Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

[Sandstorm94]

The Arctic is looking rather impressive this year compared to how the last decade has been...

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[GaWx]

On 8/17/2022 at 10:10 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Update:

NSIDC SIA was 4.00 million sq km on 8/16. Here's how other post-2007 years compared on the same date:

2021: -230k

2020: -960k

2019: -920k

2018: -220k

2017: -310k

2016: -740k

2015: -480k

2014: +620k

2013: +140k

2012: -1.06 million (-1060k)

2011: -650k

2010: -50k

2009: +50k

2008: -240k

2007: -750k

 This latest area update brings 2022 back up a decent amount vs the average of 2007-21. It is now at +390K vs the prior 15 year average for the date as compared to +330K as of three days ago. Since the July 12th update, the comparison has been in a pretty narrow range of +320K to +480K. 
 

Recap of current area vs avg. of last 15 years as of:

6/15/22: +70K

6/16/22: +120K

6/20/22: +240K

6/22/22: +140K

6/29/22: -140K

7/1/22:     +70K

7/10/22:  +250K

7/12/22:  +370K

7/16/22:  +330K

7/20/22:  +360K

7/23/22:  +480K

7/26/22:  +460K

7/30/22:  +440K

8/7/22:    +320K

8/10/22:  +390K

8/13/22:  +330K

8/16/22:  +390K

[ORH_wxman]

Update:

 

On 8/18, NSIDC SIA was at 3.97 million sq km. Here's how other post-2007 years compared on the same date:

 

2021: -280k

2020: -1.00 million (-1000k)

2019: -920k

2018: -170k

2017: -530k

2016: -770k

2015: -590k

2014: +520k

2013: -10k

2012: -1.12 million (-1120k)

2011: -660k

2010: -240k

2009: +10k

2008: -270k

2007: -870k

 

[ORH_wxman]

I decided to compare the other 2 closest years to this one to see if we can try and gauge how close we will finish. 2009 and 2013 are both within 10k of 2022 for sea ice area.

 

 

 

At first glance to me, I think 2022 has more vulnerable ice than both of those years. 2022 has a more pronounced "arm" of ice into the ESS than those years had and that arm is usually vulnerable to additional melt into September if other years are any gauge. The one offsetting factor might be lower concentration ice really high in latitude near the pole....this will refreeze into 100% concentration ice very quickly in September even as the "ESS arm" continues to melt. So this would help offset the East Siberian losses at least partially.

 

2009 min was 3.55 million sq km and 2013 min was 3.61 million sq km. My guess is 2022 finishes below both of these, but I think it's very likely we'll finish higher than 2018 which was the 4th highest finish (3.23 million sq km) since 2007 only behind 2009, 2013, and 2014.....btw the latter year, 2014, had a big falloff from it's current position to finish in between 2009 and 2013 at a min of 3.58 million sq km.

[GaWx]

49 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Update:

 

On 8/18, NSIDC SIA was at 3.97 million sq km. Here's how other post-2007 years compared on the same date:

 

2021: -280k

2020: -1.00 million (-1000k)

2019: -920k

2018: -170k

2017: -530k

2016: -770k

2015: -590k

2014: +520k

2013: -10k

2012: -1.12 million (-1120k)

2011: -660k

2010: -240k

2009: +10k

2008: -270k

2007: -870k

 

 This latest area update brings 2022 up a good amount more vs the average of 2007-21. It is now at +460K vs the prior 15 year average for the date as compared to +390K as of two days ago. Since the July 12th update, the comparison has been in a pretty narrow range of +320K to +480K. So, it is now near the top of that range:
 

Recap of current area vs avg. of last 15 years as of:

6/15/22: +70K

6/16/22: +120K

6/20/22: +240K

6/22/22: +140K

6/29/22: -140K

7/1/22:     +70K

7/10/22:  +250K

7/12/22:  +370K

7/16/22:  +330K

7/20/22:  +360K

7/23/22:  +480K

7/26/22:  +460K

7/30/22:  +440K

8/7/22:    +320K

8/10/22:  +390K

8/13/22:  +330K

8/16/22:  +390K

8/18/22:  +460K

[ORH_wxman]

Update:

