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September 2016 General Discussion


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Dewpoint has been as low as 32 this afternoon.  Almost 40 degrees less than yesterday.  DVN has put out a special weather statement in regards to high fire danger in area farmland.  Crops are dry now, so conditions have become favorable for quickly spreading fires if they were to be ignited.  A month ago the farmland was about as flammable as Lake Michigan, so a dramatic change to the landscape since then.

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Just now, Stebo said:

Still your area isn't a representation of the airport and vice versa.

Not gonna argue that. I'm scanning Wundermaps to see a few PWS's just outside the built up area to get a general idea of the area without the pavement.

PWS's are good for low temps, they suck for high temps. Just for fun anyhow.

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1 minute ago, Jonger said:

Not gonna argue that. I'm scanning Wundermaps to see a few PWS's just outside the built up area to get a general idea of the area without the pavement.

PWS's are good for low temps, they suck for high temps. Just for fun anyhow.

It depends how calibrated they are, plus your airport in town would have a better representation with better equipment.

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Just now, Stebo said:

It depends how calibrated they are, plus your airport in town would have a better representation with better equipment.

I default to KOZW for climate. My own PWS's are just for S&Gs.

Lansing is a better official climate site for my location than DTW, so I generally reference that if we are talking official numbers. Howell is sort of in no man's land.

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1 minute ago, Chicago WX said:

Good mixing brought dews down to 29˚ for a short time here yesterday. Almost felt like a shock after really muggy summer. 

Tomorrow might be a little raw with temps struggling to hit 60˚, and with on and off showers. But, it's about that time of the year...

Yep, a typical autumn low closing off and meandering around, creating some less than pleasant weather.

Might be a little fire weather issue today with low dews and gusty winds.

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The Cedar River had been forecast to crest at 25.5 ft, then gradually lowered to 24 and 23.  This morning the nws caved again and dropped it to 22.  It appears to be cresting now at about 21.9 ft.  The temporary levies that were built should easily do the job and it appears for most people in the flood zone this will only be an inconvenience.  The 2008 flood crested at 31 ft thanks to last-minute heavy rain/flash flooding and caught the city by surprise.  The current flood is nothing compared to 2008.

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today already delivering

 

wind whipped soaker, funnels off shore, best climo

 

Upper level low pressure that is very well defined on water vapor
imagery will gradually pinwheel south through tonight. 850 mb
temperatures in the single digits causing steep low level lapse
rates as well as broad large scale ascent will favor isolated to
scattered brief showers inland. Near the lake, an impressive
lake effect/thermodynamic setup is in place with equilibrium
levels over 20kft AGl and at or above 500 j/kg of lake induced
CAPE. This is due to the aforementioned cold temperatures aloft
over the still mild lake waters (69F at the south buoy). As
result, periods of banded lake effect showers and even the
potential for an isolated rumble of thunder. Furthermore, the
thermodynamic setup is also very favorable for waterspouts, with
some observed relatively close to shore this morning and this
continued potential exists into the evening.

RC

 

 

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1 hour ago, LoveSN+ said:

Hey guys, been lurking for a year or so. Just wanted to say hi and that I will likely start posting more frequently!

 

Anyways, been loving the weather lately. Got up to 62 F today here in Champaign, but really felt much cooler with that stout NW wind.

This is a very pro-snow forum, you will be right at home.

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