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Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume


ORH_wxman
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On 10/6/2021 at 11:33 AM, bluewave said:

Multiyear ice finishes at 2nd lowest on record with extent in 12th place.
 

 

 

2020 was the second lowest sea ice extent minimum value on record. This is why 2021 northern hemisphere multi year ice ranked as second lowest at minimum (0 - 1 year).

Now that the freezing season has started, the remaining ice is now all multi year ice (greater than 1 year old). So if we finish next melting season in a similar place, multi year ice may be in approximately 12th place. 

The above statement, highlights the recovery from the 2020 melting season VS. the 2021 melting season.

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8 hours ago, Weatherdude88 said:

2020 was the second lowest sea ice extent minimum value on record. This is why 2021 northern hemisphere multi year ice ranked as second lowest at minimum (0 - 1 year).

Now that the freezing season has started, the remaining ice is now all multi year ice (greater than 1 year old). So if we finish next melting season in a similar place, multi year ice may be in approximately 12th place. 

The above statement, highlights the recovery from the 2020 melting season VS. the 2021 melting season.

The record winds during the winter transported the MYI into the Beaufort giving it more chance to melt out during the summer. 
 

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Despite September total ice extent being high compared to recent years, the amount of multiyear ice as assessed from ice age (Figure 5e) reached a near-record low, with an extent of only 1.29 million square kilometers (498,000 square miles), just slightly above the value of 1.27 million square kilometers (490,000 square miles) at the end of the 2012 melt season.

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The Arctic Oscillation has averaged negative since the beginning of August. The average for August and September is a -.232 deviation. We also appear to likely be in store for another La Nina winter. The PV has been sliding towards the Siberian side of the arctic. If this trend continues, 2022 may see a melting season with thicker ice on the Siberian side of the arctic than the previous melting seasons. The freezing season is looking quite robust for generating thick ice at high latitudes.

If we can average a negative AO for DJF, we could be looking at the robust northern hemisphere cryosphere entering the 2022 melting season is the last decade. 

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I'm not sure what the significance of this may be ... how situational/conditional it is, just to this season, but that is a big difference in a single year to year/by date comparison of sea ice coverage.

image.png.5040d5bdc6c3e5aeeeaccace016fcf43.png

The SSTs of the expose Beaufort Sea are naturally very cold, even in the summer... so it is "conditionally" set up for rapid re-freeze. But in order to do so, still requires the pattern in the air-ocean coupled environment to support the phase transition to ice. 

Obviously there are a lot of textured complexities in the total manifold of forcing mechanisms ... some that included Time as a function ... Comparing one season to the next is risky.   But that's a huge difference there between these years.   Eye-ballin', larger than TX

 

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On 10/17/2021 at 12:38 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm not sure what the significance of this may be ... how situational/conditional it is, just to this season, but that is a big difference in a single year to year/by date comparison of sea ice coverage.

image.png.5040d5bdc6c3e5aeeeaccace016fcf43.png

The SSTs of the expose Beaufort Sea are naturally very cold, even in the summer... so it is "conditionally" set up for rapid re-freeze. But in order to do so, still requires the pattern in the air-ocean coupled environment to support the phase transition to ice. 

Obviously there are a lot of textured complexities in the total manifold of forcing mechanisms ... some that included Time as a function ... Comparing one season to the next is risky.   But that's a huge difference there between these years.   Eye-ballin', larger than TX

 

Definitely a huge difference year over year.

 

Values ADS NIPR VISHOP JAXA 21-10-19.jpg

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  • 1 month later...

Heyy about right on time to start showing the positives. Seems like data is always cherry picked anymore since you were focusing on how high Antarctica was over summer now at some of its lowest levels in satellite era and the fact that the Arctic was essentially on the road to recovery. Ice just getting obliterated down there as they head into summer. But hey the Arctic seems to be doing ok right! Never mind CAA is doing horrendous for this time of year which is usually the last place to really get hit in intense summers and its close by regions of Baffin Bay, Hudson Bay, Greenland Sea and Beaufort Sea just struggling hard right now.

So annoying to see when folks only post the good and not the bad but this stuff happens when the mid latitudes roast and get into some wild patterns of persistence. Anyway hope it stays this way cause one decent SSW or storms coming into Bering Sea or Atlantic front could ruin the day real quick. We may see a rather extensive halt in sea ice expansion come mid December if things play out as many seem to think it will. Lets watch and see.

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On 11/23/2021 at 7:01 AM, so_whats_happening said:

Heyy about right on time to start showing the positives. Seems like data is always cherry picked anymore since you were focusing on how high Antarctica was over summer now at some of its lowest levels in satellite era and the fact that the Arctic was essentially on the road to recovery. Ice just getting obliterated down there as they head into summer. But hey the Arctic seems to be doing ok right! Never mind CAA is doing horrendous for this time of year which is usually the last place to really get hit in intense summers and its close by regions of Baffin Bay, Hudson Bay, Greenland Sea and Beaufort Sea just struggling hard right now.

