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lilj4425

Feb 15-16 Possible Mixed Event.

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I'd think worse case scenario for GSP would be to have us under a WWA this afternoon, and could possibly be nothing? I guess you may need a wwa for freezing drizzle, but I'd say 10% chance we go under a warning

Tried to say this earlier in the week. West to East lows just don't perform well for the GSP area. It takes years of living here to know that.

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Most complicated DT call map ever. :lmao:

Not sure how accurate it is considering he's lumping in this area in the same range as southern Delaware and NYC... :whistle:

12711015_985987951448463_286003616484092

Well he is way off on his timimg. So I certainly think that may lead to some errors on his call map.

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1036 Mb high over Lake Ontario atm. How does that compare to what it was suppose to be?

 

Looking at the SPC mesoanalysis page, the strength is on target compared to the 18z NAM position at hr 3, though it looks like the NAM might be initializing it a little too far east (by 50ish miles).

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Mess, as in ice storm

I'm not sure how to take it? If he's just talking about Va. Piedmont or NC Piedmont also?  Here is what caught my attention the most.

 

The process that leads to heavy snow that far south and all the way to va is going to act as a barrier to the warmth surging so far inland,. So I don't think he thinks the low will plow into the wedge, and will slip underneath it and up I95 ????

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Most complicated DT call map ever. :lmao:

Not sure how accurate it is considering he's lumping in this area in the same range as southern Delaware and NYC... :whistle:

12711015_985987951448463_286003616484092

thought his first call map came out 2 days ago?

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Mess, as in ice storm

 

JB afternoon update….

 

 

 

Not gong to pick on the GFS It forfeited its right to be in a serious discussion ( though yes it could be right now) when a few runs ago, it had this well to the east and was making a huge deal over the second system, The euro has been most consistent, but I still want to draw attention to where I think its wrong, My model of choice right now is the NAM

 

This is key because it is very unusual for a storm to start as snow in the piedmont, but wind up in the true warm sector . So the idea from a few days ago, describing the thermally induced reverse circulation and a 2 low track , one up to PIT, the other right up I-95 still holds. This is crucial since while this will go over to rain in the big cities, the I81 corridor to the crest of the Appalachians may be in for a major ice storm after 3-6 inches of snow. The other problem is that as the Euro starts realizing that its not going to 50 degrees in Harrisburg but is going to 55 in ACY, it will adjust the second feature east. In short I am trying to describe what I posted on back on Wednesday or Thursday

The GFS ensemble has no heavy ( over 8 inch) are on it) till pa NY) out side of the major snow event we have been stressing between I-40 and Ohio river indicating there is still plenty of confusion,

 

The process that leads to heavy snow that far south and all the way to va is going to act as a barrier to the warmth surging so far inland, The result may be a monster mess in the piedmont .

I think you are on to something here...better that that wxr call map...not buying that one

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I'm not sure how to take it? If he's just talking about Va. Piedmont or NC Piedmont also?  Here is what caught my attention the most.

 

The process that leads to heavy snow that far south and all the way to va is going to act as a barrier to the warmth surging so far inland,. So I don't think he thinks the low will plow into the wedge, and will slip underneath it and up I95 ????

 

The Piedmont is a pretty expansive region that goes from AL/GA all the way up into NY, so it's hard to say what he's really saying, though if I had to guess he's talking about the VA Piedmont and northward, mostly.

 

thought his first call map came out 2 days ago?

 

I think that was his first guess map, haha.  He makes a million of them.

 

The 18z NAM is awful with the overrunning.  Ew.

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The Piedmont is a pretty expansive region that goes from AL/GA all the way up into NY, so it's hard to say what he's really saying, though if I had to guess he's talking about the VA Piedmont and northward, mostly.

I think that was his first guess map, haha. He makes a million of them.

The 18z NAM is awful with the overrunning. Ew.

we toss.

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Well he is way off on his timimg. So I certainly think that may lead to some errors on his call map.

AGREED! Alan (RaleighWx) just tweeted anything RDU gets prior to 3am will be light and then after 3am a little more until 7-9am when it changed to sleep and freezing rain. I tend to buy Allan's call way over WxRisk. His timing is off.

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The Piedmont is a pretty expansive region that goes from AL/GA all the way up into NY, so it's hard to say what he's really saying, though if I had to guess he's talking about the VA Piedmont and northward, mostly.

 

 

I think that was his first guess map, haha.  He makes a million of them.

 

The 18z NAM is awful with the overrunning.  Ew.

I sent him a tweet and ask him was he talking about NC Piedmont also. lol. I'm sure He probably talking about Va. north like u said!! And I'm sure he want respond to me either.............  :axe:

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I'm just not sure what anyone is seeing east of the foothills in terms of accumulation. We shall see but I would be shocked if the triad gets anything in terms of accumulating snow or sleet.

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Issued By: NWS Greenville-Spartanburg (Western North Carolina and Northwest South Carolina)

Sent: 14:52 EST on 02-14-2016

Effective: 14:52 EST on 02-14-2016

Expires: 19:00 EST on 02-15-2016

Severity: Minor

Urgency: Expected

County Boundary

Target Area:

Cabarrus

Catawba

Cleveland

Davie

Eastern Polk

Gaston

Greater Rutherford

Henderson

Iredell

Lincoln

Mecklenburg

Polk Mountains

Rowan

Rutherford Mountains

Southern Jackson

Transylvania

WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY,

.AN ARCTIC AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS

AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE

CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL MOVE EAST AND SPREAD MOISTURE

INTO THIS COLD AIR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WITH COLD AND DRY AIR

INITIALLY IN PLACE TONIGHT, THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS SNOW

THROUGHOUT. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO SLEET AND THEN FREEZING

RAIN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY ON MONDAY, BECOMING ALL RAIN

IN MOST AREAS BY MONDAY EVENING. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF

SNOW, SLEET, AND ICE MAY OCCUR, PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN

MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO

7 PM EST MONDAY,

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN, WHICH

IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY. THE WINTER

STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS, THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS, SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS, AND

THE PIEDMONT OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. ALSO, THE MOUNTAINS AND

FOOTHILLS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

* HAZARDS, A MIXTURE OF SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN.

* TIMING, PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT,

MIXING WITH AND CHANGING OVER TO SLEET EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A

PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE

TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO ALL

RAIN SOMETIME MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS, SNOW ACCUMULATION OF UP TO ONE HALF INCH, ALONG

WITH AROUND A TRACE OF ICE.

* WINDS, EAST 5 MPH OR LESS.

* IMPACTS, ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN

MAY RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

* TEMPERATURES, AROUND 30.

Instructions:

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW, SLEET, OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES, AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. PLEASE REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS BY CALLING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT, 1, 800, 2 6 7, 8 1 0 1. LEAVE A MESSAGE WITH YOUR OBSERVATION AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED. YOU CAN ALSO POST YOUR REPORT TO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG FACEBOOK OR TWEET YOUR REPORT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP.

Target Area:

Cabarrus

Catawba

Cleveland

Davie

Eastern Polk

Gaston

Greater Rutherford

Henderson

Iredell

Lincoln

Mecklenburg

Polk Mountains

Rowan

Rutherford Mountains

Southern Jackson

Transylvania

Forecast Office:

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg (Western North Carolina and Northwest South Carolina)

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Important reminder from Brad Panovich

Brad Panovich (@wxbrad)

2/14/16, 12:53

Remember research shows "minor" winter events are more deadly on roads than major. Due to more cars on roads & false sense of security.

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RAH is always the last to get out their AFD and info....

 

I will chalk it up to thoroughly examining every possibility..

 

We chalk it up to laziness.

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