy snowfall will be the

Northeast Kingdom as GFS anomalies show 2-3 standard deviations

on eastward flow, supporting more moisture coming in from the

Atlantic Sunday night. With persistent easterly flow during the

first part of this event, some shadowing in the Champlain Valley

is possible. As winds shift north to northwest Monday morning,

upslope enhancement likely across the Adirondacks and Greens.

Winds at the surface expected to become gusty due to increased

pressure gradient as the coastal low. This low will be slow to

exit into the Atlantic as it becomes fairly stacked by mid day

Monday. This will equate to continued snow through the rest of

the day, for at least the eastern half of the forecast area.

 

While GFS has backed off on QPF amounts, ECMWF still showing

a generally three-quarters of an inch with NAM more in line

with ECMWF. When all is said and done, looking at widespread

storm total snow over 6 inches. with enhancement on easterly

flow, longer duration and then upslope enhancement on NW flow on

the backside of this system, areas outside the St Lawrence and

Champlain Valleys could see 8-12 inches. In the aforementioned

valleys, currently expected 6-8 inches. Changes in model low

track and timing of bombogenesis will affect snowfall amounts.

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1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said:

Welcome to C/NNE winter...

9.5F  at 1:30pm not bad...

What a great pattern.  Light snow coming up.  Bigger storm on Sunday.  Looks like another congrads to Maine as yet again VT miss out... but wait...eye candy...

Jeez!!!!  Look at the new 12Z Euro.  6 days away.  If this ever verified.  Eyewall your relocation to Vermont would finally be rewarded!!  Burlington's snow drought would finally come to a smashing end.   Wed to Thur a bombing low comes up the coast to a track over Boston to over Portland.  962mb over Portland.  What is that.  Cat 3?  That's the track we need for a big C/NNE storm.  It won't happen but wow if it did...

Edit...does anyone know what the lowest pressure of a cyclone ever was on a coast hugging track like this?  

 

I think one of the March 2005 storms had some mid-950s in the GOM.  Feb. 2, 1976 was along or just inland, and brought CAR its lowest reading on record, at 957.  (Also produced probably the most spectacularly bad road conditions I've seen as 1"+ rain was followed by temps plummeting 50F in 6 hr to below zero- 2nd thaw in a week so ditches/culverts were already ice-locked.  That's in addition to drowning 200 vehicles in downtown BGR.)

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ALY with a watch...not saying much, just that 7" or greater is possible

 

Winter Storm Watch
Issued: 3:17 PM EST Feb. 10, 2017 – National Weather Service
... Winter Storm Watch in effect from Sunday morning through
Monday evening... 

The National Weather Service in Albany has issued a Winter Storm
Watch... which is in effect from Sunday morning through Monday
evening.

* Locations... southern Adirondacks, Lake George Saratoga region,
  Mohawk Valley, capital region, Schoharie valley, central
  Taconics, Berkshires and southern Vermont. 

* Hazard types... heavy snow.

* Accumulations... greater than 7 inches of snow is possible. 

* Winds... wind gusts are expected to increase Sunday night through
  Monday that may result in blowing and drifting of snow.

Precautionary/preparedness actions... 

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow... sleet... or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.



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I can't believe I am in actual winter storm watch! That alone is a small victory LOL. The question is do I re-position to Stowe for this in case of shadowing? :)

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15 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I can't believe I am in actual winter storm watch! That alone is a small victory LOL. The question is do I re-position to Stowe for this in case of shadowing? :)

I feel like we just got an invitation to the dance everyone's been talking about.

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1 minute ago, ApacheTrout said:

I feel like we just got an invitation to the dance everyone's been talking about.

Hahah yeah I had to make sure those weren't mistakenly issued frost advisories at first.

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21 minutes ago, ApacheTrout said:

I feel like we just got an invitation to the dance everyone's been talking about.

I'll be the one by the cheese tray and punch bowl, bopping my head, and not talking while trying to play it cool.

 

f.jpg

S'up!

