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Ginx snewx

Oct 22/23rd Sat /Sun heavy rain, high wind, elevation upslope snow. All of New England

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7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

yea the Dacks get really smacked it appears

They've got a higher average elevation too...like SLK ASOS at 1,600ft is the lowest point around in the center of the Dacks.  The town of Lake Placid at 2,000ft is plowing significant snow on that Euro run.

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Just now, powderfreak said:

They've got a higher average elevation too...like SLK ASOS at 1,600ft is the lowest point around in the center of the Dacks.  The town of Lake Placid at 2,000ft is plowing significant snow on that Euro run.

Theres a secondary push of cold air Monday night Tuesday that has an upslope component, time to break out Froude?

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53 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Theres a secondary push of cold air Monday night Tuesday that has an upslope component, time to break out Froude?

Ocean Effect Rain Showers for the Outer Cape Cod area on Tuesday night Wednesday.  850mb temps crash, 540 line southeast of us and 925mb temps around 2C.  Could be cold enough for OES at some point.  Also there is a clipper system for Monday.

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First mention of snow accumulation of the season in the zone forecast.

Saturday Night...Rain or snow showers. Light snow accumulation. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. 

Sunday...Rain or snow showers likely. Little or no additional snow accumulation. Highs in the lower 40s. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. 

Sunday Night...Rain showers likely or a chance of snow showers. Little or no additional snow accumulation. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

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Should be a narrow area of intense rain I think wherever that tropical low decides to interact with the CF. I sort of see where the 4KM NAM is coming from, but I think that also could be something out west like the euro has. Too early to see where that narrow area sets up, but I like the idea.

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47 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Should be a narrow area of intense rain I think wherever that tropical low decides to interact with the CF. I sort of see where the 4KM NAM is coming from, but I think that also could be something out west like the euro has. Too early to see where that narrow area sets up, but I like the idea.

You can see how POU -ALB- BTV get crushed under that first band and how ENE gets crushed along coastal front with showers in between 

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3 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Over a foot of snow for whiteface in mid October isn't very typical at all.  The ggem and Euro isn't your typical upslope snow in Vermont but a legit back side deformation band, I'm skeptical.

Really late October. Above 3,500' I wouldn't think it's that rare. Mt Washington (granted higher) had one of, if not its snowiest month ever in October 2005. Whiteface has the highest lift served terrain in the north east. 

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2 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Ocean Effect Rain Showers for the Outer Cape Cod area on Tuesday night Wednesday.  850mb temps crash, 540 line southeast of us and 925mb temps around 2C.  Could be cold enough for OES at some point.  Also there is a clipper system for Monday.

maybe in January.

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Have no idea what the Euro is smoking, its an outlier but holy crap if its 4-5 inches of rain in Ct and foot of snow in the Mts happens. Tossed as Kev would say

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15 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Really late October. Above 3,500' I wouldn't think it's that rare. Mt Washington (granted higher) had one of, if not its snowiest month ever in October 2005. Whiteface has the highest lift served terrain in the north east. 

Yeah this isn't that uncommon at all IMO.

October 2008 is a good analog for this storm but with slightly colder thermal profiles.

This is reported storm totals for that event.  Adirondacks got deform band heavy snow while VT got upslope on the backside.  Highest totals in VT were 12" at Mansfield and 11" at Jay Peak.

totalsnowamts.png

Pretty similar set up but warmer this time so snow will be more elevation and localized than that event most likely.

image.jpeg

HPC_regional_SFC_21z_102808.gif

image.jpeg

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Have no idea what the Euro is smoking, its an outlier but holy crap if its 4-5 inches of rain in Ct and foot of snow in the Mts happens. Tossed as Kev would say

NAM keeps moving East.   Almost there now. ENE to Maine gets it

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On 10/19/2016 at 8:34 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Take the way under on the rain in SNE. Most of the rain will fall west as usual..and if the tropical low gets involved far ENE up into Maine will be the other rain winner. Friday SNE is warm sectored with dews well into the 60's. 

Should be a wild weekend at Jay Peak though for snow

 

CvIPOXJWAAUCwhn.jpg 

Good call

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59 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah this isn't that uncommon at all IMO.

October 2008 is a good analog for this storm but with slightly colder thermal profiles.

This is reported storm totals for that event.  Adirondacks got deform band heavy snow while VT got upslope on the backside.  Highest totals in VT were 12" at Mansfield and 11" at Jay Peak.

totalsnowamts.png

Pretty similar set up but warmer this time so snow will be more elevation and localized than that event most likely.

 

I saw the discussion about the frequency of these October snowstorms and was thinking along the same lines – it’s not that unusual.  Checking my data, we’ve had at least some sort of frozen down at our house in valley in each of the last 10 Octobers, and with the huge elevation gradient with respect to snowfall at this time of year due to temperatures, if we’re getting frozen precipitation (and a majority of the time even accumulation) at 500’, you know the mountains are going to be accumulating easily.  I wouldn’t say that getting something in the range of 2’+ of snow is the norm in October storms, but if I had to ballpark it based on perception, I’d say to expect something in the 6-12” range most Octobers.  I think we don’t have as good a sense for the frequency of occurrence and accumulations with these October events because the ski areas aren’t really reporting snow totals yet, and the accumulations are typically up in elevation and the general population doesn’t talk about it much.

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NAM/GFS actually show a decent amount of dry air wrapping into the system and overhead.  Probably see one narrow axis of heavy rainfall...perhaps out by the Cape?  Of course well west too just ahead of the cold front.  

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25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Thanks Noreaster 09!

CvOJlUJVMAIiVl9.jpg

On 10/19/2016 at 8:34 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Take the way under on the rain in SNE. Most of the rain will fall west as usual..and if the tropical low gets involved far ENE up into Maine will be the other rain winner. Friday SNE is warm sectored with dews well into the 60's.

3 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Good call

Thanks Noreaster 09!

 one of these things is not like the other

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11 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The rain begins.

Is this bright banding?  Rough circular band around the radar site?

image.gif

I believe so. You can see the melting layer on CC.

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What a Dack destroyer on the euro. I wonder if upslope helps to compensate a bit over the Greens. IOW, maybe temps in the lower 3-4K cool off a bit more with the help of enhanced UVM from the upslope and mid level fronto on the west side of the Greens. Might even benefit W-central VT a bit more as they are suited to be in colder air and closer to mid level fronto.

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13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What a Dack destroyer on the euro. I wonder if upslope helps to compensate a bit over the Greens. IOW, maybe temps in the lower 3-4K cool off a bit more with the help of enhanced UVM from the upslope and mid level fronto on the west side of the Greens. Might even benefit W-central VT a bit more as they are suited to be in colder air and closer to mid level fronto.

Euro really cranks the upslope Sun Am all the way to Petes house , wow

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