On 8/21, NSIDC SIA was 3.93 million sq. Here's how other post-2007 years compared on the same date:

 

2021: -300k

2020: -1.09 million (-1090k)

2019: -870k

2018: -300k

2017: -540k

2016: -820k

2015: -380k

2014: +320k

2013: -30k

2012: -1.18 million (-1180k)

2011: -780k

2010: -100k

2009: +190k

2008: -270k

2007: -900k

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Update:

On 8/21, NSIDC SIA was 3.93 million sq. Here's how other post-2007 years compared on the same date:

 

2021: -300k

2020: -1.09 million (-1090k)

2019: -870k

2018: -300k

2017: -540k

2016: -820k

2015: -380k

2014: +320k

2013: -30k

2012: -1.18 million (-1180k)

2011: -780k

2010: -100k

2009: +190k

2008: -270k

2007: -900k

 This latest area update has 2022 at about the same as three days ago vs the average of 2007-21. It is now at +470K vs the prior 15 year average for the date. Since the July 12th update, the comparison has been in a pretty narrow range of +320K to +480K. So, it is now near the top of that range:
 

Recap of current area vs avg. of last 15 years as of:

6/15/22: +70K

6/16/22: +120K

6/20/22: +240K

6/22/22: +140K

6/29/22: -140K

7/1/22:     +70K

7/10/22:  +250K

7/12/22:  +370K

7/16/22:  +330K

7/20/22:  +360K

7/23/22:  +480K

7/26/22:  +460K

7/30/22:  +440K

8/7/22:    +320K

8/10/22:  +390K

8/13/22:  +330K

8/16/22:  +390K

8/18/22:  +460K

8/21/22:  +470K

[ORH_wxman]

Update:

On 8/24, NSIDC SIA was 3.76 million sq km. Here's how other post-2007 years compared on the same date:

 

2021: -300k

2020: -1.01 million (-1010k)

2019: -890k

2018: -140k

2017: -450k

2016: -870k

2015: -200k

2014: +350k

2013: +130k

2012: -1.09 million (-1090k)

2011: -730k

2010: -90k

2009: +100k

2008: -320k

2007: -710k

[ORH_wxman]

On 8/29, NSIDC SIA was 3.50 million sq km....this actually drops it below the 2009, 2013, and 2014 minimums which I had speculated was likely earlier in this thread based on what the outstanding remaining ice looked like. The next question is whether it can drop below 2018's minimum of 3.23 million sq km (I think this is still unlikely due to the low concentration near the pole which will start to refreeze in the next 5-7 days).

Here's how other post-2007 years compared on the same date:

2021: -240k

2020: -790k

2019: -520k

2018: -70k

2017: -340k

2016: -780k

2015: -150k

2014: +260k

2013: +340k

2012: -1.05 million (-1050k)

2011: -380k

2010: -230k

2009: +240k

2008: -170k

2007: -340k

[Typhoon Tip]

Thought you sea-ice hobbyists might find this interesting...

https://phys.org/news/2022-08-greenland-ice-sheet-faster-irreversibly.html

It's land based snow/ice and not really specific to arctic sea ice, but ...seeing as the N Polar cap doesn't have the southern continent upon which is saddles the ice, ( like Antarctica) I think it's worth it to consider Greenland's capacity for storage and release in the total manifold of the northern cap.   We should be including the sea ice gain loss with the Greenland quota - or at least exhibiting interest in both.

[GaWx]

5 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

On 8/29, NSIDC SIA was 3.50 million sq km....this actually drops it below the 2009, 2013, and 2014 minimums which I had speculated was likely earlier in this thread based on what the outstanding remaining ice looked like. The next question is whether it can drop below 2018's minimum of 3.23 million sq km (I think this is still unlikely due to the low concentration near the pole which will start to refreeze in the next 5-7 days).

