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Ginx snewx

Oct 22/23rd Sat /Sun heavy rain, high wind, elevation upslope snow. All of New England

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

if the 12Z euro is right PF you will be taking turns for a week, another upslope reinforcing cold shot day 8

NWS concurs.  Free refills.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 350 PM EDT Thursday...The long term pattern will feature a general mid/upper level trof across the ne conus supporting below normal temperatures and terrain focused precip. Upslope parameters still look very favorable thru 18z Sunday with deep 850 to 500mb moisture and strong northwest flow of 35 to 50 knots...enhancing lift along the northern Dacks and western slopes. Additional qpf amounts will be a tenth to two tenths with highest amounts from Mt Mansfield to Jay Peak. Based on sounding profiles snow levels should be near the bases at 12z around 1500 feet...but lifting above 2000 feet before tapering off by 18z Sunday afternoon. Expecting only a minor additional snow accumulation. Progged 850 mb temps between -3 to -5c support highs only in the 20s mountains to mid/upper 40s warmer valleys. Large scale pattern supports additional free refills of mountain snow showers on Monday into Weds...as moisture and short wave energy rotates around mid/upper level trof across eastern Canada. The cyclonic flow through all levels will promote favorable upslope flow with terrain focused precip. Have mentioned high chance pops for mountains and slight chance elsewhere for Sunday Night into Weds. Progged 850mb temps stay below 0c and actually get colder during the early part of next week with values between -7c and -9c. Little too early for detailed snowfall amounts and qpf values...but would expect the mountains to stay white for through mid week. Eventually mid/upper level trof lifts and zonal flow aloft develops with temps returning closer to normal...for Thursday. Next system arrives on Thursday night into Friday with additional chances for precip. Overall temps are in the 20s to mid 30s mountains to mid 40s valleys with lows mainly in the lower 20s mountains to lower 30s valleys.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

HRRR with dumpage tomorrow in eastern areas.

Hi-res guidance is bullish. Globals naso much. NCAR ensemble, HRRR, NMM all like a nice plume to develop offshore and lift through SNE, and then up my way. 

The key difference is positioning of the LLJ. The GFS and Euro take it well wide and into Nova Scotia. The hi-res and CMC bring is right into the coast.

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35 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Hi-res guidance is bullish. Globals naso much. NCAR ensemble, HRRR, NMM all like a nice plume to develop offshore and lift through SNE, and then up my way. 

The key difference is positioning of the LLJ. The GFS and Euro take it well wide and into Nova Scotia. The hi-res and CMC bring is right into the coast.

Anytime you get LP rocketing from the Bahamas to the GOM in 24 hrs good luck on plume placement 

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Going to need to watch that second band of +RA somewhere in CT/ctrl MA through eastern areas. Good MUCAPE too means a rumble of thunder with narrow, but intense rain bands.

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50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Going to need to watch that second band of +RA somewhere in CT/ctrl MA through eastern areas. Good MUCAPE too means a rumble of thunder with narrow, but intense rain bands.

It's RI to you..again

CvQsahoWYAAgpgb.jpg

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40 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:


Tongue in cheek? Seriously, just watched local met ramble about hvy RN ending tomorrow night. Precip map had 1.09" give or take. that sucks.

Nah, you should get a soaking IMO.  What is wrong with at least 1"?

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35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nah, you should get a soaking IMO.  What is wrong with at least 1"?

I'll take any rain at this point. It's just there was a bit of local hype all week about this storm producing ~1.5-4" depending on location. As usual it seems the outcome is always less than predicted the closer we get, hence the lower output totals now. Just frustrated I guess despite not being able to do a think about it. ;)

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1 minute ago, Lava Rock said:

I'll take any rain at this point. It's just there was a bit of local hype all week about this storm producing ~1.5-4" depending on location. As usual it seems the outcome is always less than predicted the closer we get, hence the lower output totals now. Just frustrated I guess despite not being able to do a think about it. ;)

That's gonna happen, but it will be in a localized area which is always tough to predict. 

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Good signs for QPF queens this morning.

