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weathafella

And we begin

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A little too early for me for watching snow. The SAI (Snow Advance Index) targets Eurasian snow advance south of 60N during month of October--or is it weeks 40-44, which is October 7th-November 4th? I forget exactly which. So too much snow advance before then would not be in cold/snow lovers' favor.

What does intrigue me right now is Arctic sea ice extent, which bottomed out a few days ago and whose minimum was second lowest on record. Could be pointing toward big Siberian snow advances when we want them, especially with the ice extent near the Barents/Kara seas below average. I wonder though if the minimum occurring earlier than usual and sea ice extent already recovering could throw a bit of a wrench in the works?

6a0133f03a1e37970b01b7c8928d29970b.png

Figure9bg.png

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6 hours ago, billgwx said:

A little too early for me for watching snow. The SAI (Snow Advance Index) targets Eurasian snow advance south of 60N during month of October--or is it weeks 40-44, which is October 7th-November 4th? I forget exactly which. So too much snow advance before then would not be in cold/snow lovers' favor.

What does intrigue me right now is Arctic sea ice extent, which bottomed out a few days ago and whose minimum was second lowest on record. Could be pointing toward big Siberian snow advances when we want them, especially with the ice extent near the Barents/Kara seas below average. I wonder though if the minimum occurring earlier than usual and sea ice extent already recovering could throw a bit of a wrench in the works?

6a0133f03a1e37970b01b7c8928d29970b.png

Figure9bg.png

I typically make the decision to start the thread when ice has passed the minimum.  Snow will come.

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On 9/13/2016 at 1:36 PM, billgwx said:

A little too early for me for watching snow. The SAI (Snow Advance Index) targets Eurasian snow advance south of 60N during month of October--or is it weeks 40-44, which is October 7th-November 4th? I forget exactly which. So too much snow advance before then would not be in cold/snow lovers' favor.

What does intrigue me right now is Arctic sea ice extent, which bottomed out a few days ago and whose minimum was second lowest on record. Could be pointing toward big Siberian snow advances when we want them, especially with the ice extent near the Barents/Kara seas below average. I wonder though if the minimum occurring earlier than usual and sea ice extent already recovering could throw a bit of a wrench in the works?

6a0133f03a1e37970b01b7c8928d29970b.png

 

The earliest sea ice min on record, by far. Likely the result of a strong upper level cyclone, but wow this is impressive and significant - because we've reversed that positive feedback process a week earlier than normal

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On 9/15/2016 at 3:15 PM, OKpowdah said:

 

The earliest sea ice min on record, by far. Likely the result of a strong upper level cyclone, but wow this is impressive and significant - because we've reversed that positive feedback process a week earlier than normal

also the "slush pool" in the central arctic basin being vulnerable to a quick refreeze

amsr2-extent-regional.png

9/4 near the min

asi-AMSR2-n6250-20160904-v5_visual.png

 

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On September 12, 2016 at 10:09 PM, weathafella said:

Gains today.

 

yesterday vs today.  In any case-we're close enough.image.gifimage.gif

 

 

 

 

4 days after the thread started...

 

 

 

image.gif

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Nice breakdown by region forky! Where did you find them? Can we see them for years prior?

From my understanding, the regions off Eurasia are the more important ones as far as precursor signal for Eurasian snow cover extent/advance next month and mean wintertime AO. The Barents/Kara/East Siberian Seas all look in prime shape, but is the Laptev Sea not playing nice? :lol:

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Wow--snow cover extent in Siberia so far is running way ahead of 2015. And too much too early south of 60N is not necessarily a good thing for winter cold/snow lovers. The Snow Advance Index (SAI), which correlates with mean wintertime AO better than total Snow Cover Extent (SCE), measures Eurasian snow advance S of 60N during weeks 40-44, which begins October 3rd.

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6 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

It appears HM's still riding the +qbo, la nina mild winter train.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

hm

  winter of  13-14   HM  did the same thing ...

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15 hours ago, DTWXRISK said:

  winter of  13-14   HM  did the same thing ...

This isn't 13-14 and the fall pattern is already showing that out. It will have its fun, but it will also have its breaks.

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On 10/15/2016 at 6:53 PM, Daniel Boone said:

It appears HM's still riding the +qbo, la nina mild winter train.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

hm

 

On 10/16/2016 at 1:11 AM, DTWXRISK said:

  winter of  13-14   HM  did the same thing ...

I'm not sure where you are getting the words to put in HM's mouth, but his own research suggests the opposite. La Nina forcing with +QBO = cold 

http://ionlyusethegfs.blogspot.com/2012/04/qbo-aleutian-high-relationship.html

 

As for 13-14, I vividly recall in October he was concerned for warmth, as were a lot of us, because the PDO looked like it was turning sharply neg, until the "blob" came back and he reversed course in Novy. Also, As that research above shows, the QBO/Aleutian high relationship works best when the Nina forcing is stronger, which we didnt have going into the witner so it was a concern. The NE Pac seemed to help bail us out that winter big time. 

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1 hour ago, NJwinter23 said:

 

I'm not sure where you are getting the words to put in HM's mouth, but his own research suggests the opposite. La Nina forcing with +QBO = cold 

http://ionlyusethegfs.blogspot.com/2012/04/qbo-aleutian-high-relationship.html

 

As for 13-14, I vividly recall in October he was concerned for warmth, as were a lot of us, because the PDO looked like it was turning sharply neg, until the "blob" came back and he reversed course in Novy. Also, As that research above shows, the QBO/Aleutian high relationship works best when the Nina forcing is stronger, which we didnt have going into the witner so it was a concern. The NE Pac seemed to help bail us out that winter big time. 

 

Just to add, Nina forcing/+QBO couplet doesn't necessarily result in cold by itself, as I'm sure you meant. Cooperation from the NAM and NAO is also very helpful of course. +QBO/Nina forcing years like 1971-72, 1999-00, 75-76, come to mind; although, some were stronger Nina's. The sample size isn't excellent either.

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