buckeye Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The forecast isn't *quite* as bad as yesterday. Perhaps 2-4" by Monday morning before the changeover, and then back to snow Monday night through Tuesday. That is a change from little to no accumulation today and tonight and then rain through Tuesday like it was yesterday. It sucks that the main part is going to be rain, but you have to take what you can get this winter. We'll at least *potentially* surpass the seasonal total of 2011-2012 and 2005-2006 and 2001-2002. That's something, right? Right??? I wasn't able to check any models until this morning....so yea, I was a bit surprised that the clipper looks to do a little better than thought. I guess if you want to find some additional good, if these waa scenarios are going to surprise, they usually do it by over-performing rather than under performing. As far as the monday night storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Model Summary for TO(QPF) 12z NAM: 0.1" 12z GFS: 0.3" 0z ECM: 0.3" 0z Para: 0.35" 0z EPS: 0.4-0.45" 0z UKM: 0.1-0.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Model Summary for TO(QPF) 12z NAM: 0.1" 12z GFS: 0.3" 0z ECM: 0.3" 0z Para: 0.35" 0z EPS: 0.4-0.45" 0z UKM: 0.1-0.3" GFS nudged east a touch but it's basically a noise level shift. EPS got wetter I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Feels like a late March storm instead of mid February. Coldest temps of the season and 30 hours later it'll be raining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 gotta laugh at JB's insistance that the best analog for this storm was going to be Dec.26,27, 2012. Wtf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 GEFS still amped, Wagons west. I actually called this a week ago on the upstate forum. That blocking high was very strong. This was definitely going to be a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 GEM hops on board. Think Toronto does well in this. Don't forget the 50-75 mile NW "nowcast" shift that always happens with Apps runners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 GEM hops on board. Think Toronto does well in this. Don't forget the 50-75 mile NW "nowcast" shift that always happens with Apps runners. UKMET still intransigent though. Well east. Wouldn't that be something if the wagons west solution ended up being correct and one of the models that caught onto it first from like 5 days out abandoned it right before the event began. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Interesting outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 DT still calling for 4-8. Hopn he knows something we don't! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Sooooooo shocking!!!! LOL Looks like rain! Just what I figured would happen. Gotta give you credit, you nailed it. Amazing, we get a near perfect track and get rain. Can we get an early Spring, please?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Not really feeling this nuisance system. Give me a big dog or give me spring. Have zero interest for a 4-6" system this late in the game, even if we have had basically no snow this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Interesting outlook. That shows 4-6" in Columbus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 12z Euro has 0.4" for YYZ-YHM. 0.8" for Niagara an 1.1" at KBUF. By comparison, the 0z run had 0.2"(YYZ-YHM), 0.4" for Niagara and 0.5" at KBUF. Gradient is building up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 12z Euro has 0.4" for YYZ-YHM. 0.8" for Niagara an 1.1" at KBUF. Not bad, I still think this travels a bit further NW than forecasted and think Toronto at least gets 6" or so from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The radar does not look terrible..as long as it doesn't fall apart!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Not bad, I still think this travels a bit further NW than forecasted and think Toronto at least gets 6" or so from this. I hope so. Very tough forecast with the low straddling the spine of the apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Not really feeling this nuisance system. Give me a big dog or give me spring. Have zero interest for a 4-6" system this late in the game, even if we have had basically no snow this winter. lol, wow. This winter. 4-6" would be orgasmic. Besides, we live in Toronto. 4-6" is our big dog. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The radar does not look terrible..as long as it doesn't fall apart!! That's the clipper. Big storm tomorrow night I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 On the 12z euro, the H7 convergence zone is displaced north of the main precip shield. This is where a deformation band may set up. It extends from N Erie shore--GTA--Kawarthas before drifting SE. It sets up from Niagara-E GTA-Cobourg by 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 12z Euro has 0.4" for YYZ-YHM. 0.8" for Niagara an 1.1" at KBUF. By comparison, the 0z run had 0.2"(YYZ-YHM), 0.4" for Niagara and 0.5" at KBUF. Gradient is building up. How's the QPF for CLE? I had all but written this storm off yesterday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The radar does not look terrible..as long as it doesn't fall apart!! It might some, and there is some dry air to overcome, but it doesn't sound like virga is a huge problem to the west, so we'll see. I would think a few inches at least. Let's see if we can have our greatest snowfall of the season... kind of a low bar. But yes, this is just the clipper. The rain event is with the bigger storm tomorrow-tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 12z Euro has 0.4" for YYZ-YHM. 0.8" for Niagara an 1.1" at KBUF. By comparison, the 0z run had 0.2"(YYZ-YHM), 0.4" for Niagara and 0.5" at KBUF. Gradient is building up. That's a pretty serious cutoff. I'd probably end up with an inch in that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 How's the QPF for CLE? I had all but written this storm off yesterday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 It might some, and there is some dry air to overcome, but it doesn't sound like virga is a huge problem to the west, so we'll see. I would think a few inches at least. Let's see if we can have our greatest snowfall of the season... kind of a low bar. But yes, this is just the clipper. The rain event is with the bigger storm tomorrow-tomorrow night. I'm not 100% sold on rain yet, but we'll see.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I'm not 100% sold on rain yet, but we'll see.. Well, anything is possible, I guess, but this is not the winter to be hedging bets on something positive. It seems likely that there will be at least some rain at some point tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 That's the clipper. Big storm tomorrow night I believe But the clipper is suppose to bring us 2-4..That's a big deal around here..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Well, anything is possible, I guess, but this is not the winter to be hedging bets on something positive. It seems likely that there will be at least some rain at some point tomorrow. The bright side is the temperatures are very marginal. The difference between rain and snow is very close, but you're right, we haven't had much luck. I'm still not convinced 100% it'll be rain. Now cast most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Pretty good agreement on the GEFS and event is only 36 hours away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 ecmwf_tprecip_toronto_12.png Thanks. Just a slight NW trend for Cleveland and Toronto and this could be a pretty good hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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