snowstormcanuck Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 0z GFS will come back in line vs. the off 18z run but it ain't going to be anything huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioChaser Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Baby steps on the GFS...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioChaser Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Ukie keeping the dream alive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The ukie is bringing the low out of south Texas and is more amped, taking on a more south to north track. Now to see the euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 0z Euro is faster and slightly weaker with the surface low. Essentially amounts to a small bump southeast for us Ohio folks. I-71 is the division between snow and no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 00z Euro 78 hour forecast. If the 00z Euro is to be taken seriously, then the areas that I have highlighted in white should be snow. The sleet/freezing rain (if any) would be near that 5400m line. The threat of an ice storm is still out there for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Now, of course, the GFS and other models need to be taken into account also. This is a forecast predicts some snow in Columbus to Youngstown, at temperatures close to freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 6z GFS now back to a weaker southern stream system, instead emphasizing the kicker clipper around 102. I'm wondering if the EURO might end up getting embarrassed on this one. Its track has been pretty consistent but it's been trending weaker with its storm. Plus, I've noticed the GEFs gradually trending away from the deeper Apps runners a lot of the members had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I'm wondering if the EURO might end up getting embarrassed on this one. Yes, considering our luck with App runners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I'm wondering if the EURO might end up getting embarrassed on this one. It won't be the first time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 not even sure what to think about this one... The euro is actually not that far off from the nam, it's just stronger and brings the precip further nw. Now it boils down to which way the final trends set up. As of right now I'd rather be near the Ohio river for this one than columbus...yet again.... Last minute NW trends no longer seem to exist Looking at that euro map above. Considering how weak the nam is with it's depiction, if it had that same lp strength and placement, it would probably be driving the precip to detroit and we'd have rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Anybody dare extrapolate the 48hr 12z RGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 not even sure what to think about this one... The euro is actually not that far off from the nam, it's just stronger and brings the precip further nw. Now it boils down to which way the final trends set up. As of right now I'd rather be near the Ohio river for this one than columbus...yet again.... Last minute NW trends no longer seem to exist Looking at that euro map above. Considering how weak the nam is with it's depiction, if it had that same lp strength and placement, it would probably be driving the precip to detroit and we'd have rain This was a true thread-the-needle event. It initial speed/location of the s/w argue against a deep storm tracking along/west of the Mountains. It's just that the UKIE and a few EURO runs amplified it so rapidly it was able to make a tight left turn and start to go sub 985. It would have to go neg tilt at the precise right time for this to work out well for us...I'm not willing to put money on that. Yeah, SE OHIO is probably in the best spot. I'll wait for the full 12z suite and the release the towel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 This was a true thread-the-needle event. It initial speed/location of the s/w argue against a deep storm tracking along/west of the Mountains. It's just that the UKIE and a few EURO runs amplified it so rapidly it was able to make a tight left turn and start to go sub 985. It would have to go neg tilt at the precise right time for this to work out well for us...I'm not willing to put money on that. Yeah, SE OHIO is probably in the best spot. I'll wait for the full 12z suite and the release the towel. I think it's over at this point. 12z GFS is a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I think it's over at this point. 12z GFS is a disaster. Probably best for us to root for it to get as suppressed as possible so it gives the kicker clipper some room to amplify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Probably best for us to root for it to get as suppressed as possible so it gives the kicker clipper some room to amplify. Did the Euro even have that kicker clipper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Did the Euro even have that kicker clipper? It did, but nothing like the 6z GFS/12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 GEM coming in a bit further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 At 500mb, the setup this upcoming week seems similar to New Years 2008 (with the initial east coast / apps storm and then the hybrid clipper right behind it), which gave way to the snowstorm that was dmc76's favorite and probably my 3rd least favorite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 unreal that the ukie refuses to fold and at 60 hrs continues with a much stronger southern feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 the ukie at 72 hours. Best I could tell from the maps between it and the ggem...the reason it is so much stronger with the storm to the south is that it is way weaker with the clipper coming in from the nw. It allows it to amplify much more. the chances of the uk scoring a coupe aren't exactly strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 the ukie at 72 hours. Best I could tell from the maps between it and the ggem...the reason it is so much stronger with the storm to the south is that it is way weaker with the clipper coming in from the nw. It allows it to amplify much more. the chances of the uk scoring a coupe aren't exactly strong. Well it does have support form the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Been waiting for you guys to real this in lol. My suck hole looks to continue.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 talk about threading a needle. We are between the nw precip cut off and warm 850's. Sweet spot according to the euro is about one county se of us. Amazing consistency with the last 3 euro runs, except for some tiny blips either way. As far as low track and placement.... 1002 to WV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 for those interested... the follow up clipper takes a southern route along or just south of i-70, but weakens into OH and looks to drop a couple more inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 talk about threading a needle. We are between the nw precip cut off and warm 850's. Sweet spot according to the euro is about one county se of us. Amazing consistency with the last 3 euro runs, except for some tiny blips either way. As far as low track and placement.... 1002 to WV Crazy!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Crazy!! The euro taking this kind of consistency inside of 72 hours is hard to write off. More likely we start seeing the ncep brothers and the ggem start coming nw.... as well as uncle ukie start sobering up a little bit. Still looks like a sloppy storm for us, but that's the best we gonna get this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Drool over the UKIE. Does it still have the best H5 scores of any of the models? Still surprised that it, and to a lesser extent the EURO, haven't budged. Should have full sampling of the main wave by 0z. The kicker clipper won't be fully ashore until probably 0z tomorrow (maybe even later) so mysteries may still abound. My excitement is tempered by the fact that virtually all the GEFs have lost anything that resembles what the Ukie is dishing out. IIRC, about 5-6 runs ago, there were about half depicting something similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 the ukie at 72 hours. Best I could tell from the maps between it and the ggem...the reason it is so much stronger with the storm to the south is that it is way weaker with the clipper coming in from the nw. It allows it to amplify much more. the chances of the uk scoring a coupe aren't exactly strong. That freaking thing is so annoying. Lose it and we could actually be talking about something big here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Drool over the UKIE. Does it still have the best H5 scores of any of the models? Still surprised that it, and to a lesser extent the EURO, haven't budged. Should have full sampling of the main wave by 0z. The kicker clipper won't be fully ashore until probably 0z tomorrow so mysteries may still abound. My excitement is tempered by the fact that virtually all the GEFs have lost anything that resembles what the Ukie is dishing out. IIRC, about 5-6 runs ago, there were about half depicting something similar. D'Aleo has a good video explaining why the different camps. Basically if one strong system comes into the nw, you have the euro/uk win, if it comes in as 2 pieces, the gfs/nam/ggem win. So, the usual 'poor sampling' is the reason. Thinks models will have a closer consensus tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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