So annoying to see when folks only post the good and not the bad but this stuff happens when the mid latitudes roast and get into some wild patterns of persistence. Anyway hope it stays this way cause one decent SSW or storms coming into Bering Sea or Atlantic front could ruin the day real quick. We may see a rather extensive halt in sea ice expansion come mid December if things play out as many seem to think it will. Lets watch and see.

It's pretty remarkable the ice extent is closer to the 1990's average than 2016. Obviously a lot can change in the arctic quickly. 

index.php?action=dlattach;topic=3370.0;attach=329090;image

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6 hours ago, NEOH said:

It's pretty remarkable the ice extent is closer to the 1990's average than 2016. Obviously a lot change in the arctic quickly. 

index.php?action=dlattach;topic=3370.0;attach=329090;image

Its great to see of course. Although im not sure remarkable is appropriate yet. If we can hold an average season without any big shake ups and push into this summer holding strong I will start using remarkable (I know sounds pushy). For now it is good to see that the Arctic is holding it's own. I still worry as we go into mid December signs of ridging poking into the Bering and the Atlantic front, good thing for mid latitudes bad up there.

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17 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Chukchi sea froze over faster than any year since after the 2012 monster melt. The difference is 2021 also has refrozen on the Atlantic side very fast unlike that 2012 autumn. That's why we're more like the early 2000s right now for extent

I might be wrong, but it looks like Hudson Bay is still mostly unfrozen?  In past years, I think it is pretty iced up by now and that counts to the area #.  Area is pretty high considering the Bay has pretty much no ice.  

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12 minutes ago, FPizz said:

I might be wrong, but it looks like Hudson Bay is still mostly unfrozen?  In past years, I think it is pretty iced up by now and that counts to the area #.  Area is pretty high considering the Bay has pretty much no ice.  

Yes Hudson Bay is lagging badly....the arctic ocean though and adjacent seas are way ahead of recent years.

Hudson Bay had no ice at this point in 2016, 2012, 2010, 2006, and 2003 too, so while rare, it isn't unheard of.

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35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes Hudson Bay is lagging badly....the arctic ocean though and adjacent seas are way ahead of recent years.

Hudson Bay had no ice at this point in 2016, 2012, 2010, 2006, and 2003 too, so while rare, it isn't unheard of.

Yes, Hudson Bay is noticeably lagging but it's northern reaches are beginning to freeze over as permanent night begins.   It won't take long to catch up.  

 

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Im not Chris but yes with the exception of the stretch from about 2015 to 2017 (wonder what could have enhanced that, hmmm lol). If we go by the idea of about 30 years on average for signals to flip we should be close by about mid 2020's and by 2030 area we should be on a more positive regime. Not to say it follows it exactly though.

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Arctic taking hits now extent and area have slumped for now but with prospects of ridging pushing into the Bering sea and ESS/ Chuchki as well as along the Atlantic front we will likely continue the stall or have ever slight gains over the next couple weeks its still cold up there just not as cold. The cold gets displaced over land most notably the North American side could see quite the cool down take shape outside of just Alaska and Western Canada. We have dropped back down again to the 2010's average so still keep running along that path since end of melt season. 

Globally though wow at the Antarctic right now. Some of its lowest values since 2016 taking hold which is dropping extent and area globally to almost the edge of the 2SD region. Still not as bad as 2016 as the Arctic has not taken a major hit this season, yet.

Im sure ill get the lil hotdog thing everyone seems to cherish so much on this site.

Global_Graph_full.png

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  • 4 weeks later...

Annual mean sea ice extent came in at 10.547e6 km2 for 2021.  Even with a relativity great year it is still about 5% below the 1991-2020 climatological average of 11.082e6 km2. That is 9th lowest in the 42 year satellite record and if we use Walsh et al. 2016 we can extend that back 170 years. This is the first year since 2015 since annual mean sea ice extent was > 10.5e6 km2. Remember, back in 2001 the IPCC predicted that this threshold would not be crossed until about 2040. It first happened in 2007 and then again 7 other times prior to 2021. It is pretty remarkable to think that with the pattern we've seen in the Arctic this year we should have seen anomalously high extents yet we still almost dropped below this threshold again.

 

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We just need this so dubbed 'Dooms day glacier' to go ahead and unleash the back-held weight of a small continent in ice, ...and have it cataclysmically slide one afternoon into the sea...  effectively setting off a global two foot tsunamis that doesn't go back out to sea.

 

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  • 2 weeks later...
  • 4 weeks later...
On 1/10/2022 at 11:58 AM, lee59 said:

Good to see Arctic sea ice extent the highest since 2012. Actually above the 2010s average.  Of course the question is, will it last.

Multiple La Nina’s cooling the globe in the past 10 years. They won’t keep up with AGW though. There will likely be a big melt like 2012 in the next five years and the bar will set even lower. 

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On 1/1/2022 at 6:14 AM, chubbs said:

Doesn't look great to me. Very unscientific analysis - the trend since 2004 is much more uncertain than the trend since 1979; and doesn't look negligble either. Note that volume anomaly is higher in winter.

BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrentV2.1.png

If he's tweeting it, it's a sure sign that we're near the top. These folks usually come out of the woodwork right before it tanks. Great contrarian signal if nothing else.

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