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Meteorological Super Bowl During AFC Championship? 1/23-1/24, Part II

CapturedNature

By CapturedNature,
in New England

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

I know we joke around here about tossing solutions all the time, but it's an important reminder that it's usually unwise to completely remove a model unless there is an obvious reason.

Clearly the NAM wasn't a bad model to blend in this time around, I would argue the SREF were, especially up here. But CTP loves the SREF.

which makes Ryans Twitter video of him tossing the Nam into the trash even more funny
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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
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which makes Ryans Twitter video of him tossing the Nam into the trash even more funny

 

I still think it was funny.

 

The model is totally unreliable, but as part of a blended approach you can mitigate those issues.

 

Honestly you really shouldn't stray too far from a blend until you're within that 24 hour window, nowcast time.

 

Forecast contests show time and time again, it's hard to beat consensus.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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While we sit by and by ...vicariously submerged in delusion over despair, denying our collective sense of loss in matters... (muah ahhahaha) ...

 

Seriously, I'm sure you guys must have covered this ...?  It looked to me like the 00z operational Euro had a kind of 1-3" along rt 2 (E of the Berk's), with around 3-5 along the Pike (or so) ranging to much more down in SW CT ... kind of look.  

 

It's like it had to concede in its own rite off of its stubborn high horse refusal to acknowledge SNE even exists in those previous runs...  Dad has to admit that ankle-biter son (NAM) was right about smell of smoke? 

 

Haha.  I think it is fun ...if perhaps a bit daffy, to anthropromorphise the models - not to be off-putting, but it feels so personal sometimes, doesn't it?  This "monster storm" was deliberately engineered as a mean-spirited affront to SNE, by the vagarious gods of the wind.  

 

In less commiseration, we don't typically get bigger storms at/along our latitude without S/Ws turning the corner coming off the MA ... to where they reach their greatest amplitude.  This thing did all that way too early in its life-cycle.  I mentioned this yesterday; and it is still all evidenced in the fact that come this time tomorrow morning, ... the trough is entirely opened back up and well nearing its destination of non-existence ... a mere 48 hours or so later.  

 

I don't see a lot vector-based inhibition over the next 18 to 24 hours, for bringing this further N, but it really appears its just losing the mechanical/thermodynamics ability to do so ... likely related to the preceding paragraph.  For one, dry air: if the air were saturable to a depth of 5, K or so, would help.  We'd already have light snow clear to Manchester NH.  But I'm sitting at 23/14 here in Ayer, under a sky that looks as though it is snowing at 10 thousand feet.  This is just one factor capable of preventing a geriatric storm. ...there's likely others, too...

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JC-CT

JC-CT

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I still think it was funny.

The model is totally unreliable, but as part of a blended approach you can mitigate those issues.

Honestly you really shouldn't stray too far from a blend until you're within that 24 hour window, nowcast time.

Forecast contests show time and time again, it's hard to beat consensus.

It spits out some crazy solutions at the end of its range, but to me it was a red flag when it moved away from the globals significantly for two straight runs in a row, especially when you had the ukie, arpege, and jma arguing that the Euro and gfs were too far south. Usually it starts out in left field and slowly makes its way back to the dugout.

The jma was actually very consistent with the further north cutoff.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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The last several hours of radar ... this is really a narrow sort of ordeal.   Get outside of an ~ 50 ..75 mile swath and this is pedestrian in a hurry ..if even a non-event.  

 

But inside that swath?   potentially life threatening.  

 

man, it would be something to have radar during 1888, curious what that would have looked like. 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
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I still think it was funny.

The model is totally unreliable, but as part of a blended approach you can mitigate those issues.

Honestly you really shouldn't stray too far from a blend until you're within that 24 hour window, nowcast time.

Forecast contests show time and time again, it's hard to beat consensus.

oh I certainly know,just love the irony in your post
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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

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The RAP and many other short terms really make the secondary push around 21z for eastern areas. So I think the time for BOS region is between about 3 or 4pm to midnight or so.

 

I agree, looked like the start of anything good was going to be about 21z. That's when the new mid level lows or the dumbell occurs based on 12z modeling.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

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serious gravity wave stuff, so cool to watch in KDP mode in radar

 

They have to be getting pummeled in NW NJ right now. There is a stationary boundary just NW of NYC that you can see the inflow is slamming into. And just NW of that is the big deformation band (which is slowly starting to sink south).

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HullMA

HullMA

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Quoting myself from 2 days ago!
 

"Here is my opinion. Models tend to oscillate with their outputs until they hone in on a "plausible" soloution. I have seen it countless times over the years. Models start off either too far north or south and then correct too far the other direction, only to find a soloution somewhere in the middle. Cheers. Hope people can respect my observations of watching the models from a non-met perspective for nearly 10 years.

I really think people also need to let go of their pre-conditioned NAM hate. Yeah it sucked 7-8 years ago. It has pulled many coups in my opinion."

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47652-meteorological-super-bowl-during-afc-championship-123-124/?p=3902260

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