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Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume


ORH_wxman
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The near record low multiyear ice is one of the reasons that a favorable summer for sea ice retention can’t come close to pre-2007 levels.

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Multiyear ice near record low

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/2021/08/Figure4a-week31-350x254.jpg

Figure 4a. This graph shows the near record-low amount of multiyear ice in the Arctic as of week 31 (July 30 to August 5) of the 2021 melt season, comparing this year to the same week in previous years of the satellite record that began in 1979. Historical data through 2020 are provided by Tschudi et al., 2019a and quicklook data for 2021 by Tschudi et al., 2019b 

Credit: Robbie Mallett 
High-resolution image

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/2021/08/Figure-4b-MYI-350x265.jpg

Figure 4b. This graph compares the area of multiyear ice in the Arctic between 2021, 2020, and the average from 2008 to 2019 as it melts out throughout the spring and summer. The grey lines depict previous years for general comparison. The area is calculated by adding all pixels in the Arctic that are older than one year based on the NSIDC ice age data product, and multiplying by the area per pixel of each grid cell. Historical data through 2020 are provided by Tschudi et al., 2019a and quicklook data for 2021 by Tschudi et al., 2019b 

Credit: Robbie Mallett
High-resolution image

While the multiyear ice that advected into the Beaufort Sea has helped to stabilize ice loss in that region, multiyear ice for 2021 in the Arctic as a whole is at a record low. Based on ice age classification, the proportion of multiyear ice in the Arctic during the first week of August is at 1.6 million square kilometers (618,000 million square miles). The loss of the multiyear ice since the early 1980s started in earnest after the 2007 record low minimum sea ice cover that summer, and while there have been slight recoveries since then, it has not recovered to values seen in the 1980s, 1990s, or early 2000s. This loss of the oldest and thickest ice in the Arctic Ocean is one of the reasons why the summer sea ice extent has not recovered, even when weather conditions are favorable for ice retention.

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22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Good evening Tip. The only optimistic line in the entire article was the last one, stated by Ms Mercer. Sundays rainfall event “will be visible in ice core records in the future”. As always ……

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The Summer AMO / Atlantic warmth is pretty well correlated with sea ice extent this time of year. It's been running colder than it has in quite a while.

The raw "untrended" AMO figure was 22.869C for the Atlantic in July. That's the coldest since 2018 in July, and it is relatively comparable to the warmest years in prior warm AMO cycles like 1960 (22.738C), especially if you assume there has been more than 0.15C warming since 1960 in SSTs. The 'recovery' year of 2013 was partly driven by a large drop in AMO/Atlantic warmth too. July 2012 was 22.986C, and then July 2013 was only 22.804C.

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Jaxa extent has slowed down quite a bit recently, and with yesterday 13,000km2 loss, extent now stands at 5.234M km2.  My guess is that we end near 4.9M km2 as we only have about two weeks more of the potential for significant ice loss melting days before the melt season ends.  

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Just imagine before the end of this century .... winters will mirror this discussion, in the sense that as the winter's age onward the discussion will be - proportionally - how much ice formed before the perennial total ice out.

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Just imagine before the end of this century .... winters will mirror this discussion, in the sense that as the winter's age onward the discussion will be - proportionally - how much ice formed before the perennial total ice out.

Last time there was over 400ppm CO2 there was no summer ice and no Greenland ice sheet.
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4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Just imagine before the end of this century .... winters will mirror this discussion, in the sense that as the winter's age onward the discussion will be - proportionally - how much ice formed before the perennial total ice out.

If things are that bad, don't you think a implementation of co2 capture and sequestration would be almost unavoidable? And if we could reduce co2 levels to 280 ppm, how soon would global temperatures start decreasing?

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On 8/19/2021 at 4:31 PM, bluewave said:

While the multiyear ice that advected into the Beaufort Sea has helped to stabilize ice loss in that region, multiyear ice for 2021 in the Arctic as a whole is at a record low. Based on ice age classification, the proportion of multiyear ice in the Arctic during the first week of August is at 1.6 million square kilometers (618,000 million square miles). The loss of the multiyear ice since the early 1980s started in earnest after the 2007 record low minimum sea ice cover that summer, and while there have been slight recoveries since then, it has not recovered to values seen in the 1980s, 1990s, or early 2000s. This loss of the oldest and thickest ice in the Arctic Ocean is one of the reasons why the summer sea ice extent has not recovered, even when weather conditions are favorable for ice retention.

Really large divergence between the area and extent in the Beaufort and Chuckchi.

 

 

 

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16 hours ago, Bhs1975 said:


Last time there was over 400ppm CO2 there was no summer ice and no Greenland ice sheet.

Yeah and it has to do with 'systemic momentum' too.

