Damage In Tolland Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 Models continue to grow more bullish on a high end potential severe wx event for especially SNE on Sat night as we warm sector and drive the warm front well into and thru the region. Some of the modeling is quite alarming, while others are sort of meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 Looks meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 It is difficult to time MCS activity, but Saturday aftn decaying MCS seems on the cards. Saturday night doesn't seem interesting at the moment to me anyways. I would be more impressed if the timing was delayed 12 hrs to time increased LLJ and instability burst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 Day 2 slight risk ain't bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 10, 2016 Author Share Posted June 10, 2016 It is difficult to time MCS activity, but Saturday aftn decaying MCS seems on the cards. Saturday night doesn't seem interesting at the moment to me anyways. I would be more impressed if the timing was delayed 12 hrs to time increased LLJ and instability burst. Euro keeps everything way south tomorrow with MCS..Hope it right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 Euro keeps everything way south tomorrow with MCS..Hope it right It still may screw us. After tomorrow aftn, I don't see a return to another push of warm humid air aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 10, 2016 Author Share Posted June 10, 2016 It still may screw us. After tomorrow aftn, I don't see a return to another push of warm humid air aloft. SPC does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 SPC does They do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 10, 2016 Author Share Posted June 10, 2016 They do? With a slight risk..that says yes..they think severe legit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 Well I know you don't want to hear it, but the good stuff may be SW...that's all. I could see the rain and embedded thunder. We'll see I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 Always take the under in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 10, 2016 Author Share Posted June 10, 2016 I think I mentioned it's only possible and some models are meh. By no means is anything a lock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 The one thing I think is a possibility is to see potential for a supercell work into western CT towards the evening. I don't think there is a great severe threat across southern New England as I think the warm front is going to have trouble pushing through the entire region. The reason for this being the front doesn't approach western sections until very late afternoon/early evening as as the sun begins its descend warm fronts typically struggle to make much movement in the evening/overnight periods. If we don't see a supercell we very well could see a decaying complex (if one develops across C NY or wherever) and ride south along the front. This could pose a risk for damaging winds and large hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 Congrats LL Joe if anyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 Nam is more aggressive with the warm front tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 4km product rips a supercell through GC mid afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 i wondering if much EML gets NE of of Ohio really with that mid level flow structure... looks like shunt-south city. yeah - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 tomorrow definitely has that storms pealing off S of SNE in the old parabolic butt-bang out of a good time look. you grow to recognize when things are up to no good. signs look okay, ...sure, but its just a clever lubing of the cosmic dildo to get your hopes all up only to maximize the torment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 is there a legit tornado threat for the areas that DO experience severe tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 .LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO NORTHEAST...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS CONCERNING SEVERE WEATHERPOTENTIAL. THE MAIN UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPEARLIKELY TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGHMUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...A MORE SUBTLE IMPULSE MAY PROGRESSSOUTHEAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THROUGH NORTHERN MID ATLANTICAND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTAL AREAS...DURING THE DAY. THIS MAYBE ACCOMPANIED BY EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION THAT COULDLIMIT DESTABILIZATION.HOWEVER...IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENINGMAY MAKE STEADY PROGRESS EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...TOWARD NEWENGLAND. AND AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COULDSUPPORT RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRESENCE OF ADESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS SEEMS MOST PROBABLE EAST OF LAKEONTARIO INTO PARTS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY...BEFORE DEVELOPINGSOUTHEASTWARD LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN THE PRESENCEOF SHEARED 30-50 KT LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...ORGANIZEDCONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. THIS MAY INCLUDE BOTH SUPERCELLS AND ANEVOLVING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST THE RISK FORSEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 is there a legit tornado threat for the areas that DO experience severe tomorrow? I would not be shocked if one or two spin up...but I doubt New England sees one. Maybe New Jersey or PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 High end would be a Moderate in New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 Models seem to want to waken the MCS as it comes Southeast but I'm having a hard time buying that given the SBCAPE that some models have in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 Models continue to grow more bullish on a high end potential severe wx event for especially SNE on Sat night as we warm sector and drive the warm front well into and thru the region. Some of the modeling is quite alarming, while others are sort of meh looks meh on all now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 looks meh on all now IMO pinning hopes on the EML advection was always a long shot for the large majority of SNE in this setup, but I don't rule a picturesque event with even modest instability given the shear that will be in place. Not turning my nose up at a nice low topper, with small hail and swirly clouds. Mid 70s over mid 50s may well do the trick... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 i think the corridor between ALB and CT and points ESE needs to watch this. SRH could be epic tomorrow combined with insolation taking place under the nose/terminous of EML plume. i think concatenating SRH with warm frontal lift under EML is inherently dangerous. specials is warranted. SPC is right and despite the thread starter this one really needs to be pinned. watch for wee hours/dawn convection going to hazy sun and whatever forms some 20 to 40 mile NW of White Plains NY has great potential for helicoidal in that profile. jesus. fresh BL moisture under EML in SRH saturation? okay - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 Really not sure where to setup tomorrow...if the NAM 4km is right there will be some serious **** moving through PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 The 21z SPC SREF is pretty eye opening with several parameters...right now showing 30% chance of MLcape and SBcape >2000 J/KG across NY/PA in the warm sector...if we see those values with the given shear/helicity there will be a strong TOR somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 The 21z SPC SREF is pretty eye opening with several parameters...right now showing 30% chance of MLcape and SBcape >2000 J/KG across NY/PA in the warm sector...if we see those values with the given shear/helicity there will be a strong TOR somewhere Do you still feel that the warm sector will not progress very far into SNE ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Do you still feel that the warm sector will not progress very far into SNE ? I'm very skeptical of that happening. I think it could get into extreme western MA and extreme western CT but even with this those areas would have to be watched for isolated severe (including possibility of a supercell/tornado threat) given orientation of the warm front and storm motion along the front. If enough instability manages to push in, hodographs will be quite large given degree of shear (directional/speed). I'm not sure what the chances are but the chance is certainly enough to warrant a mention IMO. (I can't stand typing on an iPhone...hopefully I corrected all the stupid mistakes) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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