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Oct 22/23rd Sat /Sun heavy rain, high wind, elevation upslope snow. All of New England

Ginx snewx

By Ginx snewx,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

not sure i follow - 

isallobaric wind doesn't have anything to do with LLJ/mxing mechanics.. 

it's strictly a mass-restoring response to intense perturbations - - this system has some ear-marks in earlier model runs of doing so, not so much. 

 

As the low deepens, you will also get a response in the lower levels at 925 and 850. I just mean that based on the deepening and the lower 3-4k winds that are modeled to respond, the best wind potential may be off to our SW. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Greens get crushed on the NAM tomorrow night and early Sunday. It will be interesting to see what happens...the less deep solutions definitely limit the amount of moisture on the back side, but something like the NAM would have some wrap-around synoptic which would obviously enhance any upslope stuff too.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

As the low deepens, you will also get a response in the lower levels at 925 and 850. I just mean that based on the deepening and the lower 3-4k winds that are modeled to respond, the best wind potential may be off to our SW. 

And also best CAA and DVM also there too. So best ingredients for perhaps 40kt+ gusts down there, but that area will move in and make it quite windy here later tomorrow and tomorrow night. Maybe even some flakes for ORH.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The GFS has a pretty good mid level area to in western MA and VT. It's definitely been hinted at on various runs and models.

Yeah it wasn't bad...the 06z run was kind of west though...best looked like W of Hudson, but it got a bit into S VT/W MA...the NAM was further southeast with the deepening ULL, so it would be better for getting some accumulations further east. That said, I'll be happy if I see a flake or two in ORH as I'll be there this weekend.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

As the low deepens, you will also get a response in the lower levels at 925 and 850. I just mean that based on the deepening and the lower 3-4k winds that are modeled to respond, the best wind potential may be off to our SW. 

gotcha - 

k, well... i was speaking of a wind acceleration potential from entirely different mechanical forcing.   as in the example: start with 980 pressure, ..have to get to 1020 mb in just 6 hours as low accelerates away, ... --> boom.  

anyway, modeling sort of backed off some upon the 'appeal' ... perhaps the NAM's 're'deepening means the idea isn't dead. 

seems like being dealt reverses though - soon as cogent observations are leveled...deliberately, the models prove the atmosphere is more metaphysically hateful than it is purely a physical process of nature. hahaha

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Greens get crushed on the NAM tomorrow night and early Sunday. It will be interesting to see what happens...the less deep solutions definitely limit the amount of moisture on the back side, but something like the NAM would have some wrap-around synoptic which would obviously enhance any upslope stuff too.

know what i was thinking..  that could simultaneously strip the foliage of straggler mass such that stenciling of snow on black limbs over white earth is left in the wake - it's like a 6 hour autumn then it's winter.   

weird.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it wasn't bad...the 06z run was kind of west though...best looked like W of Hudson, but it got a bit into S VT/W MA...the NAM was further southeast with the deepening ULL, so it would be better for getting some accumulations further east. That said, I'll be happy if I see a flake or two in ORH as I'll be there this weekend.

Yeah it kind of brings it in as a weakening area...definitely would help if it looked more like the NAM.  Check out the 700 fields and then up to 500. 500 is a classic TROWAL into western MA. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

nice, the NAM's 12z FRH gridded data for BTV - old school interpretation of those numbers is like 7" of thump for that site!  

wow.. 

i'm wondering where that ranks - should it occur - with climo for that region?   i would guess it to be ahead of the curve by a tad ...

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

nice, the 12z FRH gridded data for BTV - old school interpretation of those numbers is like 7" of thump for that site!  

wow.. 

i'm wondering where that ranks - should it occur - with climo for that region?   i would guess it to be ahead of the curve by a tad ...

 

Yeah BTV is not an easy place to get snow in October....different story with surrounding elevations, but on the valley floor that would be pretty rare. In fact, I'd bet they probably have never seen a 7 inch snowfall in October.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

nice, the 12z FRH gridded data for BTV - old school interpretation of those numbers is like 7" of thump for that site!  

wow.. 

i'm wondering where that ranks - should it occur - with climo for that region?   i would guess it to be ahead of the curve by a tad ...

Were it to come true, that would be the top October snow day at BTV. There have been 6 events with 2" or more, highest 5.1" 10/22/69.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Yeah BTV is not an easy place to get snow in October....different story with surrounding elevations, but on the valley floor that would be pretty rare. In fact, I'd bet they probably have never seen a 7 inch snowfall in October.

Yeah not with a huge lake that's still holding a ton of warmth that's upstream of BTV on a NW wind.  It would take like an October 2011 super-band to do it.

They do much better with bigger snows late season as the lake is often still at freezing even deep in April.  

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Suns out here

yeah not surprising...  hi res vis loops have been arguing for a swath of clear/partial to move across much of central/eastern zones...   seems a diffused sort of warm boundary is pressing N - 

the NAM wants to pinch it off as the low develops S and the wind backs again... but that's not happening just yet so we'll see. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

for the lay-person... 

that's basically 1.00 of liq equiv QPF in a snow column.

the numbers bolded on the left are .64 and .36 for the 6 hours leading up to that interval, 42 and 48 respectively.  So, 12 hours of 1.00" total - but, ...falling through 0C at the surface, -3C at the top of the boundary layer, and -4 to -5C between the 850 and 700 mb levels. 

not sure how else to interpret that... i figure even if half that .64 fall as pellets and cold rain/cats paw action, you're flipped over to ~ .4" in actual aggregates, followed by .36" more of continuing aggregates.  

granted, we're prooobably not getting 10:1 out of this thing, or maybe... hell, if it's that signaled on the valley floor (as Will intimated) ... jee wiz half way up the elevations!

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

fascinating multi-faceted system here...

plausible early blue bomb for the mid and upper Greens and even argued into the lower els up that way..

meanwhile, we seem to have warm barotropic intrusion coming into SE SNE...

There's definitely a secondary warm front that's pushed into the region.

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