Zeus Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 1 minute ago, Powderboy413 said: I thought that was a good thing True warmth comes from within the heart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 1 minute ago, Powderboy413 said: I thought that was a good thing If it comes to fruition.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If it comes to fruition.. Not that it means much because there were only couple La Niña winters with 2 ssw events, 70-71 and 98-99. But they both had the warming events about 2 months apart. Correct me if I'm wrong but didnt we have one in early November this year as well? Just speculating though that's all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 30 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said: maybe the party was just moved to a later date.. It's also the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Googlymoogly Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 It's dead in here. How's xmas look? And beyond? Rough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 It's dead because long range does not have the swings and details like short term stuff has. Also, we have a storm to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Yeah the pattern thread always gets quieter when there's short term wx to track. But the pattern remains kind of ugly next week...though not hopeless as evidenced by the Euro's snowfall on the 23rd....but then it looked a little better in the 11-15....again not great, but WPO heights came up a little so there's some cold around in northern tier. We'll see what happens as we get closer after this next storm cuts past us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I've always thought January and March would be our best months. DT had a very cold January in his forecast. It's possible the stratosphere may try to warm again after significant reconsolidation of the PV in late December. I think Jan 1-10 could be rough, but the second half of the month could offer potential. I think we both agree on the potential for a great March with the ENSO warming forecasted by multiple models and past La Nina analogs...we have seen some cold/snowy Marches in La Nina like 1967, 1984, 2008, 2009 and 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 14 hours ago, nzucker said: DT had a very cold January in his forecast. It's possible the stratosphere may try to warm again after significant reconsolidation of the PV in late December. I think Jan 1-10 could be rough, but the second half of the month could offer potential. I think we both agree on the potential for a great March with the ENSO warming forecasted by multiple models and past La Nina analogs...we have seen some cold/snowy Marches in La Nina like 1967, 1984, 2008, 2009 and 2011. Yea, DT originally issued his outlook around halloween, but it proved too early, and he had to go back and revise it. His first outlook was more robust, but amended to be not quite as aggressive once he saw the propensity for low heights near AK,and formidable PAC jet persist. Persistent patterns like that take a long time to abate, which is why I was always skeptical of the very strong start that some started touting in mid November through December. His second edition was very similar to mine....iffy December, nice January and march, with a lame and mild Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 This is good news..seems like there's no torch..just a bit AN and if timed right like possibly the 23rd..we can still grab some snow Al Marinaro @wxmidwest 53m53 minutes ago @antmasiello @EricBlake12 The +AO reset can be good for the winter lovers, they just don't know it yet... 2 replies0 retweets5 likes Reply 2 Retweet Like 5 More Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 35m35 minutes ago @wxmidwest @EricBlake12 I am not on board for long duration warmup or torch either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: This is good news..seems like there's no torch..just a bit AN and if timed right like possibly the 23rd..we can still grab some snow Al Marinaro @wxmidwest 53m53 minutes ago @antmasiello @EricBlake12 The +AO reset can be good for the winter lovers, they just don't know it yet... 2 replies0 retweets5 likes Reply 2 Retweet Like 5 More Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 35m35 minutes ago @wxmidwest @EricBlake12 I am not on board for long duration warmup or torch either. 2 torchy storms on euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 2 torchy storms on euro. Op runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: This is good news..seems like there's no torch..just a bit AN and if timed right like possibly the 23rd..we can still grab some snow Al Marinaro @wxmidwest 53m53 minutes ago @antmasiello @EricBlake12 The +AO reset can be good for the winter lovers, they just don't know it yet... 2 replies0 retweets5 likes Reply 2 Retweet Like 5 More Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 35m35 minutes ago @wxmidwest @EricBlake12 I am not on board for long duration warmup or torch either. Tweets the hip looking dude with the goatee and winter hat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Op runs?Merry Torchmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Speaking of op runs.. Euro says what torch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Speaking of op runs.. Euro says what torch? Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Speaking of op runs.. Euro says what torch? Very brief and then back to cold Torch fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Are you guys looking at models? EPS is rather hostile after Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Are you guys looking at models? EPS is rather hostile after Christmas. Looks better as we head into new year's downstream taking time to respond to wpo ridge rebuild? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 I hadn't seen the ENS. Just thought they had looked better after day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Looks better as we head into new year's downstream taking time to respond to wpo ridge rebuild? Yeah heading to the NY looks better. But seems rather hostile between now and then unless you time something right. Usually a Bermuda high is not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah heading to the NY looks better. But seems rather hostile between now and then unless you time something right. Usually a Bermuda high is not good. Yeah i agree. If im riding the line and worried about rainstorms here then.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Stratospheric 10hpa temperatures should reach record lows at 90N in the next week, and near record lows at 60-90N around Christmas. The tropospheric regime is reflective of that w/ a +5 standard deviation AO next week. Accumulating snow (of the 3"+ variety) at the coast will be nothing short of a Christmas miracle over the next week to 10 days. If this year's vortex follows a progression congruous with prior similar historical cases, it will remain potent through all of January, with a weakening trend at the end of the month, followed by potential SSW attempt and/or significant weakening in the first half of February. That would induce tropospheric alterations such that Feb 5/10-end of winter delivers the most NAO / AO domain blocking of the season. This is all "a priori" of course, and we could very well have a strong vortex through March. However, historically, similar cases will yield at least a weakening in February, and thus probably our highest probability of protracted -AO/NAO is Feb/Mar. The VP is suggestive of a potentially very west based poleward ridge -- meaning dateline and westward, which would force some cold delivery into the N CONUS, but would be ineffective for our case in light of the mean NAM/NAO regime. Basically, what I'm saying is that I am skeptical that the poleward ridging - if it develops in a protracted fashion - will be sufficiently far east to induce a good pattern on the East Coast (esp coastal SNE southward) given the absence of Arc / Atl blocking. I could see chances like we had today, but as far as SECS+ potential, it would be tough. I'm searching for that seemingly elusive NAO/AO shake-up, which is probably far off at this point. We should punch the clock and begin wave-2 driving once the precursor pattern initiates over the next week, so convergence probably maximizes circa Jan 15th. Then we'll have to see the extent to which other forcings constructively or destructively interfere as it pertains to the subsequent vortex state in Jan 15-30. Fun pattern to forecast though for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Googlymoogly Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 End of Dec thoughts? Big diff on EURO and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 If it's any consolation .., you can kinda see how the sn pack protects the best it can under the circumstances. Draw a line from Boston to PVD and it struggles with 50 NW of that line but it's nearing 60 se Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 18, 2016 Author Share Posted December 18, 2016 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: If it's any consolation .., you can kinda see how the sn pack protects the best it can under the circumstances. Draw a line from Boston to PVD and it struggles with 50 NW of that line but it's nearing 60 se Except they got a lot of snow to the CT south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 41 minutes ago, weathafella said: Except they got a lot of snow to the CT south coast. Except that PVD-BOS line is not CT ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 18, 2016 Author Share Posted December 18, 2016 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Except that PVD-BOS line is not CT ... Well the interpretation was that snow slowed the 50s and it probably did but not for long and using BOS-PVD as the demarcation line for snow cover I think was spurious at least as of dawn today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Just now, weathafella said: Well the interpretation was that snow slowed the 50s and it probably did but not for long and using BOS-PVD as the demarcation line for snow cover I think was spurious at least as of dawn today. something is limiting the warmth penetration and all else being equal ..it's likely the snow pack in the interior. not hugely obviously no .. but there is 55+ line that slices roughtly PSM to NW RI... SE of there the warm air is more pronounced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 front's making progress... NW zones flashing back in the el - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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