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Model Mayhem!


SR Airglow

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2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I saw the AFD comments, but no one here's been making any hay of it.

Doesn't look like a big deal. It could ice for a while over the favored spots but it doesn't look like a classic high impact icing event. Just the "be careful driving" nuisance event. There's no replenishing of the cold and low dews that is a necessity for a higher impact event. 

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1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

Since no one is talking about it, is it safe to assume that the potential icing Monday night is a bunch of meh?

I mean the signal is there. 

NFZR006_gfs215F072.png

CIPS probably GGW for southern SNE for FZRA lasting more than 6 hours, but you get the idea. I'm keeping my eye on the confluence in Canada. If that can continue, we might see that high trend stronger and anchor. Both GFS and Euro have a secondary developing which would all but assure the cold won't get scoured.

Edit: 12z guidance finally dumped in, and as expected it pulled the higher probabilities northward into CNE. But there is something to keep an eye on.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Doesn't look like a big deal. It could ice for a while over the favored spots but it doesn't look like a classic high impact icing event. Just the "be careful driving" nuisance event. There's no replenishing of the cold and low dews that is a necessity for a higher impact event. 

Thanks--I was a bit concerned about my pre-dawn trip to Boston.

58 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don't see how every single model has this and they will be wrong.

That has been sticking with me as well.  Interestingly, it's showing as rain in coastal Maine, but they're calling for 1-3" there.

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2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Thanks--I was a bit concerned about my pre-dawn trip to Boston.

That has been sticking with me as well.  Interestingly, it's showing as rain in coastal Maine, but they're calling for 1-3" there.

Even the awful warm bias GFS showing this tells you it's going to snow. I'm not expecting 2", but it's def gonna get slick in the hills tonight 

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Rgem, GFS, NAM 3 and 4 k all drop 1-2" inches in all of elevated SNE 

I mean mostly elevated MA from that group, but I'm just not that excited. Saturation doesn't look great the farther SW you are, so snow growth will probably be on the poor side. And like I said, maybe your SW facing hills can get a little extra enhancement to whiten the ground.

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3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I mean mostly elevated MA from that group, but I'm just not that excited. Saturation doesn't look great the farther SW you are, so snow growth will probably be on the poor side. And like I said, maybe your SW facing hills can get a little extra enhancement to whiten the ground.

We white http://4679E490-4CF5-4DC3-9D58-C9120EBDCE94_zps

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