Here's how other post-2007 years compared on the same date:

2021: -240k

2020: -790k

2019: -520k

2018: -70k

2017: -340k

2016: -780k

2015: -150k

2014: +260k

2013: +340k

2012: -1.05 million (-1050k)

2011: -380k

2010: -230k

2009: +240k

2008: -170k

2007: -340k

 This latest area update for 2022 shows the most dramatic change in two months. In comparing to the 2007-21 average for the date, 2022 has dropped all of the way down to +280K vs the +470 just eight days ago. This is the lowest it has been in relation to the prior 15 year mean since way back on July 10th:
 

Recap of current area vs avg. of last 15 years as of:

6/15/22: +70K

6/16/22: +120K

6/20/22: +240K

6/22/22: +140K

6/29/22: -140K

7/1/22:     +70K

7/10/22:  +250K

7/12/22:  +370K

7/16/22:  +330K

7/20/22:  +360K

7/23/22:  +480K

7/26/22:  +460K

7/30/22:  +440K

8/7/22:    +320K

8/10/22:  +390K

8/13/22:  +330K

8/16/22:  +390K

8/18/22:  +460K

8/21/22:  +470K

8/29/22:  +280K

[NEOH]

On 8/30/2022 at 2:51 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Thought you sea-ice hobbyists might find this interesting...

https://phys.org/news/2022-08-greenland-ice-sheet-faster-irreversibly.html

It's land based snow/ice and not really specific to arctic sea ice, but ...seeing as the N Polar cap doesn't have the southern continent upon which is saddles the ice, ( like Antarctica) I think it's worth it to consider Greenland's capacity for storage and release in the total manifold of the northern cap.   We should be including the sea ice gain loss with the Greenland quota - or at least exhibiting interest in both.

Read an article that the Greenland ice sheet gained 7 Gigatons of mass in just one day  — the largest daily gain ever recorded during the summer.

 

[BuffaloWeather]

6 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Read an article that the Greenland ice sheet gained 7 Gigatons of mass in just one day  — the largest daily gain ever recorded during the summer.

 

http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/

[chubbs]

15 hours ago, NEOH said:

Read an article that the Greenland ice sheet gained 7 Gigatons of mass in just one day  — the largest daily gain ever recorded during the summer.

 

8/30 and 8/31 at Freya glacier in eastern Greenland roughly 3000'.  The interesting weather continues next week with a big melt event to kick off the accumulation season.

[ORH_wxman]

Update:

NSIDC area remains at 3.50 million sq km....same as 2 days ago (technically 5k higher as 2 days ago it was 3.496 and today is 3.501).

I highly doubt the minimum has been reached as 8/29 would be the earliest minimum on record (1992 had a min on 8/31). But we'll see if it can drop low enough to get below 2018's 3.23 million sq km minimum. I would bet against that at the moment, but there is a chance we could see one last burst of increased melting with the East Siberian Sea arm of ice still vulnerable.

Here's where other post-2007 years stand now:

 

2021: -320k

2020: -740k

2019: -530k

2018: -130k

2017: -430k

2016: -840k

2015: -170k

2014: +260k

2013: +290k

2012: -1.05 million (-1050k)

2011: -480k

2010: -230k

2009: +170k

2008: -250k

2007: -390k

 

 

[chubbs]

 

[csnavywx]

On 9/1/2022 at 9:52 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Update:

NSIDC area remains at 3.50 million sq km....same as 2 days ago (technically 5k higher as 2 days ago it was 3.496 and today is 3.501).

I highly doubt the minimum has been reached as 8/29 would be the earliest minimum on record (1992 had a min on 8/31). But we'll see if it can drop low enough to get below 2018's 3.23 million sq km minimum. I would bet against that at the moment, but there is a chance we could see one last burst of increased melting with the East Siberian Sea arm of ice still vulnerable.

Here's where other post-2007 years stand now:

 

2021: -320k

2020: -740k

2019: -530k

2018: -130k

2017: -430k

2016: -840k

2015: -170k

2014: +260k

2013: +290k

2012: -1.05 million (-1050k)

2011: -480k

2010: -230k

2009: +170k

2008: -250k

2007: -390k

 

 

A solid year, right up there, if not quite as good as '09 and '13. Looking at EOSDIS and AMSR, this year is definitely being held up by that now-typical ESAS arm and a remnant Beaufort arm. I was kinda hoping we'd see more of the Beaufort survive since that's where the real MYI nursery was in the past. But alas, looks like most of that got melted anyways. I think that July dipole kinda took it from a '13 kind of year and knocked it down a peg in that sector. Seems to be the key difference between the pre-and-post-2007 era. Well that and the surface warming and shoaling of Atlantic water in the Barents area.

