downeastnc Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I wouldn't be surprised if this is only a 2-3" event, but with how lousy the models have handled these last few storms QPF wise especially and the tendency of these type of systems to over perform ( this based on my experiences living my entire 43 yrs in Pitt Co) I have a fair bit of optimism that DT's map might be closer than modeling would appear to indicate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Disclaimer that I'm not in any way suggesting this would happen bit this is alot like the xmas 1989 storm. We were forecast to get small amount and then got thumped. Too bad busts like that never happen anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 This is looking to be a lot like what happened this past Sunday where there were dozens of accidents in a couple hours in JoCo alone in an hour's time... and that was on a low traffic day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Disclaimer that I'm not in any way suggesting this would happen bit this is alot like the xmas 1989 storm. We were forecast to get small amount and then got thumped. Too bad busts like that never happen anymore. Also back in 2008 or 2009 there was a setup real close to this that dumps 2-4" at PGV but had a band of 4-8" right along Hwy 17 and that was suppose to be a dusting -inch as well.....so was the 2014 system that gave us 4" the day before the main valentine day bust storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSU_Pi Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 This is looking to be a lot like what happened this past Sunday where there were dozens of accidents in a couple hours in JoCo alone in an hour's time... and that was on a low traffic day. I think I may plan on taking the 'ole Ten-Ten/Penny/Old South/Yates Mill backroads home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Unless something changes overnight, I've already let the wife know that we'll be doing her physical therapy session at home tomorrow. Would hate to go out and have roads get worse while we're at therapy. It's not a long drive, but the first 3 miles are on untreated roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 MHX weather briefing (4:00PM) http://www.weather.gov/media/mhx/LatestBriefing.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rawlee Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Huffman's call: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Allen has a great call map. Models rly backing off on precip now. Nam did a lot for western areas rgem as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Really feels like we're setting ourselves up for this one here in this area. But hey, you ride her till she bucks ya or don't ride at all, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VeronicaCorningstone Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Also back in 2008 or 2009 there was a setup real close to this that dumps 2-4" at PGV but had a band of 4-8" right along Hwy 17 and that was suppose to be a dusting -inch as well.....so was the 2014 system that gave us 4" the day before the main valentine day bust storm... Yep - that was in January 2009. I was living in Falkland at the time, and I remember we were supposed to get a trace. I think we ended up with about 3-4 inches. We'll be in that neighborhood tomorrow to visit parents so I'm keeping my fingers crossed this overperforms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rawlee Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Really feels like we're setting ourselves up for this one here in this area. But hey, you ride her till she bucks ya or don't ride at all, I guess. Am going into this expecting a dusting, so anything more will be cake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 They *did* extend the WWAs. CR - I'll feel better when I see those surface features start to set up. It looks like from the models we should see weak slp in north Alabama by mid-night or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I have a feeling we will see most of our dusting fall as Virga anyway lol. It's just not here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Am going into this expecting a dusting, so anything more will be cake. Man that's a good expectation. It's so sad when we have to be happy with a dusting of snow. Like expecting an inch is somehow so preposterous that we should be happy with a dusting. But it is amazing how hard it is anymore just to get an inch of snow here. We have to hope for a stupid clipper to give us a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Really feels like we're setting ourselves up for this one here in this area. But hey, you ride her till she bucks ya or don't ride at all, I guess. I'm just hoping to see some flakes in the air tomorrow. Anything more than that will be a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 They *did* extend the WWAs. CR - I'll feel better when I see those surface features start to set up. It looks like from the models we should see weak slp in north Alabama by mid-night or so. Yeah, exactly. We'll see. How hard is it to squeeze out .1" of precipitation when it's cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I'm just hoping to see some flakes in the air tomorrow. Anything more than that will be a bonus. Even sadder than what I wrote before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 18z GFS very light on precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Even sadder than what I wrote before. LOL...It's a sad time for RDU snow lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 18z GFS very light on precip Of course it is...LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 18z GFS Gives my area a little love... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 At this point, dusting to 1 inch is a safe bet for wake county. RDU could have a dusting and eastern wake could have 1/2 inch... we don't all live at RDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 With latest model runs even in pgv I would be concerned. Maybe an inch at best for pgv. I promise you guys we will watch 3/4ths of this qpf moisten the atmosphere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Nags Head looks like the jackpot to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rawlee Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 No need to fret gents, as soon as our Spring season starts we're sure to get several snow events. Happens every.single.time. We start mini camp Monday, coincidence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Maybe if we can't get the precip up, we can work on ratios. Let's see if we can get those up to 50:1, then we'll be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 With latest model runs even in pgv I would be concerned. Maybe an inch at best for pgv. I promise you guys we will watch 3/4ths of this qpf moisten the atmosphere Models take that into account though so if the models show .15" that's after saturation.....about the only thing I am certain is that the way this plays out is most likely poorly modeled and it wont be until the surface features get going that we get a clue as to which of these runs are the closest.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ragtop50 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I'll take anything frozen down my way (northern Cumberland County) as long as it isn't freezing rain again. Still cleaning up from the one in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Models take that into account though so if the models show .15" that's after saturation.....about the only thing I am certain is that the way this plays out is most likely poorly modeled and it wont be until the surface features get going that we get a clue as to which of these runs are the closest.... That's very true. One reason these systems are so boom or bust is because even a little bit stronger lp than modeled and that juices up the system a lot. HRRR and rap will give us a better idea I would think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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