Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 I know we joke around here about tossing solutions all the time, but it's an important reminder that it's usually unwise to completely remove a model unless there is an obvious reason. Clearly the NAM wasn't a bad model to blend in this time around, I would argue the SREF were, especially up here. But CTP loves the SREF. which makes Ryans Twitter video of him tossing the Nam into the trash even more funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Gfs ha upped their totals again. 0.5 line to the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 That dry air to the north seems to be making it south! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 That air is so damn dry on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 The dry air will win at least fr the next several hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 which makes Ryans Twitter video of him tossing the Nam into the trash even more funny I still think it was funny. The model is totally unreliable, but as part of a blended approach you can mitigate those issues. Honestly you really shouldn't stray too far from a blend until you're within that 24 hour window, nowcast time. Forecast contests show time and time again, it's hard to beat consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 The dry air will win at least fr the next several hours. Yep, pretty good dry layer at 850 mb on the 12z CHH sounding, and farther north GYX was 0.11" PWAT. Lots of dry air lurking up in NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 While we sit by and by ...vicariously submerged in delusion over despair, denying our collective sense of loss in matters... (muah ahhahaha) ... Seriously, I'm sure you guys must have covered this ...? It looked to me like the 00z operational Euro had a kind of 1-3" along rt 2 (E of the Berk's), with around 3-5 along the Pike (or so) ranging to much more down in SW CT ... kind of look. It's like it had to concede in its own rite off of its stubborn high horse refusal to acknowledge SNE even exists in those previous runs... Dad has to admit that ankle-biter son (NAM) was right about smell of smoke? Haha. I think it is fun ...if perhaps a bit daffy, to anthropromorphise the models - not to be off-putting, but it feels so personal sometimes, doesn't it? This "monster storm" was deliberately engineered as a mean-spirited affront to SNE, by the vagarious gods of the wind. In less commiseration, we don't typically get bigger storms at/along our latitude without S/Ws turning the corner coming off the MA ... to where they reach their greatest amplitude. This thing did all that way too early in its life-cycle. I mentioned this yesterday; and it is still all evidenced in the fact that come this time tomorrow morning, ... the trough is entirely opened back up and well nearing its destination of non-existence ... a mere 48 hours or so later. I don't see a lot vector-based inhibition over the next 18 to 24 hours, for bringing this further N, but it really appears its just losing the mechanical/thermodynamics ability to do so ... likely related to the preceding paragraph. For one, dry air: if the air were saturable to a depth of 5, K or so, would help. We'd already have light snow clear to Manchester NH. But I'm sitting at 23/14 here in Ayer, under a sky that looks as though it is snowing at 10 thousand feet. This is just one factor capable of preventing a geriatric storm. ...there's likely others, too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 The dry air will win at least fr the next several hours. Yes. Its easy to lose sight of the fact that even if we wee to get creamed, it wouldn't be until tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 I still think it was funny. The model is totally unreliable, but as part of a blended approach you can mitigate those issues. Honestly you really shouldn't stray too far from a blend until you're within that 24 hour window, nowcast time. Forecast contests show time and time again, it's hard to beat consensus. It spits out some crazy solutions at the end of its range, but to me it was a red flag when it moved away from the globals significantly for two straight runs in a row, especially when you had the ukie, arpege, and jma arguing that the Euro and gfs were too far south. Usually it starts out in left field and slowly makes its way back to the dugout.The jma was actually very consistent with the further north cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Gfs ha upped their totals again. 0.5 line to the pike. We up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 The last several hours of radar ... this is really a narrow sort of ordeal. Get outside of an ~ 50 ..75 mile swath and this is pedestrian in a hurry ..if even a non-event. But inside that swath? potentially life threatening. man, it would be something to have radar during 1888, curious what that would have looked like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 It was never supposed to be snowing here yet so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Lol I think the its over post are pretty funny happens every time it will look better in a few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 I still think it was funny. The model is totally unreliable, but as part of a blended approach you can mitigate those issues. Honestly you really shouldn't stray too far from a blend until you're within that 24 hour window, nowcast time. Forecast contests show time and time again, it's hard to beat consensus. oh I certainly know,just love the irony in your post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 OKX has some 30-36 areas on their new snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 oh I certainly know,just love the irony in your post I'm sure my AFD would've read that I'm discounting the NAM, but in the end it might have made up 10-20% of a blend depending on the time range of the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 The RAP and many other short terms really make the secondary push around 21z for eastern areas. So I think the time for BOS region is between about 3 or 4pm to midnight or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 The RAP and many other short terms really make the secondary push around 21z for eastern areas. So I think the time for BOS region is between about 3 or 4pm to midnight or so. I agree, looked like the start of anything good was going to be about 21z. That's when the new mid level lows or the dumbell occurs based on 12z modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 I just noticed MAV snow number is up to 6 for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 I just noticed MAV snow number is up to 6 for BOS. What was IJD vs BDL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 What was IJD vs BDL? IJD: 8 BDL: 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 IJD: 8 BDL: 6 I'd take 2-3" of snow and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanjn Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Ensembles the ol' fashioned way Looks close enough to map last night if I were to add a bit of life and some curves to it. So I'm sticking with the map I made at midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 GInx mentioned the QPF bump for NJ. With the H8 feed from Bermuda at 80 knots or so, slamming into the deformation, that should be some efficient precip production. serious gravity wave stuff, so cool to watch in KDP mode in radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 serious gravity wave stuff, so cool to watch in KDP mode in radar They have to be getting pummeled in NW NJ right now. There is a stationary boundary just NW of NYC that you can see the inflow is slamming into. And just NW of that is the big deformation band (which is slowly starting to sink south). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 They have to be getting pummeled in NW NJ right now. There is a stationary boundary just NW of NYC that you can see the inflow is slamming into. And just NW of that is the big deformation band (which is slowly starting to sink south).EPA,wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Still.think as a snowfall distribution similarities March 58 like ,to much in 58 north but in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Interesting blow-up occurring off the VA capes, any thoughts as to what is going on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HullMA Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Quoting myself from 2 days ago! "Here is my opinion. Models tend to oscillate with their outputs until they hone in on a "plausible" soloution. I have seen it countless times over the years. Models start off either too far north or south and then correct too far the other direction, only to find a soloution somewhere in the middle. Cheers. Hope people can respect my observations of watching the models from a non-met perspective for nearly 10 years.I really think people also need to let go of their pre-conditioned NAM hate. Yeah it sucked 7-8 years ago. It has pulled many coups in my opinion."http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47652-meteorological-super-bowl-during-afc-championship-123-124/?p=3902260 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.