For example, orbital eccentricities ... volcanism,  even position moving through the galactic plain, even bio feed-backs and ocean aridity factor, all of these may have inherited the past era its momentum from a previous state of the climate.  - I am not personally up to speed on those idiosyncrasies. 

Ppm in the discussion/green-house gasses are certainly huge, but these other factors could have made the D(ppm) on the way up or down, and/or become overwhelming, subsuming or enhancing the 400.  Simply put, green-house gas is not the only factor.

It's not so much 'the last time there was - '  that should be of import in the discussion; it's really about what was happening in the delta(geo) preceding and during 800,000 years ago.

Having said all that... it's proooobably not a good thing that we have comparable CO2 levels, while our current delta(geo) is losing ice inside of Human life span observation periods.   That's not a good portend.  These kind of broadly canvased observable environmental changes means the planetary systems are being sent into a modality - whole planet!   In fact personally?  I suspect/hypothesize that anthropogenic environmental alteration have and continue to infused changes that have actually outpaced the rate in which these planetary system's of physics can respond. 

In other words, we may have to wait some untold number years to decades for the present atmospheric human-forced chemistry to realize it's greatest impact.

 

 

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NSIDC daily area minimum will most likely be 8.23.2021, with a value of 3.389173 million square kilometers.
 
The 8.25 value is 3.501343 millions of square kilometers. We are now 112,170 square kilometers above the minimum value.
 
This would be the earliest daily area minimum in the satellite record.
 
Bear witness to history.

Arctic-Graph.png


Meanwhile, Antarctic sea ice area is approaching the all time record high.

Antarctic-Graph-2.png
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I don't think we've reached the NSIDC area min....that would be like a week earlier than the previous earliest min.

There is still plenty of low concentration ice in the Beaufort/Chukchi that should bring us down a bit further. That said, I don't expect a very big drop like 2010 had....the weather looks really cold up there on the models over the next week.

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15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don't think we've reached the NSIDC area min....that would be like a week earlier than the previous earliest min.

There is still plenty of low concentration ice in the Beaufort/Chukchi that should bring us down a bit further. That said, I don't expect a very big drop like 2010 had....the weather looks really cold up there on the models over the next week.


Several years see 100k or less of sea ice area melt from now until minimum. We are 112k above the minimum. We are within the realm of possibilities. We just need the below average losses to continue.

Arctic-yesterday.png

It is cold and snowy in the Western Arctic. Some of the concentration may flash back in the Western Arctic over the next several days.

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5 hours ago, Weatherdude88 said:
NSIDC daily area minimum will most likely be 8.23.2021, with a value of 3.389173 million square kilometers.
 
The 8.25 value is 3.501343 millions of square kilometers. We are now 112,170 square kilometers above the minimum value.
 
This would be the earliest daily area minimum in the satellite record.
 
Bear witness to history.

Arctic-Graph.png


Meanwhile, Antarctic sea ice area is approaching the all time record high.

Antarctic-Graph-2.png

So the ice is barely over the 2010s average and that's a win? 

We had one of the best ice retention patterns of the summer and are still near the bottom. 

Also we are continuing to lose older ice, in fact a record loss of older ice this year.

But sure things are going swell. A brief pause before the next cliff dive.

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There’s no reason to think this is the start of any kind of long term recovery but if somehow we ever did get into a long term recovery, a gradual increase is how it would begin. You aren’t going to get back to the 1980s or even 1990s average minimum anytime soon with the loss of so much MYI. It would probably take a decade or more of consistent ice increases to build up enough MYI to get us back to those kind of minimums. I think it’s kind of interesting though if we end up higher than the 2010s average. 

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2 hours ago, iluvsnow said:

Where are we in total global sea ice? How is this in relationship to the past?

We are above the 2000 - 2019 year average in global sea ice extent and area.

Looking at 1978 - 2021 (43 year satellite data record), we are slightly below the 43 year average. Remember, the 70's, 80's, and 90's had less sea ice area and extent in the southern hemisphere than most years in the 21st century.

Global sea ice extent has close to 1.75 million more square kilometers than the lowest years for the date.

Here is global sea ice extent with the 1981 - 2010 mean. Keep in mind if the median included 2011 - 2020, the mean line would be significantly lower. 2011 - 2020 contains most of the lowest northern hemisphere sea ice extent minimum years.

global-sea-ice-extent-2021-day-237-1981-

 

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6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

We had one of the best ice retention patterns of the summer and are still near the bottom. 

 

Just looking at the last several years, 2018 will average a higher positive AO for the months of June, July, and August. 2021 will end with significantly more sea ice extent and area at minimum. The 2020 sea ice minimum was the second lowest in the satellite record. If we finish in 15th place, this would be the biggest year to year place change of any season on record. For 2021, we started much lower than 2018. 

