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February 15-17th Storm Threat


OHweather

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The forecast isn't *quite* as bad as yesterday.  Perhaps 2-4" by Monday morning before the changeover, and then back to snow Monday night through Tuesday.  That is a change from little to no accumulation today and tonight and then rain through Tuesday like it was yesterday.  It sucks that the main part is going to be rain, but you have to take what you can get this winter.  We'll at least *potentially* surpass the seasonal total of 2011-2012 and 2005-2006 and 2001-2002.  That's something, right?  Right??? :cry:

 

I wasn't able to check any models until this morning....so yea, I was a bit surprised that the clipper looks to do a little better than thought.   I guess if you want to find some additional good, if these waa scenarios are going to surprise, they usually do it by over-performing rather than under performing.

As far as the monday night storm...  :axe:

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GEM hops on board. Think Toronto does well in this. Don't forget the 50-75 mile NW "nowcast" shift that always happens with Apps runners.

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_9.png

 

UKMET still intransigent though. Well east. Wouldn't that be something if the wagons west solution ended up being correct and one of the models that caught onto it first from like 5 days out abandoned it right before the event began.

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12z Euro has 0.4" for YYZ-YHM. 0.8" for Niagara an 1.1" at KBUF.

By comparison, the 0z run had 0.2"(YYZ-YHM), 0.4" for Niagara and 0.5" at KBUF.

Gradient is building up.

How's the QPF for CLE? I had all but written this storm off yesterday morning.
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The radar does not look terrible..as long as it doesn't fall apart!!

 

It might some, and there is some dry air to overcome, but it doesn't sound like virga is a huge problem to the west, so we'll see.  I would think a few inches at least.  Let's see if we can have our greatest snowfall of the season... kind of a low bar.

 

But yes, this is just the clipper.  The rain event is with the bigger storm tomorrow-tomorrow night.

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It might some, and there is some dry air to overcome, but it doesn't sound like virga is a huge problem to the west, so we'll see. I would think a few inches at least. Let's see if we can have our greatest snowfall of the season... kind of a low bar.

But yes, this is just the clipper. The rain event is with the bigger storm tomorrow-tomorrow night.

I'm not 100% sold on rain yet, but we'll see..
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Well, anything is possible, I guess, but this is not the winter to be hedging bets on something positive. It seems likely that there will be at least some rain at some point tomorrow.

The bright side is the temperatures are very marginal. The difference between rain and snow is very close, but you're right, we haven't had much luck. I'm still not convinced 100% it'll be rain. Now cast most likely.

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