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Ian

Jan 22-24 blizzard obs, tracking, nowcasting #2

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Band coming up the bay is 14,000 KFT with 5-10 VIL and has dropped a inch of liquid over the bay and Western eastern shore in 45 Min

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I don't know if I can believe the hrrr and rap but they both dump another 20"+ on top of 1am totals for many of us. And it's still snowing at the ends of the runs. Zero dryslot worries west of the bay as well.

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Holy ****.

Don't listen to him, that's probably enhanced returns from Ice Pellets or rimed flakes.

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I don't know if I can believe the hrrr and rap but they both dump another 20"+ on top of 1am totals for many of us. And it's still snowing at the ends of the runs. Zero dryslot worries west of the bay as well.

What link are you using for rap?

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Just went out for a measurement.  There are snow drifts all over.  Took measurements on top of my car in a relative save zone from the wind and there was 12" on top.  Some other random measurements ranged between 10" and 13".  I think it's safe to say Herndon has at least 12" and it is still dumping.  The bands are dying down by the time they get here, but they're still impressive.

 

I wonder if the LWX radar messes with some of my returns?

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I don't know if I can believe the hrrr and rap but they both dump another 20"+ on top of 1am totals for many of us. And it's still snowing at the ends of the runs. Zero dryslot worries west of the bay as well.

 

I'm just a weenie but that sounds awesome. 

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(Great) Blizzard of 2016 Observations


1:30pm--0.0", -SN


2:30pm--0.1", -SN (close to SN, dusting on secondary roads)


3:30pm--0.7", SN (light wind, secondary roads covered, main roads with slushy accumulation)


4:30pm--1.3", SN (same as last update, but with main roads covered now)


5:30pm--1.9", SN (closing in on +SN with dropping visibility, first notable wind gusts appearing)


6:30pm--2.3", SN (everything covered heavily, minor gusts)


7:30pm--3.5", SN (suspect hour, looks like drifting has begun, used multiple neighborhood measurements)


8:30pm--4.3", SN (prior hour ob confirmed, breezy)


9:30pm--5.1", +SN (first legit wind gusts, visibility below 1/4SM)


12:00am--7.1", -SN (50% dendrites, 40% smaller flakes, 10% rimed flakes)


2:00am--10.1", +SN (windy, but below blizzard criteria, below 1/4SM)


 


WOW that was a very nice walk. I was surprised to see that much at 2am, but it was absolutely ripping outside and this was taken during deathband 2. I did 20 measurements around the neighborhood and there was a strong plurality of 10.0 and 10.1 readings, 10.1 edged things out...after walking about 15 more minutes I had readings near 11". Those were tossed. 


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I don't know if I can believe the hrrr and rap but they both dump another 20"+ on top of 1am totals for many of us. And it's still snowing at the ends of the runs. Zero dryslot worries west of the bay as well.

 

lol.  the pivot is definitely occurring,so who knows.  this is already a significant accumulation.  at this point, the question is how much of the cars will be showing in the morning.

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I don't know if I can believe the hrrr and rap but they both dump another 20"+ on top of 1am totals for many of us. And it's still snowing at the ends of the runs. Zero dryslot worries west of the bay as well.

 

LOL, let's do it. This is my largest snowfall since moving to DC. Feeling pretty good, but I need ~13" more to feel great :P

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NCAR Ensemble soundings don't get above freezing for Washington DC throughout the duration of the storm. I wouldn't worry about sleet ruining ratios. Especially with these dynamics.

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This stuff on the bay is for real wind is making the house creek. it is not sleet it is rimed flake mixed with the regular puking flakes.  this is nuts I mean really 

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I don't know if I can believe the hrrr and rap but they both dump another 20"+ on top of 1am totals for many of us. And it's still snowing at the ends of the runs. Zero dryslot worries west of the bay as well.

 

yes...any "dryslots" west of the bay will probably just be mini-lulls as the precip field continues to reorient itself during the pivot

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