There is also more than one pole on planet earth.

Going to be very interesting in here, over the next 2 weeks.

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On 8/19/2021 at 6:39 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

You will agree of course that climate goes through cycles, with some on the order of multidecadal up through millennial timescales.  So with that said, is it any wonder that during one of these 60-70 year or greater cycles we come across an "unprecedented" situation after only 32 years of recordkeeping.  Fact is, every single record for the first couple years at that station was unprecedented.    Now if the Arctic keeps this up for another 20 years, I could become more alarmed, but until we go through a full climate cycle, color me not impressed with a 32 year snapshot of a multi-million year record.  

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18 hours ago, roardog said:

There’s no reason to think this is the start of any kind of long term recovery but if somehow we ever did get into a long term recovery, a gradual increase is how it would begin. You aren’t going to get back to the 1980s or even 1990s average minimum anytime soon with the loss of so much MYI. It would probably take a decade or more of consistent ice increases to build up enough MYI to get us back to those kind of minimums. I think it’s kind of interesting though if we end up higher than the 2010s average. 

I agree.  It would take 10-15 years for a full recovery if it occurs.  Even in the 70's, MYI never got much older than 7 years old anywhere except right along the Canadian coast.  Most of the remainder of MYI was 2-5 years old before being flushed out.  The real difference is that there was a lot more MYI over the entire basin rather than be limited to the Canadian side.  Of particular interest to me is what happens on the Siberian side of the ocean.  If sea ice can maintain itself over multi years near that coast, I think that tips us toward an ice recovery and colder weather overall for 2-3 decades afterwards.  I just don't see a mechanism for how that happens yet.  Cycles of sea ice reduction and recovery has happened in the past but we didn't have satellite data to observe it and understand it.  Not saying that you're doing this, but I don't get the hand waving on either side.  Ice has declined since my youth in the 70's but I feel it is too early to make judgements as to whether it is permanent or temporary.  Earth's counterbalance measures are extraordinary and she hasn't entered the fray yet.  It's too soon to tell either way.  Give it 20 years and we'll know by then.

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You can't get a meaningful ice recovery on the Siberian side without being able to hold the multi-year ice in the Beaufort first. The Beaufort Gyre circulates the ice up toward the Chukchi and East Siberian Sea, but if the MYI is melting out in the Beaufort during the summer, then it makes any type of longer term recovery impossible.

 

As for the ice retention patterns......2013 was probably the best ice retention pattern we've seen in the past decade. If you subtract 2013 pressure anomalies from 2021 for the crucial pre-conditioning months of May/June, you can see how 2021 had higher pressures over the CAB (esp the PAC/Beaufort side) while having lower pressures over the Kara....a worse pattern than 2013.

 

 

2021v2013SeaicePattern.png

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3 hours ago, Taylorsweather said:

You will agree of course that climate goes through cycles, with some on the order of multidecadal up through millennial timescales.  So with that said, is it any wonder that during one of these 60-70 year or greater cycles we come across an "unprecedented" situation after only 32 years of recordkeeping.  Fact is, every single record for the first couple years at that station was unprecedented.    Now if the Arctic keeps this up for another 20 years, I could become more alarmed, but until we go through a full climate cycle, color me not impressed with a 32 year snapshot of a multi-million year record.  

Yeah but this doesn't mean we shouldn't get off of fossil fuels.  There are MANY reasons to get off of them (especially for health and pollution reasons) and I would go further and hold the people in charge of these companies in a Nuremberg style International Court for crimes against humanity for what they've been doing for decades.  An example must be made out of them to make sure no one ever tries this ever again.  Make them suffer.

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3 hours ago, Taylorsweather said:

You will agree of course that climate goes through cycles, with some on the order of multidecadal up through millennial timescales.  So with that said, is it any wonder that during one of these 60-70 year or greater cycles we come across an "unprecedented" situation after only 32 years of recordkeeping.  Fact is, every single record for the first couple years at that station was unprecedented.    Now if the Arctic keeps this up for another 20 years, I could become more alarmed, but until we go through a full climate cycle, color me not impressed with a 32 year snapshot of a multi-million year record.  

No time for 20 years dude, we should've started back in the 80s when I and many others already knew what was going on but thanks to coverups by large corporations who deserve to lose ALL their money regular people had no clue.  But we need to deal with them with a vengeance and make the French Revolution look like a picnic.

 

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On 8/26/2021 at 9:59 AM, Weatherdude88 said:
NSIDC daily area minimum will most likely be 8.23.2021, with a value of 3.389173 million square kilometers.
 

Any update on this?   Would be curious to see what the daily area values have done the past couple days

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