[ORH_wxman]

Update:

On 9/6, NSIDC SIA fell to 3.2 million sq km...this puts 2022 slightly below 2018's 3.23 million sq km minimum. The low concentration ice near the pole has yet to refreeze which allowed the losses on the periphery to add up enough to pass 2018.

The next one on the list is 2021 which had a min of 3.16 million sq km.

 

As for extent, the NSIDC extent is currently at 4.85 million sq km. We'll see how much lower this goes in the next few days...we haven't had a min above 4.8 million sq km since 2014 (though last year was close at 4.72 million sq km). My guess is we drop below 4.8 million sq km and perhaps below last year as well, but no guarantees.

[bluewave]

Scientists will look back on 2007-2012 as when the Arctic shifted to a whole new climate state defined by persistently low multiyear ice. So none of the slower melt years like this one could reach pre-2007 extent years above 6.00 million sq km. But the faster melt years like 2020 couldn’t surpass the 2012 minimum. It’s more of a static pattern over the last 10 years. 
 

 

[ORH_wxman]

Update:

NSIDC SIA was 3.24 million sq km on 9/11.....this is 40k above the minimum of 3.20 million sq km several days ago. There is still a chance we could set a new minimum being that close, however, the lower concentration ice near the pole is starting to rapidly freeze and there have been some slight gains in the Beaufort over the weekend, so this will make it hard to dip much more....the losses in the still-vulnerable ESS will have to be higher than the gains elsewhere.

 

NSIDC extent currently sits at 4.82 million sq km. This is slightly above the min (so far) of 4.80 million sq km. This has a better chance than area to dip back below the min, but no guarantees on that either.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Update:

NSIDC SIA was 3.24 million sq km on 9/11.....this is 40k above the minimum of 3.20 million sq km several days ago. There is still a chance we could set a new minimum being that close, however, the lower concentration ice near the pole is starting to rapidly freeze and there have been some slight gains in the Beaufort over the weekend, so this will make it hard to dip much more....the losses in the still-vulnerable ESS will have to be higher than the gains elsewhere.

 

NSIDC extent currently sits at 4.82 million sq km. This is slightly above the min (so far) of 4.80 million sq km. This has a better chance than area to dip back below the min, but no guarantees on that either.

What are the main impacts for us from greater concentrations of sea ice? Potentially better source region?

[bluewave]

Similar finish to last year with near a 5 million sq km September average extent. 
 

 

[ORH_wxman]

12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What are the main impacts for us from greater concentrations of sea ice? Potentially better source region?

I'm not sure it affects us that drastically once winter comes around. The entire arctic ocean save for maybe near the Bering Strait is long frozen by that point.....but fast refreeze could lead to colder airmasses earlier in fall. There's some research that all the latent heat release from fast refreeze could affect the height pattern up there in different ways, but it's still pretty marginal attribution at the moment.

[ORH_wxman]

Update:

NSIDC area stood at 3.28 million sq km on 9/15. There is a good chance we've reached the minimum already, but we're still close enough (80k higher than min) that we can't call it quite yet.

NSIDC extent continues to fall though, down to 4.65 million sq km. So we likely haven't reached the min yet on extent.

 

I'll do a full verification of earlier prediction on 7/1 once both area nd extent min have been reached.

[ORH_wxman]

Update:

We've reached the minimum on NSIDC area....area on 9/18 was 3.47 million sq km which is 270k higher than the minimum so far this year. Losing 270k after 9/18 hasn't happened in the record and there's no reason to think this year will be different looking at the weather up there. So the minimum will go down as 3.2 million sq km on 9/12.

 

Extent may or may not have reached the minimum yet. Extent on 9/18 stood at 4.68 million sq km. This is currently 60k above the minimum of 4.62 million so far this month, so there is still a low probability we fall back below that 4.62 million sq km number, but it's becoming more unlikely by the day. If extent rises over the next couple of days, we can probably safely call it.

[Weatherdude88]

PIOMAS northern hemisphere sea ice volume has been flat for the past decade (averaged volume January - August).