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3 hours ago, dendrite said:

Damn...LCI was 12F at noon and I've been hovering between 11-12F.

Had -1F here too.

Weird temperature last night.   I recorded a low of "only"  2.3F.  Friend of mine who is a NWS observer and lives in Bristol NH about 4 miles to my south and 600 feet lower had a -2.9F.  Brian had a -1F.   I totally understand that on calm radiational nights the lower elevations are colder but the winds were strong all night through the CAA.   Why would I be so relatively warm.  Any ideas?

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16 minutes ago, klw said:

I'll be the one by the cheese tray and punch bowl, bopping my head, and not talking while trying to play it cool.

 

f.jpg

S'up!

As long as I don't end up in the trunk of a car I'm ok with it. 

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3 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

Weird temperature last night.   I recorded a low of "only"  2.3F.  Friend of mine who is a NWS observer and lives in Bristol NH about 4 miles to my south and 600 feet lower had a -2.9F.  Brian had a -1F.   I totally understand that on calm radiational nights the lower elevations are colder but the winds were strong all night through the CAA.   Why would I be so relatively warm.  Any ideas?

There were some low elevations that were able to decouple and calm off just prior to sunrise. Orange MA pulled -15F

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Looks like BTV is going with a general 8"-14" across VT and another 2"-5" midweek. I've said it a million times but I'm happy with these types of accumulations. Consistent and persistent is how I like my snow. I don't need to be the jackpot. 

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I’ve added the latest advisory and accumulations maps from the BTV NWS below, which would be for Winter Storm Orson.  Winter Storm Watches now cover the entire area and there was a general bump in projected accumulations.

 

11FEB17A.jpg

 

11FEB17B.jpg

 

WWUS41 KBTV 110847

WSWBTV

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Burlington VT

347 AM EST Sat Feb 11 2017

 

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-112100-

/O.CON.KBTV.WS.A.0001.170212T1200Z-170214T0000Z/

Northern St. Lawrence-Northern Franklin-Eastern Clinton-

Southeastern St. Lawrence-Southern Franklin-Western Clinton-

Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Southwestern St. Lawrence-Grand Isle-

Western Franklin-Orleans-Essex-Western Chittenden-Lamoille-

Caledonia-Washington-Western Addison-Orange-Western Rutland-

Windsor-Eastern Franklin-Eastern Chittenden-Eastern Addison-

Eastern Rutland-

Including the cities of Massena, Malone, Plattsburgh, Star Lake,

Saranac Lake, Tupper Lake, Dannemora, Lake Placid, Port Henry,

Ticonderoga, Ogdensburg, Potsdam, Gouverneur, Alburgh,

South Hero, St. Albans, Newport, Island Pond, Burlington,

Johnson, Stowe, St. Johnsbury, Montpelier, Middlebury, Vergennes,

Bradford, Randolph, Rutland, Springfield, White River Junction,

Enosburg Falls, Richford, Underhill, Bristol, Ripton,

East Wallingford, and Killington

347 AM EST Sat Feb 11 2017

 

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING

THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

 

The National Weather Service in Burlington continues the Winter

Storm Watch for snow...from Sunday morning through Monday

evening.

 

* Locations...Northern New York and Vermont.

 

* Hazard Types...Snow...heavy at times.

 

* Accumulations...8 to 12 inches of snow.

 

* Maximum Snowfall Rate...up to 1 inch per hour...mainly Sunday

  evening into early Monday morning.

 

* Timing...Snow will spread into the region during the late

  morning and afternoon hours.

 

* Impacts...Snow covered roads and low visibilities will create

  hazardous travel conditions.

 

* Winds...Southeast 5 to 15 mph on Sunday becoming north to

  northwesterly 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph on Monday.

 

* Temperatures...Highs Sunday and Monday in the upper 20s to lower

  30s. Lows Sunday night in the upper teens to mid 20s.

 

* Visibilities...Less than one mile at times.

 

Precautionary/Preparedness Actions...

 

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant

snow...sleet...or ice accumulations that may impact travel.

Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

 

Please stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio...Your local media...or

Go to www.weather.gov/Burlington for further updates on this

weather situation.

 

$$

 

JMG

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I was surprised at the bump up. I fully expected a cut back but we shall see if the afternoon guys are less bullish.

Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk

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Event totals: 1.2” Snow/0.07” L.E.

 

There was ultimately just a tenth of an inch of accumulation with a trace of precipitation from yesterday’s moist northwest flow, and now we’re on to the weak clipper system affecting the area.  This morning’s snow and liquid analysis data are below.

 

Details from the 8:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 1.2 inches

New Liquid: 0.07 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 17.1

Snow Density: 5.8% H2O

Temperature: 12.9 F

Sky: Light Snow (1-2 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 11.0 inches

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Yeah...could be a weenie stretch if the next 48hrs and midweek pan out. The snowbans are already fairly high since little of the snow and sleet has actually been able to melt.

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Yeah...could be a weenie stretch if the next 48hrs and midweek pan out. The snowbans are already fairly high since little of the snow and sleet has actually been able to melt.

Yeah the depths in some spots will be nuts.  Noticed Carroll County already has a 30" spot on CoCoRAHS.  

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31 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah the depths in some spots will be nuts.  Noticed Carroll County already has a 30" spot on CoCoRAHS.  

Had 22" here this morning. Peak of the season so far.

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7 hours ago, mreaves said:

Looks like BTV is going with a general 8"-14" across VT and another 2"-5" midweek. I've said it a million times but I'm happy with these types of accumulations. Consistent and persistent is how I like my snow. I don't need to be the jackpot. 

Agree about the jackpot, just dont want to be totally left out the party. Kind of have to accept that we live in more nickel amd dime country. Although I wouldn't turn down TSSN and 4 -5" hour rates either.

When' s the last time MPV had a 12" storm? 

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3 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Our most likely is now 8" as opposed to 10" but the range in the warning was expanded. All in all I would say essentially no change.

 

ALY actually bumped mine to 14" up from 12" . Not complaining at all.

They have a nice disco about it and are definitely are honking pretty hard

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8 hours ago, mreaves said:

Looks like BTV is going with a general 8"-14" across VT and another 2"-5" midweek. I've said it a million times but I'm happy with these types of accumulations. Consistent and persistent is how I like my snow. I don't need to be the jackpot. 

I'd bet a non-zero amount of money that for the mountains, the mid week event equals if not exceeds Sun-Monday event. Just all wrong for more than 8" of mtn snow. Meanwhile that midweek event has 7" of perfect west wind driven pow all over it. 

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Well, the Winter Storm Watches were converted to wall-to-wall Winter Storm Warnings on the BTV NWS advisories map, so whatever happens, I’d say that’s the first time we’ve seen that in a while up here.  On the projected accumulations map there was a substantial expansion of areas with the 12-18” shading relative to the morning map.  Our point forecast here sums to roughly the 10-18” range, which is fairly consistent with the map.

 

11FEB17C.jpg

 

11FEB17D.jpg

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2 hours ago, adk said:

I'd bet a non-zero amount of money that for the mountains, the mid week event equals if not exceeds Sun-Monday event. Just all wrong for more than 8" of mtn snow. Meanwhile that midweek event has 7" of perfect west wind driven pow all over it. 

I'm going 8-12" total by noon Monday for my operational forecast.  0.75-1.0" QPF at the resort around 12:1 ratios.

I really like the look of tomorrow evening with 40kts out of the SE here.  We do well with that  flow.  It'll shut down a bit as it becomes east and I have no passion for a NE flow.  Maybe a little resurgence as it goes NNW but I freel that's for the Champlain Valley and west slopes with a more blocked flow than we've seen this season.  

I fully expect Adk to tell me he didn't think more than 6" on his morning skin but we'll find 9" on the sheltered snow plot haha.

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1 hour ago, eekuasepinniW said:

A little surprise radiational cooling has dropped me down to 6.7

LCI is the coldest in the state right now with 1F. Even colder than MWN.

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