snowcaine Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 It's kind of crazy being on the 12" line when just a week ago we were on the rain snow line with the last storm. Much better line to be riding, emotionally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 It's kind of crazy being on the 12" line when just a week ago we were on the rain snow line with the last storm. Much better line to be riding, emotionally. I am noticing that the 18z GFS gives Toledo 8" in just 6 hours and similarly 6.2" at DET airport, and 7.5" in 6 hours in Toronto. This type of snow rate is not too normal without LES or orographic snow. So this could be overdone a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I'm thinking 9" sort of call so sounds like we have come to similar conclusions. you were 8-12" earlier, right? Just a little more hesitant to go towards that high end but there's at least a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Looks to be on a galena to Gary line based on temps/wind direction Went from 55 to 37 at Gary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Whoa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Going with 7-11" for the city of toronto. Feel pretty comfortable with that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Went from 51 to 43 in about ten minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 you were 8-12" earlier, right? Just a little more hesitant to go towards that high end but there's at least a chance.Yeah I'm thinking 12" is gonna be tough now that model solutions seem to be stabilizing. On another note, grass is covered up in North York. Been pinging for the past hour almost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Incoming airmass is dry...widespread single digit dewpoints in southern WI save for the extreme southern tier. Will take some time to moisten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Down to 31.1° now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Between about 32.5 degrees in Northbrook now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Despite front blasting south it's obvious that the fgen will be well north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Despite front blasting south it's obvious that the fgen will be well north Classic alek geos battle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 RAP has come back south. More in line in SD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 RAP has come back south. More in line in SD. Picking up the LE signal along the lake a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Despite front blasting south it's obvious that the fgen will be well north Checking out radar, it does look like it is developing in the north camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Updated TO Model Summary 12z Euro: 0.6" 18z GFS: 0.6-0.7" 18z GEFS Mean: 0.75" 12z GEM: 1.0" 18z RGEM: 0.8-0.9" 12z UKMET: 0.8" 18z NAM 0.8-0.9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 HRRR snowfall matches RAP QPF really nicely with the heavy band placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 HRRR snowfall matches RAP QPF really nicely with the heavy band placement. Wagons south. LES band right into Saukville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 RAP has come back south. More in line in SD. Why does the band get pushed south in MI compared to WI? It looks like the band may still be in the process of moving through farther north in later hours though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Why does the band get pushed south in MI compared to WI? It looks like the band may still be in the process of moving through farther north in later hours though? Convergence aloft is not in a straight line I guess. Maybe a Met can chime in on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Convergence aloft is not in a straight line I guess. Maybe a Met can chime in on that.That plus the warm front isn't lifting north in MI compared to IL at that point also the cold front will have pushed deeper here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 the moisture convergence has slipped further south than I expected to see.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Thanks for posting that RyanDe. 1/4 mile visibility and +SN at FSD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 the moisture convergence has slipped further south than I expected to see.... You want convergence...divergence isn't good unless you're talking about higher up in the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Just got home from work and have just skimmed through this thread. My call is for 8-10" for Toronto, 12-15" for Ottawa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Updated TO Model Summary 12z Euro: 0.6" 18z GFS: 0.6-0.7" 18z GEFS Mean: 0.75" 12z GEM: 1.0" 18z RGEM: 0.8-0.9" 12z UKMET: 0.8" 18z NAM 0.8-0.9" On the right side of the 0.75" isohyet with more members of the 18z GEFS suite compared to the 12z. Naked eye inspection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 You want convergence...divergence isn't good unless you're talking about higher up in the atmosphere. Right but I can't remember if it's better to be north or south of the divergence? Does the drop off between the two result in higher qpf amounts, whether it's summer or winter? I thought north was better but I could be way wrong. I expected this to be between Milwaukee and Chicago, given rain/ice/mix/snow showings on the HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 On the right side of the 0.75" isohyet with more members of the 18z GEFS suite compared to the 12z. Naked eye inspection. When is the storm forecast to be at its most intense? Overnight into Wednesday? I think many in Toronto might be surprised by just how much snow falls, if these model predictions pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 35 at O'hare, nearly 60 at Pontiac area.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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