BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 It might some, and there is some dry air to overcome, but it doesn't sound like virga is a huge problem to the west, so we'll see. I would think a few inches at least. Let's see if we can have our greatest snowfall of the season... kind of a low bar. But yes, this is just the clipper. The rain event is with the bigger storm tomorrow-tomorrow night. how many times have we seen those nice green 30dbz returns dry up as they enter Franklin County? Things juicing up nicely across central IN....so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 It is so painful how perfect that track is for the 71 corridor... and rain 24 hours after the coldest temps of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Nothing but virga for radar returns last half hour. Dew point is 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 14, 2016 Author Share Posted February 14, 2016 Really tough one for parts of central and eastern OH. Temps will rise a few degrees above freezing at least tomorrow afternoon...and the storm starts wrapping up as it pulls away. You'll need dynamic cooling and/or the low wrapping up and pulling in colder air for a flip to accumulating snow tomorrow night. I'm thinking this occurs in a narrow zone somewhere in mainly eastern OH for a few or several hours and produces up to a few inches of snow. This zone looks to setup SE of CLE but it could be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 how many times have we seen those nice green 30dbz returns dry up as they enter Franklin County? Things juicing up nicely across central IN....so we'll see. If it helps, we moistened up fast here But I think our dew's were a few degrees higher to begin with. Either way, seems like dry air is not having a seriously damaging effect so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Really tough one for parts of central and eastern OH. Temps will rise a few degrees above freezing at least tomorrow afternoon...and the storm starts wrapping up as it pulls away. You'll need dynamic cooling and/or the low wrapping up and pulling in colder air for a flip to accumulating snow tomorrow night. I'm thinking this occurs in a narrow zone somewhere in mainly eastern OH for a few or several hours and produces up to a few inches of snow. This zone looks to setup SE of CLE but it could be close. Definitely agree. I think it will have to be some dynamic cooling unless the low ends up much stronger. With the next system coming in so fast there will be little CAA. There should end up being a strip of a few inches east of Cincinnati (like 3 counties east) but the signal is better for the Cbus east siders. Could be several inches up that way if it can time out just right!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 DT's first call map....https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/photos/pcb.985990138114911/985987951448463/?type=3&theater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Well finally +SN.. Even though it's pixy dust lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Another nudge from the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 WSW issued. Mentions possibility of sleet. ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGHTUESDAY EVENING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAYEVENING.* LOCATIONS...NIAGARA...ORLEANS...ERIE...GENESEE...WYOMING... CHAUTAUQUA...AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES.* TIMING...FROM EARLY MONDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET.* ACCUMULATIONS...7 TO 13 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH.* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW MAY RESULT IN VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. THE WORST TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AROUND THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE EXACT STORM TRACK WHICH WILL INFLUENCE THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 And of course the heavier returns are setting up 1 county south of 70 for tonight's clipper. I can't even... Unless DT scores a coup, this will just be a crapfest beginning to end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Living on the razor's edge... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Roads are pretty bad in Cincinnati. Only an inch but cold temps!! Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 18z CMC-REG coming in very warm, it shows heavy rain for all of WNY.. Congrats Toronto! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 So there's the the 18Z 4K NAM giving CMH 7.6" of snow. And the regular NAM gives 4.8".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Rough guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Hard to believe it's 20 degrees with heavy snow right now but tomorrow we have a perfect track for snow and it looks we're going to warm up and get rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Snow has begun here and is falling light to moderate right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Living on the razor's edge... About as close as it gets. Still time for one or two more (slight) shifts as the clipper energy won't be full on shore until about 6Z tomorrow morning. That could actually make a difference for YYZ considering that cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 So there's the the 18Z 4K NAM giving CMH 7.6" of snow. And the regular NAM gives 4.8".... And if you believe the Pivotalweather 10-1 snow ratio maps, the 18z 4-km NAM predicts 0.5 at Cincinnati-Covington, 8.9 at Columbus, 8.0 Akron Airport, 6.6 Ashtabula OH, 11 Buffalo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I guess ILN is very being conservative with tomorrow night's storm."Little or no snow accumulation expected." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Looks like goods storm for this area, first one in awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 NAM now sliding SE lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 NAM saying "what storm?" Literally whiffs OH. No wonder forecasters get a bad rap with model fluctuations such as this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Toss until other models say otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 DT's 4-8 call looks to be in a tad bit of trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 DT's 4-8 call looks to be in a tad bit of troubleSo does mine. Hoping the NAM isn't the final solution lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 DT's 4-8 call looks to be in a tad bit of troubleHow dare you! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 The models shifting east has me concerned. I went all rain and mentioned flooding here given 1-2" of QPF and snow melting and running off on frozen ground, but the 4km drills us and is usually one of the farther NW models. I'd look like a complete a** if we get anything more than 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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