 

 

[forkyfork]

wow we lost a lot since 1980

[A-L-E-K]

bust

[ORH_wxman]

On 7/5/2022 at 9:48 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Update:

On 7/1, the NSIDC SIA sootd at 7.07 million sq km. Here's how other years compared on the same date:

2021: -70k

2020: -510k

2019: -450k

2018: +320k

2017: +10k

2016: -240k

2015: +130k

2014: +260k

2013: +340k

2012: -650k

2011: -210k

2010: -380k

2009:+640k

2008: +220k

2007: -400k

 

For the minimum Sea ICe Area prediction, we can use prior years' melt out from July 1st onward to estimate how this tear will turn out because there hasn't been much of a trend in ice loss after 7/1....the big trend has been prior to 7/1. We have maybe seen a slight increase in melt from 7/1 since 2007, so I will weight those years more.

Below is a table of how 2022 would turn out if it followed previous years' melt out from 7/1 onward....

 

 

For example, if we used 1989's ice loss from here on out, we'd finish at 2.66 million sq km. 2016 had the highest meltout beyond 7/1 on record, and would produce a final SIA min of 2.55 million sq km if we followed that path in 2022. You'll note that the record year of 2012 is only like 4th or 5th most ice loss from 7/1 onward which means most of the damage was done prior to 7/1. We can pretty much rule out a new record this season based on this data. We'd need to obliterate the post 7/1 loss record set in 2016 to achieve it. A top 3 lowest min is probably out too.....likewise, a top 3 highest min in the post-2007 context is likely out as well....though another 2010 from here on out would achieve it. All other post-2007 years would fail, however.

 

All that said, the average ice loss from 7/1 onward in the post-2007 era is 4.09 million sq km which would produce a 2022 min of 2.98 million sq km (7.07 million minus 4.09 million). I'm going to stick very close to this number and go with a final minimum of 3 million sq km +/- 300k. I might hedge a little higher if the forecast was colder on the Beaufort/CAA side over the next week but they will continue to see mild weather so I will stick with 3 million.

 

Final extent prediction is a lot harder than area because extent relies a lot upon compaction/dispersion which is really hard to forecast. But that said, usually something in the 3 million sq km range for area will produce an extent min on NSIDC of around 4.5-4.8 million sq km. So I will go with 4.6 million +/- 500k....I have larger error bars on the extent. (side note: JAXA extent usually comes in around 200k lower than NSIDC extent after their algorithm update post-2013....so I will not be using Jaxa to verify this prediction. Only NSIDC daily extent)

Update and verification of prediction earlier this season:

On 9/20, the NSIDC extent had risen to 4.75 million sq km which puts it 130k above the minimum of 4.62 million sq km several days ago. It is pretty safe to call the minimum at 4.62 million sq km. This extent is 7th highest (or 9th lowest) since 2007. Both 2017 and 2018 finished at 4.63 million sq km.....barely higher than 2022.

Area continues to rise too now at 3.6 million sq km, but we reached the minimum on that 9 days ago at 3.2 million sq km. The 3.2 million sq km area minimum ranks 5th highest since 2007....only 2009, 2013, 2014, and 2018 were higher.  The reason area ranked higher than extent was that the ice pack was more compact this season than other years like 2021 and 2017 which had lower area numbers but higher extent minimum.

 

The predictions quoted above were for area to finish at 3.00 million sq km (+ or - 300k) and for extent to finish at 4.6 million sq km (+ or - 500k). Verification fell within these predictions (and almost exactly for extent), so I am glad to see that the meltponding continues to be a very accurate predictor of minimum extent/area.

 

I don't do predictions for volume, but PIOMAS volume minimum has likely been reached as well at 5039 cubic km.....which is the 10th lowest in the record. It is the highest minimum volume since 2015.

[bluewave]

Great job from the statistical Arctic sea ice modeling team. The early June forecast was just a little on the low side but still good for such a long lead time. It corrected higher as the months went on. So another September average extent in the 4s. This has become the new normal since 2007 with 11 out of the last 16 years in this range.

2022….4.87

2021……4.92

2020……3.92

2019……4.32

2018…...4.71

2017……4.87

2016……4.72

2015…..4.63

2014…..5.28

2013…..5.35

2012…..3.60

2011……4.61

2010…..4.90

2009….5.36

2008….4.67

2007…..4.28