JC-CT Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 If wave 1 can get through another model cycle or two, then we'll be inside of 100 hours for that part of the storm. That's a crucial part of the storm if we're looking for a snowier solution because 1. It gets precip into a much fresher airmass and 2. It keeps the baroclinic zone further east so that wave 2 doesn't go crazy phased cutter on us....even if it tries to track over SNE, it's a lot different than a phased cutter over BUF. The bridge jumpers from BTV would agree with you if they hadn't already jumped off a bridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Very complex. This is a fun roller coaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Probably plenty of snow and freezing rain with that setup.Ens mean snow is twice 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Every single snow-loving member of this subforum would take the JMA in a heartbeat no questions asked. Holy heck what a weenie run. Pretty much what the GGEM ensembles would look like in an OP run. yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Not saying it's right but it would be great if the 50/50 developed this way, both because of the space it would imply the first wave has and the implications for the second. let's hope your boy is right. When the Euro came out I thought for sure the Baroclinic/thermal Zone would be farther out and the second storm woukd evolve like the JMA ended up doing. This is the total run QPF and I would venture to say the majority is frozen. Let's hope your boy is on to something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 GFS says congrats Chicago on the 2nd wave That is the main show per 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 GFS says congrats Chicago on the 2nd wave That is the main show per 18z Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 writing's on the wall - this should end up west. i discussed this at length all day about the wave lengths looking too suspiciously long for an ec event... ridging situated too far west in recent runs. that's kind of the rub-schit frosting on the dogcrap cake of winter this has been, to have a whopper ending +PNA idiosyncratically be west basing the +PNAP expression like that. ha - pretty strong argument for the cosmic dildo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Lol Nice squall line if the GFS is correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 in all seriousness, until the whole of the structure up and resituates some 10 degree longitude east, i think the probability should objectively be on the west side of the envelope. there's time - we'll see how things break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 writing's on the wall - this should end up west. i discussed this at length all day about the wave lengths looking too suspiciously long for an ec event... ridging situated too far west in recent runs. that's kind of the rub-schit frosting on the dogcrap cake of winter this has been, to have a whopper ending +PNA idiosyncratically be west basing the +PNAP expression like that. ha - pretty strong argument for the cosmic dildo The roller coaster is illusory in nature imo. Pretty obvious where this will end up. Hopefully March produces something of note, otherwise it will be a miserable couple of months, as I'm sure the NAO will arrive in sync with the delivery of the first pitch. "Now to deliver the ceremonial first pitch, Greenland Block"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 it even, in a way, butt sore's chicago...cuz it's humming alone so fast through a rotted air mass that lacking good enough gradients ... they'd end up with 4-8" of wet nuisance that turns into cement ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 GFS says congrats Chicago on the 2nd wave That is the main show per 18z HA, it literally is a Chicago snowstorm. Wow talk about jumping around. Gets 850mb to +10C up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 HA, it literally is a Chicago snowstorm. Wow talk about jumping around. Gets 850mb to +10C up here. it may be more than merely jumping around ...in terms of total wave length arguments, the ec idea was never very good. anomalies happen though - we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 IDK I kind of think the Euro and it's Ens are pretty good models at this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 The roller coaster is illusory in nature imo. Pretty obvious where this will end up. Hopefully March produces something of note, otherwise it will be a miserable couple of months, as I'm sure the NAO will arrive in sync with the delivery of the first pitch. "Now to deliver the ceremonial first pitch, Greenland Block"... Don't forget a few snow outs in Denver and Cleveland to start the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 IDK I kind of think the Euro and it's Ens are pretty good models at this time frame. Nothing exceptional outside of 96 hours....good, but beatable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Don't forget a few snow outs in Denver and Cleveland to start the season lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Nothing exceptional outside of 96 hours....good, but beatable.GFS went west 1750 miles in 24 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 GFS went west 1750 miles in 24 hrs I didn't say the GFS was better. It doesn't need to that far west to be mundane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 The roller coaster is illusory in nature imo. Pretty obvious where this will end up. Hopefully March produces something of note, otherwise it will be a miserable couple of months, as I'm sure the NAO will arrive in sync with the delivery of the first pitch. "Now to deliver the ceremonial first pitch, Greenland Block"... Is it that obvious where this will end up? Will and Scott must not see the future as easily as you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I didn't say the GFS was better. It doesn't need to that far west to be mundane. you said it was obvious where this would end up . Where would that be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Is it that obvious where this will end up? Will and Scott must not see the future as easily as you. Fair enough. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Continuous flow of melting in NE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 you said it was obvious where this would end up . Where would that be? The KU book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Fair enough. Good luck. Dood, can't have knee jerk reactions based off this pos model. The writing is not on the wall with this one yet, is all I'm saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Dood, can't have knee jerk reactions based off this pos model. The writing is not on the wall with this one yet, is all I'm saying. I wasn't being sarcastic, you're right. But I feel this is going to end up a mundane event in all seriousness. Anyway, looking throughout the seasonal tallies, I think the best case scenario for March is about 25" more, barring a freak bowling ball, which is always possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I wasn't being sarcastic, you're right. But I feel this is going to end up a mundane event in all seriousness. Anyway, looking throughout the seasonal tallies, I think the best case scenario for March is about 25" more, barring a freak bowling ball, which is always possible. This could certainly end up a waste, I agree. Not denying that with my snow goggles on. But I think the swings and uncertainty of better guidance like ec and eps leads me to think this is far from narrowing the goal posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 This could certainly end up a waste, I agree. Not denying that with my snow goggles on. But I think the swings and uncertainty of better guidance like ec and eps leads me to think this is far from narrowing the goal posts. EURO is the best model, but you need that inside day 4 to feel great. Say what you want about the UK, as it is wild, but it seems to have been pretty consistent of late. Maybe I'm wrong....haven't paid much ATTN this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Mundane is a subjective word. At any rate, lets stick to model analysis here and not start debating whether we think this event is "worth" following or whether it will satisfy our own definitions of a good event. We have like 2 or 3 other threads that can be debated in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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