The upper jet is roughly following the white arrow below, with the core of strongest winds lifting through Quebec. That jet streak should induce a LLJ directed at New England this afternoon. Now that convection I circled is already ripping NW towards MTP, and could be part of that hose that the HRRR et al was showing last night.

WV.png

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Just now, OceanStWx said:

Good signs for QPF queens this morning.

The upper jet is roughly following the white arrow below, with the core of strongest winds lifting through Quebec. That jet streak should induce a LLJ directed at New England this afternoon. Now that convection I circled is already ripping NW towards MTP, and could be part of that hose that the HRRR et al was showing last night.

WV.png

Yep. AWT.

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P&C for Jay Peak:

Saturday Night
Rain before 10pm, then rain and snow between 10pm and 2am, then snow after 2am. Low around 30. Very windy, with a west wind 25 to 30 mph increasing to 35 to 40 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
Sunday
Snow showers, mainly before 11am. High near 35. Windy, with a west wind around 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
 

 

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i'm beginning to wonder if the NAM's going to be right ... isher, about the weaker over all deep layer mechanics with this whole ordeal. 

it's been on the weaker side of the guidance envelope with the core pressure/organization, which mitigated it's wind production compared to the "synoptic appeal" of the previous Euro and so forth.

coming into range of the FRH grid and Logon can't get a 30 kter in the BL isn't really (haha) blowing anyone's skirt up as a juggernaut wind maker. 

i had been toying with the isallobaric wind potential but the 00z Globals don't have the same sort of polish in their depictions, sort of appealing more like seasonally gusty than anything special. 

i'm also noticing that the cold (and 850 mb 0C) circumvallate is shrunk and not as persistently encompassing as far S as previous cycles, too.  i was concerned about that the other day, that as this came into shorter ranges (the general interval of time between tomorrow and next Wednesday) that the models would back off the magnitude of that specific parameter, cold.  it could still use some consistency with the 'back off' appeal, just sayn'.    ...no need to rush the season anyway... nonetheless, should still be a solid whitening in the midriff elevations and higher -

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23 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Some damaging winds would be nice, been a while. 

24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

It was... not so sure anymore.  

there's two different considerations for wind, though - 

the isallobaric acceleration of wind thing is different than general impressive CAA. 

the latter is has to do with more balanced flow (where the f term, Coriolis, in the equations of motions is fully factorable).  

the former has to do with pressure fall/rise couplets that take place faster than the integration of said Coriolis term, such that the wind appears to blow straight at the direction of the lowest pressure.

there are different circumstances in which that can set up.

one being explosive cyclogenesis - kerboom!  pressure turbo sucks down more than 12 mb in 4 hours (that should pretty much exceed the f time dependence).  in those extreme scenarios the wind doesn't 'feel' the exertion of the Coriolis force before motivates toward the 'hole' in the atmosphere with certain rapidity.

the other is not necessarily related to rapid deepening rates, but.. circumstantially, if a low is deepening even at normal rates of cyclogenesis (non-bombogenesis), while moving directly at a location, the translation speed of the low pressure 'quasi' balances the restoring inflow, such that the front side winds may be weak in that situation.  then, as the low moves over head and starts to pull away, ... the opposite effect happens and the pressure rise is more the culprit for getting the wind to blow increasingly non-collinear to the isobaric layout.

 

.... haah.  that should about clear it up ...

anyway, in simple terms, this had the appeal originally as being a goodly deepener that pulls away with a deep starting position of low pressure, and thus might have been the second option above.

but, some of these very recent solutions seem to be keeping the core pressure a bit more open and less consolidated - seems to be that the tropical entity is distracting the models some.  Oceanwx is right about the activation of the LLJ as a response to the ripper running up through western NY/SE Ontario... but, that's not related to the back side wind element (if anyone is wondering..).  but that all keeps the pressure a little higher and that tends to down size the isallobaric look considerably should that come to pass. 

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850 winds IMO never supported gusts much higher than 40kts in most areas. I don't see a huge area of 50kt+ 850 winds to raise my eye brow...at least yet. 

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