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February 15-17th Storm Threat


OHweather

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18z RGEM beyond 48 hours would be more amped than the NAM/GFS/GGEM camp.

The RGEM has quietly been a pretty good short range model the last two winters. If it supports the Euro/UK it's interesting. I'll finally have time to really look at things this evening, so at this time I'm still not sure how I feel. Kicker trying to keep the storm from really amping up and lack of cold high to the north are both concerns for me though.
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The RGEM has quietly been a pretty good short range model the last two winters. If it supports the Euro/UK it's interesting. I'll finally have time to really look at things this evening, so at this time I'm still not sure how I feel. Kicker trying to keep the storm from really amping up and lack of cold high to the north are both concerns for me though.

 

I love the 18z NAM. Kicker is kept in check but still no dice with the main storm. :lol:

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gfs took a step in the right direction, but you can really see how that kicker screws things up by keeping the trough from going negative..   We need it to slow down or weaken, but if it wasn't there at all the storm would probably cut too far west.  

 

top is 12z  bottom 18z.   Subtle difference but you can see the northern energy is weaker and the southern energy is stronger on the 18z.  

 

We are talking subtle, but CMH is close enough that these small trends can make a big difference if they continue, (or fall apart).

post-622-0-96094000-1455400947_thumb.jpg

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gfs took a step in the right direction, but you can really see how that kicker screws things up by keeping the trough from going negative..   We need it to slow down or weaken, but if it wasn't there at all the storm would probably cut too far west.  

 

Do you remember there used to be a site that housed an 18z UKIE run? Does that still exist?

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Do you remember there used to be a site that housed an 18z UKIE run? Does that still exist?

 

There was a site that had that.  It's no longer up.  Last time I heard reference to the 18z ukie, Hoosier pulled it out to support his hopeful storm track and it was determined that it was basically all the same parameters that are run at 12z,  just re-ran.  

That had to be 3 or more years ago.

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agree with this /\

I'm afraid this one is mostly over for us in Cincy. Even the northern Euro solution is a cold rain (surface and 925mb temps too warm) The only reason you might have some hope is if the Euro is 100% correct and the timing...You might be able to cool enough to eek out some snow I suppose.

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I'm afraid this one is mostly over for us in Cincy. Even the northern Euro solution is a cold rain (surface and 925mb temps too warm) The only reason you might have some hope is if the Euro is 100% correct and the timing...You might be able to cool enough to eek out some snow I suppose.

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ILN says no snow for anyone on Monday, all rain after less than an inch of snow Sunday-Sunday night.  They state pretty clearly that there is good agreement on this.  ? 

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ILN says no snow for anyone on Monday, all rain after less than an inch of snow Sunday-Sunday night. They state pretty clearly that there is good agreement on this. ?

There is good agreement for the most part on lack of snow. Euro is too warm as I mentioned, UKMET is too warm, and the NAM/GFS/CMC all wiff.

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There is good agreement for the most part on lack of snow. Euro is too warm as I mentioned, UKMET is too warm, and the NAM/GFS/CMC all wiff.

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it's a bad set up in a what's been a terrible winter.   But bad is better than terrible, so I'm in until all the models either show a whiff, and if they don't, then I'm in until the radar turns green.   I mean c'mon, it's not like it's been a banner winter and we've earned the right to snub our noses at this.  :drunk:

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