griteater Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 August Euro Seasonal shows near normal temps and precip over the southeast....with above normal temps in the southwest states Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 Here's what I've got as a summary of what the seasonal models are showing as of their August release... Consensus at the moment is for ENSO negative neutral, positive PDO, and -AMO (cold north atlantic just south of Greenland / Iceland). As for ENSO, I think we could see anything from negative neutral to moderate La Nina. ENSO likes to ebb and flow, so it's difficult to pin down the specifics regarding strength and base location (Central Pacific or East Pacific). Weak Nina is probably the best call for now, with a slight lean toward a central Pacific base. My thinking on the PDO is that it would likely be in the neutral range for winter...however, the models are gung ho at the moment with keeping an overall +PDO look. And the models are gung ho with a -AMO look over winter, which would seemingly support the idea that a +NAO pattern has prevailed during winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 The thing about this Nina is even if the temp #'s show Nina conditions, the actual SSTA structure still doesn't look anything like a nina or "pre-nina" right now. That tiny little ribbon surrounded by + anoms on all sides isn't going to force anything meaningful. Of course we have a long ways to go before making any declarations and things could certainly ramp up but I've been pretty unimpressed since the Nina talk started. Models have continuously backed off for months and most of the pre-spring barrier runs were way off in the speed of progression. The latest euro plumes actually show potential for neutral + or even Nino temps. Which is crazy considering how much of a "lock" this Nina was supposed to be. The April plumes show how far off verification has been so far. Nino 3.4 has verified much warmer than the mean. The current overall Pac anomaly structure looks nothing like any recent Nina or even neg neutral year. 13-14 had much more expansive equatorial neg anomalies in August and that ended up being barely neg neutral. This year has some similarities to August of 2005. 05-06 got real close to a Nina classification but didn't make it. I'm not sold on ENSO being a primary driver this year but I'm just guessing of course. We have plenty of time for things to change but so far the flip to a Nina has underperformed by quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 Bob/Grit...agree with everything you guys said above. But, we have just been boiling for some time with this strong+ nino, it seems this nino is not wanting to die and will think this AN temps are just going to continue. Can't remember who posted this, maybe it was Grit, but think it will be a couple of more years before we are out of this mess (multi-year nina). Although for you Bob, you guys seem to be doing just fine, it's the golden age of snow for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 8 minutes ago, packbacker said: Bob/Grit...agree with everything you guys said above. But, we have just been boiling for some time with this strong+ nino, it seems this nino is not wanting to die and will think this AN temps are just going to continue. Agree Pack. I believe the overall background state is one that is a bit on the warm side due to remnants of the big nino. I don't know, just a thought. Nice post Bob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 How did you guys do in 2013-14? CFS has been showing a similar h5 longwave pattern lately. I think another -EPO/+NAO winter on the means is possible. Could have a nino hangover effect and have the stj show some activity. To be honest I'm pretty pessimistic on snow for the MA this year but that's just a guess. I really don't have any real thoughts on what to expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 33 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: How did you guys do in 2013-14? CFS has been showing a similar h5 longwave pattern lately. I think another -EPO/+NAO winter on the means is possible. Could have a nino hangover effect and have the stj show some activity. To be honest I'm pretty pessimistic on snow for the MA this year but that's just a guess. I really don't have any real thoughts on what to expect. It was a good year for my area. I personally would take a repeat: http://www.weather.gov/rah/events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted August 20, 2016 Share Posted August 20, 2016 21 hours ago, packbacker said: Bob/Grit...agree with everything you guys said above. But, we have just been boiling for some time with this strong+ nino, it seems this nino is not wanting to die and will think this AN temps are just going to continue. Can't remember who posted this, maybe it was Grit, but think it will be a couple of more years before we are out of this mess (multi-year nina). Although for you Bob, you guys seem to be doing just fine, it's the golden age of snow for you guys. I went back and looked at similar years Aug-July that torched and the winters following since 1980, ignoring base state and just about everything