mappy Posted May 2, 2016 Share Posted May 2, 2016 Good, good. Let the Joe flow within you. i love severe like the next person, but i am also realistic to know that CAD never gets out of the area as forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 2, 2016 Share Posted May 2, 2016 Well one thing is for sure - HRRR does bring more activity than it brought for the marginal the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted May 2, 2016 Share Posted May 2, 2016 Well one thing is for sure - HRRR does bring more activity than it brought for the marginal the other day. May I ask when it brings in the storms? I'm laptop less for a few hours and can't burn through my data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 2, 2016 Share Posted May 2, 2016 If we can just get some dry air to punch over the Mtns. downsloping would take care of the rest.....ahh wishful thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 2, 2016 Share Posted May 2, 2016 May I ask when it brings in the storms? I'm laptop less for a few hours and can't burn through my data. Has scattered activity anytime after 22 or 23z and then a steadier slug of rain behind that activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 2, 2016 Share Posted May 2, 2016 FWIW - HRRR, RAP, 4kmNAM all erode the CAD pretty easily. But we'll see how easy it is in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 2, 2016 Share Posted May 2, 2016 Has scattered activity anytime after 22 or 23z and then a steadier slug of rain behind that activity. 12z 4km NAM is basically the same, looks like isolated discrete storms around 21/22z, then a line/complex comes through towards midnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 2, 2016 Share Posted May 2, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted May 2, 2016 Share Posted May 2, 2016 It's really not a great setup for keeping the wedge in place all day, so I'm fairly optimistic that we can heat this afternoon and then take advantage of the good forcing and instability that should be in place for the early evening, but I should really know better than to be optimistic in this scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 2, 2016 Share Posted May 2, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 2, 2016 Share Posted May 2, 2016 It's really not a great setup for keeping the wedge in place all day, so I'm fairly optimistic that we can heat this afternoon and then take advantage of the good forcing and instability that should be in place for the early evening, but I should really know better than to be optimistic in this scenario. As a side note - I think we should start a "WxWatcher007 Theory" test thread. So far I think all of us are fitting right into the scheme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted May 2, 2016 Share Posted May 2, 2016 Indeed. The predictability of our levels of enthusiasm today is FAR more predictable than the actual event. As a side note - I think we should start a "WxWatcher007 Theory" test thread. So far I think all of us are fitting right into the scheme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted May 2, 2016 Share Posted May 2, 2016 Sky is brightening. Come on sun. Temp seems to be finally on the rise as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 2, 2016 Share Posted May 2, 2016 DC is going to break out today. The last two frames of the visible satellite reveal breaks in the clouds as far northeast as southern York County, and surface observations show winds are shifting to the southwest from I-70 and points south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted May 2, 2016 Share Posted May 2, 2016 HRRR has some mid-upper 80s west of DC by late afternoon. Gonna be muggy out there this afternoon. Also has a deluge of over 2" for my house. Maybe we can get some good nighttime lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 2, 2016 Share Posted May 2, 2016 Yeah a lot of guidance really spikes temps today. Seeing mid 80s on some models. Maybe we luck out into an "okay" event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted May 2, 2016 Share Posted May 2, 2016 It's breaking down, the CAD. Sun breaking out here in PWC. Temps and humidity spiking the last 30 mins. Mid 70's about 10 miles to my SSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 2, 2016 Share Posted May 2, 2016 Sun trying to peek out here in Gaithersburg. Even places as far north as Taneytown are partly sunny so I-70 and points south should be good for a meh storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted May 2, 2016 Share Posted May 2, 2016 Sun is out its partly sunny here in Bethesda, already 65 and ultra muggy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 2, 2016 Share Posted May 2, 2016 Sun here as well in Silver Spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted May 2, 2016 Share Posted May 2, 2016 blue sky here. SPC moved the 2% TOR a little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 2, 2016 Share Posted May 2, 2016 Interesting SPC update removing DC from the slight. Still 2% tor tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted May 2, 2016 Share Posted May 2, 2016 I think Yoda is going to win out as the DMV just got pushed out of the Slight risk per SPC. Looks like most of VA west of 95 would be the ones that get anything fun. Bastards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 2, 2016 Share Posted May 2, 2016 Interesting SPC update removing DC from the slight. Still 2% tor tho I like the tiny 2% tor lol... matches up with the 12z 4km NAM sim composite radar early on around 21z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted May 2, 2016 Share Posted May 2, 2016 Interesting SPC update removing DC from the slight. Still 2% tor thoLooks like main threat is Heavy Rain, DC and North/East are taking a while to get sun. West/SW of DC has better chance of severe. HRRR has been aggressive with Rain for all. Initial Development is around 6:00pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted May 2, 2016 Share Posted May 2, 2016 Looks like main threat is Heavy Rain, DC and North/East are taking a while to get sun. West/SW of DC has better chance of severe. HRRR has been aggressive with Rain for all. Initial Development is around 6:00pm. Not a cloud in the sky few miles west of DC. Really nice out at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 2, 2016 Share Posted May 2, 2016 15z HRRR fires storms to our SW around 20z and moves them NE into the region 22z/23z... looks like some discrete cells and then a complex comes through around 02z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 2, 2016 Share Posted May 2, 2016 I'm feeling alright about today. Could squeak in a few severe reports around the greater D.C. region, with isolated stuff continuing along and a bit east of I-81. Shear's decent enough, and instability is looking good, even with the later push up through the previously-CAD-stricken areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 2, 2016 Share Posted May 2, 2016 Was overcast and 64 at noon, now nearly full sun and 68 just past 1:00 pm. If we can manage decent sun and these southwest winds, we might sneak out a pity watch or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted May 2, 2016 Share Posted May 2, 2016 I feel like any time we are near the northern edge of the slight area and cloud cover is a concern, the event always underperforms. I saw the slight risk area this morning and figured anyone north of Central Virginia was probably not going to see much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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