40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Mundane is a subjective word. At any rate, lets stick to model analysis here and not start debating whether we think this event is "worth" following or whether it will satisfy our own definitions of a good event. We have like 2 or 3 other threads that can be debated in. Under warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 40/70: You're getting distracted by your disappointment and sense of failure. There is plenty of time for evolution within the models. Many storm tracks have not been resolving this winter until the 48 hr timeframe thanks to our lack of blocking up north. I find that many on this board are now assuming things will break ****ty, but the truth is that we've had some late breaks. I would just recommend that you remember that your snow forecast had many things right about it... had it not been for that ****-ass dome of high pressure for the MA blizzard, we would all be closer to verification. This isn't a dead ratter yet... I think we have another 3 weeks of snow events although without a doubt... we will taint on some of them and those with pack fetishes are going to have to call this season a loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Under warning criteria. Not true, because, we have had two high impact advisory events this season despite swimming in a sea of suck. The January sleet fest and Monday night's cutter both had high impact on day to day activities for a chunk of people. Looks like mid-week could be another incarnation of this season's futility while still being a bit more than mundane. Seems like a good thump to ice to wet for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Euro Para toaster baths by the hundreds. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Euro Para toaster baths by the hundreds. Wow If your gonna send the masses into their K holes, please let them know why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Euro Para toaster baths by the hundreds. WowAny more detail other than this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Euro Para toaster baths by the hundreds. WowHell of a cliff hanger...You really know how to put a weenie on edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Any more detail other than this?18Z GFS only with a front end burst into SNE of 3 to 4, major snow axis SW Illinois over CHICAGO to Michigan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 18Z GFS only with a front end burst into SNE of 3 to 4, major snow axis SW Illinois over CHICAGO to Michigan Does the para euro have ensambles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 40/70: You're getting distracted by your disappointment and sense of failure. There is plenty of time for evolution within the models. Many storm tracks have not been resolving this winter until the 48 hr timeframe thanks to our lack of blocking up north. I find that many on this board are now assuming things will break ****ty, but the truth is that we've had some late breaks. I would just recommend that you remember that your snow forecast had many things right about it... had it not been for that ****-ass dome of high pressure for the MA blizzard, we would all be closer to verification. This isn't a dead ratter yet... I think we have another 3 weeks of snow events although without a doubt... we will taint on some of them and those with pack fetishes are going to have to call this season a loss. Yea, I'm jaded and disappointed. No doubt.....gonna take a breather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 18Z GFS only with a front end burst into SNE of 3 to 4, major snow axis SW Illinois over CHICAGO to Michigan Sounds like some of the western members of euro ensembles. Totally within the realm of possibilities. We are actually hoping on bad phasing for this event. Bad phasing has hurt us in some other events (most notably feb 8th) so this time it would help us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Any more detail other than this?ORH with 3 inches then a 55/50 day total QPF 1.1, it's ugly for anyone who reads this subforum. Let's hope tomorrow we get some different solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 First wave OTS, second to Cleveland on the para. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 ORH with 3 inches then a 55/50 day total QPF 1.1, it's ugly for anyone who reads this subforum. Let's hope tomorrow we get some different solutions I hope its wrong, but the inertia of this season is just weighing so heavily at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 First wave OTS, second to Cleveland on the para.first wave drops 3-4 look at the Meteograms and Boston zoomed in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peteradiator Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Typhoon.. when you say west do think like real real west or just too west for the big cities to cash in on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 first wave drops 3-4 look at the Meteograms and Boston zoomed in I didn't care enough to examine that closely. I stand corrected, but this confirms what I had suspected about the EURO OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I didn't care enough to examine that closely. I stand corrected, but this confirms what I had suspected about the EURO OP. well it's another solution doesn't prove anything about the OP. Para focus is phasing, OP focus is 2 separate systems. Para is more of a front ender of a massive system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Remember how the "front runner wave" screwed up Feb 8th from being a huge event? Well this is what we are rooting for now. To prevent a huge event out in the lakes by having this front runner wave be a focus enough to shunt baroclinicty further east. Destructive wave interference which has been a common theme this year. So if people believe in themes for a season then this would be something to have optimism about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Remember how the "front runner wave" screwed up Feb 8th from being a huge event? Well this is what we are rooting for now. To prevent a huge event out in the lakes by having this front runner wave be a focus enough to shunt baroclinicty further east. Destructive wave interference which has been a common theme this year. So if people believe in themes for a season then this would be something to have optimism about. It's odd EPS mean is .5 snow for Chi but Para drops a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Remember how the "front runner wave" screwed up Feb 8th from being a huge event? Well this is what we are rooting for now. To prevent a huge event out in the lakes by having this front runner wave be a focus enough to shunt baroclinicty further east. Destructive wave interference which has been a common theme this year. So if people believe in themes for a season then this would be something to have optimism about. that's a JC-CT JMA solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I wonder if the paranoia op suffers from NAM like hi res syndrome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I wonder if the paranoia op suffers from NAM like hi res syndrome.could be paralyzed or in fact a paragoned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Remember how the "front runner wave" screwed up Feb 8th from being a huge event? Well this is what we are rooting for now. To prevent a huge event out in the lakes by having this front runner wave be a focus enough to shunt baroclinicty further east. Destructive wave interference which has been a common theme this year. So if people believe in themes for a season then this would be something to have optimism about. Great point. Touche. Wait and see...but we could still have a strung out meager solution, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 The volatility next week tells me to at least wait a day. This is ridiculous. The solutions are all Over the place. While I would keep expectations rather low...there is way too much spread to nail down an idea of a Cleveland Steamer or a Benchmark Brothel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Remember how the "front runner wave" screwed up Feb 8th from being a huge event? Well this is what we are rooting for now. To prevent a huge event out in the lakes by having this front runner wave be a focus enough to shunt baroclinicty further east. Destructive wave interference which has been a common theme this year. So if people believe in themes for a season then this would be something to have optimism about. The big Ottawa and Rochester event this week too screwed up that following clipper from being a monster redeveloper. That thing was on roids crossing KY and VA, would have had Manitoba mauler potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Maybe somebody can explain the GEFS to me with a 990 mean at the BM at hr 150, weird evolution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 boy the errors in the mid atlantic blizzard were nothing compared to all this drama...good grief..i am dizzy from the past four days moving from chicago to bermuda and everywhere in between lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Expirmental anyone? Dropped in to leave you with a shinning glimmer of hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnaude241 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Haven't heard from James in a while so this isn't coming east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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