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Spring severe weather chatter


Ian

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 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0454   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   1219 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN PA...NJ...NRN MD...NE WV...NRN DE   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY    VALID 261719Z - 261845Z   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS   AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN PA...NJ AND NRN MD. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND   HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED   ACROSS THE REGION.   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1003 MB LOW OVER SE PA WITH   A COLD FRONT EXTENDING WWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS CNTRL AND WRN PA. TO   THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...SFC TEMPS ARE APPROACHING 80 F AND THIS IS   CONTRIBUTING TO A NARROW BAND OF INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE   ESTIMATED TO BE IN THE 250 TO 500 J/KG RANGE. AS SFC HEATING   CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG   THE BOUNDARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP   ACROSS SCNTRL PA WITH CONVECTION GRADUALLY EXPANDING WWD ACROSS SW   PA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS SCNTRL PA AND NJ FOR 21Z SHOW 0-6 KM   SHEAR OF 50 KT WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH   UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD   BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. THE SEVERE THREAT IS   EXPECTED TO SHIFT SEWD INTO NRN MD AND DELAWARE LATER THIS   AFTERNOON.   ..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 04/26/2016   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...CTP...LWX...PBZ...
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I don't need the SPC to know what's up around here. I just need to know who is excited on game day to get a sense of where to set my minimum.

Yoda= drizzle to gusty boomers

Kmlwx/High Risk= mod to strong boomers, small hail, scattered severe

Ian/Ellinwood=widespread severe, isolated TORs, solid hail/wind

Eskimo Joe=wedges (and not those fake ones Ian talked about :P ), basketball hail, hurricane force winds

This is accurate.

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I don't need the SPC to know what's up around here. I just need to know who is excited on game day to get a sense of where to set my minimum. 

 

Yoda= drizzle to gusty boomers 

Kmlwx/High Risk= mod to strong boomers, small hail, scattered severe

Ian/Ellinwood=widespread severe, isolated TORs, solid hail/wind

Eskimo Joe=wedges (and not those fake ones Ian talked about :P ), basketball hail, hurricane force winds

This is marvelously accurate. Well done :lol:

A short few years ago I was up in the Yoda category in the nosebleed section ;)

I am getting more and more pessimistic on severe with age, though. Who knows...by the time I'm 30 I might be in the Eskimo Joe camp. 

Yodas powers recently haven't been dragging me into being interested in events. I'm getting better. 

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Severe is tricky. It's so localized in these parts. The derecho was very anomalous. I bought my house in 03 and have had only 1 true severe event (July 2010). 70mph+ burst and a tree through the roof. 2 miles away and nothing. That's pretty typical.

Widespread stuff is way less common than even a 4"+ snow event through the region. I don't fault the NWS or CPC at all for the unverified warnings. Safe than sorry is the way to go. You never know when a LaPlata or College Park event is going to happen again. And they happen quick when they do.

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Were there tornadoes yesterday? Seeing lots of disco on Social that this was a bust. Is that bc no one died?

 

overall the moderate was okay, for hail. But not tornadoes. the PDS watch issued was a major bust. Though there were a couple deaths... 

 

But yesterday's slight risk produced more... 

 

all relative I suppose. and if you are chaser who was looking forward to seeing some tornadoes. been a slow spring. 

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I don't need the SPC to know what's up around here. I just need to know who is excited on game day to get a sense of where to set my minimum. 

 

Yoda= drizzle to gusty boomers 

Kmlwx/High Risk= mod to strong boomers, small hail, scattered severe

Ian/Ellinwood=widespread severe, isolated TORs, solid hail/wind

Eskimo Joe=wedges (and not those fake ones Ian talked about :P ), basketball hail, hurricane force winds

Joplin or bust

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

554 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

TODAY...LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING WITH A

TRAILING COLD FRONT STALLING OVER THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL

DEVELOP ALONG THIS LINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH POPS INCREASING TO

LIKELY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS

WITH A WIND/HAIL THREAT IN 30 KT BULK SHEAR AND AROUND 1500 J/KG

CAPE. PRESENCE OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY OF RETREATING CAD

WEDGE CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL BAY BREEZE BRINGS A TORNADO THREAT TO THE

BALT-WASH METRO. MAX TEMPS AROUND 80F FROM SUPERBLEND...HIGH BUST

POTENTIAL AS CAD WEDGE WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE.

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