franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Me and snowgoose are talking about the synoptic setup as a whole. I can't speak for snowgoose but my analysis is not based off of raw snow maps.neither is mine. The snow maps are for the board to see not to try and prove a point. Care to explain your analysis? Mine is laid out in previous posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 neither is mine. The snow maps are for the board to see not to try and prove a point. Care to explain your analysis? Mine is laid out in previous posts. Thanks for posting the Maps Franklin!! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 neither is mine. The snow maps are for the board to see not to try and prove a point. Care to explain your analysis? Mine is laid out in previous posts. Oh okay. I see. ill explain tonight. You got me weenieing out over those maps tho! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Only about half of those GFS ensembles show anything appreciable for RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 That would be especially bad because of the initial very cold surface temps. Basically all that freezing rain would stick straight to the roads. edit: I bet there would be a lot of sleet mixed in to drop that total some. Yikes, I don't even want to think about seeing .75 of freezing rain in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Yikes, I don't even want to think about seeing .75 of freezing rain in this area. True. However, do not forget the past. When we are in a marginal temps situation, always bet on wet around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 He mirrors my thoughts here..as the 12z gfs looks very promising for meso high formation. Besides the obvious reasons i like the gfs has precip spreading eastward across the carolinas early/first which would only serve to promote such a feature due to the timing of evap cooling. Due to the initially very cold temps and even lower wet bulbs at the start combined with what is likely underestimated pressures which enhances easterly or ne flow...any warming the gfs is showing is almost for sure overdone and too fast. Which event was that about 2 years ago that nailed your area pretty good while most modeling said it'd be too warm for ZR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 ok boys.....the King is running out to wee hours of Monday morning on Storm Vista Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Which event was that about 2 years ago that nailed your area pretty good while most modeling said it'd be too warm for ZR? That was February of last year, it looked too warm for Northeast Georgia even like 36hrs from the start of the event. We didn't know it was going to be a bad ice storm for Northeast Georgia until nowcasting time when temps and dewpoints were much lower than progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 light precip in NE Ga and WNC by noon. Nice looking wedge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Looks amped early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Horrible euro run Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Cutter Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 It's one run. See what the para says. It has been more accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 out to 132....extreme NE corner of GA looks to have an area of 2 - 4" of snow. 1 - 2" into upstate SC and WNC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 It's one run. See what the para says. It has been more accurate. Actually it's two, and the ukmet shows that same solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 It's one run. See what the para says. It has been more accurate. Gonna have to support the idea eventually. It's trending. It's not just one bad run imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 How do the mountains fare on the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Gonna have to support the idea eventually. It's trending. It's not just one bad run imo. Not really trending if the other models are completely different from the Euro and UK still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Not really trending if the other models are completely different from the Euro and UK still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 How is it a trend? Euro and UK have a cutter. All the other models don't. Unless one trends to the other, then it's not a trend yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Every single model doesn't have to "trend" in order for it to be a "trend." lol In my book one model that for atleast 2 runs moves in the same direction i.e. 2 runs each more NW than the last= a trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Not really trending if the other models are completely different from the Euro and UK still. Hard to argue with the Euro verification scores posted earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Hard to argue with the Euro verification scores posted earlier. Euro was pretty bad with the last system I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Still two completely different solutions on the table. It's not a trend until some start looking like the others. Right now we have two models showing one thing, and the others showing something else. That's not a trend, that's still two different solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Even if this thing cuts, you could potentially be looking at a moderate impact type of event, especially on the roads given how cold the ground will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORWX Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 What is causing the over amped solution on the Euro? Stronger wave initially? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Even with the amped up Euro the area from NE Georgia to the foothills of NC/SC see a pretty good ice event before it changes to rain, at least in SC and GA. Here maybe a bit of ice at the front end and then a nasty 35 degree rain. Do not like ice storms anyway. I have totally given up on snow here with this one, nothing really shows it any more. Bring on the 60s late next week as the PNA goes negative and the AO positive. I am getting in the severe weather mood.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Hard to argue with the Euro verification scores posted earlier. I think the Euro para has been better, though. And it has a completely different solution. Unless the other three start showing a cutter like the Euro and UK, then we still have two different solutions on the table and not any kind of trend towards one solution or the other. Just have to wait to see what the other models do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 I think the Euro para has been better, though. And it has a completely different solution. Unless the other three start showing a cutter like the Euro and UK, then we still have two different solutions on the table and not any kind of trend towards one solution or the other. Just have to wait to see what the other models do. Brick. The 12z GGEM has the ZR accumulation further North and West versus just last nights run! Less sleet and snow. The idea of the Euro/UKMET has legs when all is said and done. Last night it was a sleetfest in GSP. Now its a ZR fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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