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February Mid/long Range Winter Discussion


TARHEELPROGRAMMER

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Me and snowgoose are talking about the synoptic setup as a whole. I can't speak for snowgoose but my analysis is not based off of raw snow maps.

neither is mine. The snow maps are for the board to see not to try and prove a point.

Care to explain your analysis? Mine is laid out in previous posts.

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That would be especially bad because of the initial very cold surface temps. Basically all that freezing rain would stick straight to the roads.

 

edit: I bet there would be a lot of sleet mixed in to drop that total some.

 

Yikes, I don't even want to think about seeing .75 of freezing rain in this area.

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He mirrors my thoughts here..as the 12z gfs looks very promising for meso high formation. Besides the obvious reasons i like the gfs has precip spreading eastward across the carolinas early/first which would only serve to promote such a feature due to the timing of evap cooling. Due to the initially very cold temps and even lower wet bulbs at the start combined with what is likely underestimated pressures which enhances easterly or ne flow...any warming the gfs is showing is almost for sure overdone and too fast.

 

Which event was that about 2 years ago that nailed your area pretty good while most modeling said it'd be too warm for ZR?

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Which event was that about 2 years ago that nailed your area pretty good while most modeling said it'd be too warm for ZR?

 

That was February of last year, it looked too warm for Northeast Georgia even like 36hrs from the start of the event. We didn't know it was going to be a bad ice storm for Northeast Georgia until nowcasting time when temps and dewpoints were much lower than progged.

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Even with the amped up Euro the area from NE Georgia to the foothills of NC/SC see a pretty good ice event before it changes to rain, at least in SC and GA. Here maybe a bit of ice at the front end and then a nasty 35 degree rain. Do not like ice storms anyway. I have totally given up on snow here with this one, nothing really shows it any more. Bring on the 60s late next week as the PNA goes negative and the AO positive. I am getting in the severe weather mood....

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Hard to argue with the Euro verification scores posted earlier.

 

I think the Euro para has been better, though. And it has a completely different solution. Unless the other three start showing a cutter like the Euro and UK, then we still have two different solutions on the table and not any kind of trend towards one solution or the other. Just have to wait to see what the other models do.

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I think the Euro para has been better, though. And it has a completely different solution. Unless the other three start showing a cutter like the Euro and UK, then we still have two different solutions on the table and not any kind of trend towards one solution or the other. Just have to wait to see what the other models do.

 

Brick.  The 12z GGEM has the ZR accumulation further North and West versus just last nights run!  Less sleet and snow.  The idea of the Euro/UKMET has legs when all is said and done.

 

Last night it was a sleetfest in GSP.  Now its a ZR fest.

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