else. The results are terrible. The top 2 years are 11-12 and 05-06 All years together N=6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 20, 2016 Share Posted August 20, 2016 34 minutes ago, Jon said: I went back and looked at similar years Aug-July that torched and the winters following since 1980, ignoring base state and just about everything else. The results are terrible. The top 2 years are 11-12 and 05-06 All years together N=6 Yep...nothing points to this being a BN winter. Although, two of our snowy winters were fluke storms in AN winters (00/02). Atleast most will be going into this winter with no expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 20, 2016 Share Posted August 20, 2016 1 hour ago, packbacker said: Yep...nothing points to this being a BN winter. Although, two of our snowy winters were fluke storms in AN winters (00/02). Atleast most will be going into this winter with no expectations. Haha yeah right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 20, 2016 Share Posted August 20, 2016 Well, temperature wise, we are typically worse off in Super Ninos and Mod/Strong Ninas....so there, rejoice Temp data since 1879-1880. For calculating the departures, I used a moving 30yr climo. For example, for winter 1930-31, I used the temp climo from 1901-1930. I used SON-JFM for ENSO determination via Eric Webb's Ensemble ONI - http://weatheradvance.com/home/weather/weatheradvance.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Ensemble-Oceanic-NINO-Index-ENS-ONI-Raw-Data-1865-2016-2.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 20, 2016 Share Posted August 20, 2016 3 hours ago, Jon said: I went back and looked at similar years Aug-July that torched and the winters following since 1980, ignoring base state and just about everything else. The results are terrible. The top 2 years are 11-12 and 05-06 All years together N=6 Only one word that can be published without censorship comes to mind (and it's not even a word): But as always, Jon, thanks for the research and input! You are a bank vault for this Board! Best, Phil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 20, 2016 Share Posted August 20, 2016 One thing we know is that December has to colder than last winter. So I'm wondering if we end up with another fab February to save the winter. It seems that month has been our best month for last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted August 21, 2016 Share Posted August 21, 2016 One thing we know is that December has to colder than last winter. So I'm wondering if we end up with another fab February to save the winter. It seems that month has been our best month for last few years. Hope for a neutral to weak Nina then, moderate Ninas torch the SE in Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 22, 2016 Share Posted August 22, 2016 Remember last year when folks were doing all this research and 99% of them were saying the southeast should see a big winter with more than average snowfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted August 22, 2016 Share Posted August 22, 2016 On 8/20/2016 at 2:14 PM, griteater said: Well, temperature wise, we are typically worse off in Super Ninos and Mod/Strong Ninas....so there, rejoice Temp data since 1879-1880. For calculating the departures, I used a moving 30yr climo. For example, for winter 1930-31, I used the temp climo from 1901-1930. I used SON-JFM for ENSO determination via Eric Webb's Ensemble ONI - http://weatheradvance.com/home/weather/weatheradvance.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Ensemble-Oceanic-NINO-Index-ENS-ONI-Raw-Data-1865-2016-2.txt Wow this is a really neat dataset and very unexpected. Assuming that the rest of NC is similar to Charlotte it seems that in the main that we depend on El Ninos for our colder than normal winters. But if its a "Super Nino", run for the hills. I wonder what the mechanism is for the difference is between the results for Strong and Super. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted August 22, 2016 Share Posted August 22, 2016 On 8/19/2016 at 3:01 PM, Bob Chill said: How did you guys do in 2013-14? CFS has been showing a similar h5 longwave pattern lately. I think another -EPO/+NAO winter on the means is possible. Could have a nino hangover effect and have the stj show some activity. To be honest I'm pretty pessimistic on snow for the MA this year but that's just a guess. I really don't have any real thoughts on what to expect. Yeah some guys on AccuWeather site posted current SST's and how they match up very closely with Aug 13 SST's. Too lazy to try and pull the graphics. Although only one "driver, it can be an important "driver." 