yoda Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0454 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1219 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN PA...NJ...NRN MD...NE WV...NRN DE CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 261719Z - 261845Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN PA...NJ AND NRN MD. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION. DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1003 MB LOW OVER SE PA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING WWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS CNTRL AND WRN PA. TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...SFC TEMPS ARE APPROACHING 80 F AND THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO A NARROW BAND OF INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE IN THE 250 TO 500 J/KG RANGE. AS SFC HEATING CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SCNTRL PA WITH CONVECTION GRADUALLY EXPANDING WWD ACROSS SW PA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS SCNTRL PA AND NJ FOR 21Z SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 50 KT WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SEWD INTO NRN MD AND DELAWARE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 04/26/2016 ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...CTP...LWX...PBZ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 Pity watch then I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 FWIW the 16z HRRR is like nothing for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 SPC issues SVR TSTORM WATCH issued until 01:00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 CAPE doesn't look all that impressive around here right now. This appears to be a perfect "meh" to start the "meh" season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 Meh lapse rates and tons of debris clouds out there, but it's windy so maybe a bendy tree snizzle warning later today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 HRRR and HRRRX just not very excited about widespread coverage of cells in our area this evening. The PoPs from LWX seem awfully high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 HRRR and HRRRX just not very excited about widespread coverage of cells in our area this evening. The PoPs from LWX seem awfully high. There's nothing even close to DC/Baltimore right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 There's nothing even close to DC/Baltimore right now. I was looking at the 7-9pm time period IMO for any storm threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 Looking good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 Excellent watch county continuation and continuity. Definitely doesn't cause confusion on the part of the public. Naw, totally great. /rant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 Looking good! Classic Mid-Atlantic storm event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 Not sure there should be any surprise. HRRR essentially shafted DC proper all afternoon. Yoda is probably sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 Not sure there should be any surprise. HRRR essentially shafted DC proper all afternoon. Yoda is probably sad. I am disappointed... I wanted some storms at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 North is South... South is North. This is Bizzaro World. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 I don't need the SPC to know what's up around here. I just need to know who is excited on game day to get a sense of where to set my minimum. Yoda= drizzle to gusty boomers Kmlwx/High Risk= mod to strong boomers, small hail, scattered severe Ian/Ellinwood=widespread severe, isolated TORs, solid hail/wind Eskimo Joe=wedges (and not those fake ones Ian talked about ), basketball hail, hurricane force winds This is accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 Put me in the Ian/Mark group. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 Were there tornadoes yesterday? Seeing lots of disco on Social that this was a bust. Is that bc no one died? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 Were there tornadoes yesterday? Seeing lots of disco on Social that this was a bust. Is that bc no one died? I believe there were three tornadoes confirmed yesterday all below EF-1. Honestly, today's severe has been more interesting to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 I don't need the SPC to know what's up around here. I just need to know who is excited on game day to get a sense of where to set my minimum. Yoda= drizzle to gusty boomers Kmlwx/High Risk= mod to strong boomers, small hail, scattered severe Ian/Ellinwood=widespread severe, isolated TORs, solid hail/wind Eskimo Joe=wedges (and not those fake ones Ian talked about ), basketball hail, hurricane force winds This is marvelously accurate. Well done A short few years ago I was up in the Yoda category in the nosebleed section I am getting more and more pessimistic on severe with age, though. Who knows...by the time I'm 30 I might be in the Eskimo Joe camp. Yodas powers recently haven't been dragging me into being interested in events. I'm getting better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 Severe is tricky. It's so localized in these parts. The derecho was very anomalous. I bought my house in 03 and have had only 1 true severe event (July 2010). 70mph+ burst and a tree through the roof. 2 miles away and nothing. That's pretty typical. Widespread stuff is way less common than even a 4"+ snow event through the region. I don't fault the NWS or CPC at all for the unverified warnings. Safe than sorry is the way to go. You never know when a LaPlata or College Park event is going to happen again. And they happen quick when they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 Were there tornadoes yesterday? Seeing lots of disco on Social that this was a bust. Is that bc no one died? overall the moderate was okay, for hail. But not tornadoes. the PDS watch issued was a major bust. Though there were a couple deaths... But yesterday's slight risk produced more... all relative I suppose. and if you are chaser who was looking forward to seeing some tornadoes. been a slow spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 29, 2016 Share Posted April 29, 2016 I don't need the SPC to know what's up around here. I just need to know who is excited on game day to get a sense of where to set my minimum. Yoda= drizzle to gusty boomers Kmlwx/High Risk= mod to strong boomers, small hail, scattered severe Ian/Ellinwood=widespread severe, isolated TORs, solid hail/wind Eskimo Joe=wedges (and not those fake ones Ian talked about ), basketball hail, hurricane force winds Joplin or bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted April 30, 2016 Share Posted April 30, 2016 Im in East Texas tonight dodging tornadoes but flying back to BWI Sunday night - last I looked wx looked very dicey Sunday evening with a decent shot at some severe cells. Any updates on potential? Need to think about cancelled flight potential since it's the last flight in ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 30, 2016 Share Posted April 30, 2016 HeheheheheheThe CFSv2 at 786 hours Finally some good CAPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 2, 2016 Share Posted May 2, 2016 Pretty hard to believe there's a SVR warned storm in the LWX CWA lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 2, 2016 Share Posted May 2, 2016 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 554 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 TODAY...LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT STALLING OVER THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS LINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A WIND/HAIL THREAT IN 30 KT BULK SHEAR AND AROUND 1500 J/KG CAPE. PRESENCE OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY OF RETREATING CAD WEDGE CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL BAY BREEZE BRINGS A TORNADO THREAT TO THE BALT-WASH METRO. MAX TEMPS AROUND 80F FROM SUPERBLEND...HIGH BUST POTENTIAL AS CAD WEDGE WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 2, 2016 Share Posted May 2, 2016 CAD is always slow to erode, don't expect much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 2, 2016 Share Posted May 2, 2016 CAD is always slow to erode, don't expect much Good, good. Let the Joe flow within you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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