donsutherland1 Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 On 7/30/2021 at 8:49 PM, Weatherdude88 said: Slater Probabilistic Sea Ice extent showing 5.15 million square kilometers on September 18th. It's very possible NSIDC sea ice extent minimum will be greater than 5 million square kilometers, given current NSIDC area and compaction at high latitudes. Remember, we are ahead of 2013 in area for the date. 2013 had a minimum of 5.10 million square kilometers of extent. Just as had been the case last year, the Slater model performed horribly. Had one taken the mean 2010-2020 decline from the date the model forecast was generated, one would have had a vastly better idea of minimum extent. That figure was 4.4 million square kilometers (JAXA). The SIA had an implied minimum of 5.15 million square kilometers. Now that Arctic sea ice extent has increased for 3 consecutive days, it is likely that the 9/12 figure of 4,612,915 square kilometers will be the 2021 minimum. That will be the highest minimum extent since 2014 when the minimum extent was 4,884,120 square kilometers. The last figure at or above 5 million square kilometers was more than a decade ago in 2009. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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