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1/23-24 Randytastic Snowstorm Part 2 STORM MODE THREAD


BxEngine

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000

FXUS61 KOKX 222124

AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

424 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND REMAINS OVER THE REGION

THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AS A

FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT

MOVES ACROSS EARLY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH

TUESDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

ANALYSIS OF GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN/NAM INDICATES A FASTER ONSET OF

SNOW TONIGHT. EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT.

POTENT TROUGH AND SFC LOW PIVOTS EAST...WITH LOW PRESSURE

DEEPENING RAPIDLY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.

EXPECT SNOW ACCUMS TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES NEAR THE COAST TO

LITTLE ACCUMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR BY SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

SNOW AMOUNTS IN GENERAL WILL BE RAISED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE

COAST.

COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND HPC. NAM CLOSED AND WRAPPED

UP WHEREAS GFS/ECMWF MUCH MORE ELONGATED WITH PIVOTING UPPER

TROUGH/CLOSED LOW. DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEARS THE 40N/70W

BENCHMARK...AND FORECAST ALL DEPENDS ON BANDING/FRONTOGENETIC

FORCING AND PLACEMENT. NAM QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN PLACING HEAVY SNOW

BAND/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE AREA EAST TO WEST...AND

IT IS REFLECTED IN IT/S QPF.

VERY GOOD QPF AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AND VARIOUS ENSEMBLE

MEMBERS FOR A GENERAL 1 TO 1 1/2 INCH AMOUNT NEAR THE COAST...TO AS

LITTLE AS A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS THE INTERIOR...PARTICULARLY

NW ZONES.

WILL MAINTAIN BLIZZARD WARNING ALONG THE COAST. VERY STRONG WINDS

OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH WILL RESULT IN POOR VSBYS

IN HEAVY SNOW/BLOWING SNOW.

FURTHER TO THE NORTH...CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH FOR BLIZZARD

CONDITIONS...BUT UPGRADED WATCHES TO WARNINGS FOR MUCH OF THE

AREA...EXCEPT ADVISORIES INTERIOR SW CT...AND MAINTAINED WATCH FOR

ORANGE AND PUTNAM COUNTIES. THIS DUE TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS

TIME FURTHER NW. A SLIGHT OSCILLATION OF QPF SHIELD NORTH OR

SOUTH MAKES ALL THE DIFFERENCE...BUT FOR CONSISTENCY...WENT WITH

WINTER WX ADV FOR INTERIOR CT...EXCEPT NEW LONDON AND CSTL ZONES.

SNOW WILL END LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY.

TEMPS QUITE COLD PER MOS BLEND.

 
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As long as you're within the blue contour you're golden. Nobody knows what the actual amounts are going to be because of mesoscale banding. Use the higher res models and short terms for that.

Seems 18z GFS is not following NAM/SREFS etc, less QPF for the City and weaker storm overall

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I agree. The other offices e.g., Mount Holly had a similar image. That image no longer exists and the designated webpage updates. Hopefully, the issue will be resolved so that the linked page updates as soon as the information has changed.

 

Actually, I wish I knew how to copy/paste those snowfall maps into other places (another board I post on) and have them be static, so the graphic didn't automatically change when the source webpage was updated.  I find that annoying - don't think it happens here for some reason.  

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