13/14 was a good winter in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted August 22, 2016 Share Posted August 22, 2016 Here in the Southwest, large parts of NM/AZ are having a "cold" August, which is pretty rare (7/58 years from 1931-2015) in August for La Nina or even Neutral: 1933, 1974, 1988, 1999 (La Nina) 1967, 1989, 1990 (Neutral) We also had a blazing hot June-July (even by our standard) - which again is somewhat rare (12/58 years) in La Nina / Neutral years. The flip from stupidly warm in July to stupidly cold in August is very rare in the SW, but I find that the transition to July->Aug holds some keys to the winters out here. So anyway, our hot Julys: 1954, 1983, 1995, 2005, 2011 (La Nina) 1934, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1981, 1993, 2003 (Neutral) We get so little rain here that is possible to analog pretty well off raw temp/precip totals for winter - so I would offer that the cold season will function like the "hot July" years from ~Oct 10 - Jan 10, before switching to the "cold Aug" years ~Jan 11 - Apr 10. Cold early...in the SE Warm late in the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 22, 2016 Share Posted August 22, 2016 SE Cold early, warm late. The reverse is true. Works every time (almost). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 I found this linked in JB's Twitter site: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/08/24/a-way-too-early-look-at-next-winters-weather/?postshare=8421472090014783&tid=ss_tw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted August 27, 2016 Share Posted August 27, 2016 Well after actively following the fiasco down in the Bahamas the last few days/week, I figured we might as well take another look at the upcoming winter. I'm not sure where to look, but can anyone comment on the state of the dying el nino? My hopes are that it holds on a bit longer than expected - just enough to juice up a few systems early this winter. Thanks, TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 CFS not very enthused about a La Nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 On 8/21/2016 at 8:53 PM, cbmclean said: Wow this is a really neat dataset and very unexpected. Assuming that the rest of NC is similar to Charlotte it seems that in the main that we depend on El Ninos for our colder than normal winters. But if its a "Super Nino", run for the hills. I wonder what the mechanism is for the difference is between the results for Strong and Super. I made some slight edits/adjustments and added Asheville & Raleigh...here's the compare: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Griteater nice graphs. It will be hard to beat last year's horrendous winter around here. I still think mild and above average temps this winter but hopefully not as bad as last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 On August 18, 2016 at 6:49 PM, griteater said: The Nina peak has weakened slightly over the last few months on the IRI model composite...showing a very weak Nina at the moment. What are we looking at for this winter? -neutral/neg ENSO,+PDO, low solar, +QBO, +AMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 What are we looking at for this winter? -neutral/neg ENSO,+PDO, low solar, +QBO, +AMOLooking like neg neutral or weak Niña right now. +QBO. PDO is positive but lowering. Cool ENSO with +QBO would favor a poleward Aleutian High and a lowering PDO, but I think Pac pattern is a wildcard and will be variable if ENSO stays neutral. Consensus I see from Mets/Enthusiasts/Seasonal models is that AMO will be trending negative with more cold anomalies developing in N ATL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Solar Flux at solar min levels and still declining - solar cycle not at minimum levels for another year or 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 10 hours ago, griteater said: Looking like neg neutral or weak Niña right now. +QBO. PDO is positive but lowering. Cool ENSO with +QBO would favor a poleward Aleutian High and a lowering PDO, but I think Pac pattern is a wildcard and will be variable if ENSO stays neutral. Consensus I see from Mets/Enthusiasts/Seasonal models is that AMO will be trending negative with more cold anomalies developing in N ATL That combo is ugly. But, if you go with cool ENSO, +QBO and +PDO... Looks like Euro/UK and seasonals keep the +PDO, along with CFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 15 hours ago, griteater said: Looking like neg neutral or weak Niña right now. +QBO. PDO is positive but lowering. Cool ENSO with +QBO would favor a poleward Aleutian High and a lowering PDO, but I think Pac pattern is a wildcard and will be variable if ENSO stays neutral. Consensus I see from Mets/Enthusiasts/Seasonal models is that AMO will be trending negative with more cold anomalies developing in N ATL Over the last 30+ days there has been a very steady drop in the PDO. We are clearly seeing a changing regime in the North Pacific, very different from what we have seen since early 2013. The consistent super positive PDO is on its way out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 55 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Over the last 30+ days there has been a very steady drop in the PDO. We are clearly seeing a changing regime in the North Pacific, very different from what we have seen since early 2013. The consistent super positive PDO is on its way out Not so sure...I am surprised we haven't seen a complete pac flip but so far the nina hasn't materialized as we thought either. Will be curious what Aug PDO # is, I would guess it gets posted this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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