MJO812 Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 there is not going to be any real phasing in that setup - you are correct - flow too fast - doesn't have enough blocking in front of it People said the same thing with this past storm. You still have a positive pna. Flow isnt that fast. Timing issues once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Jb likes feb 5-8 1967 as an analog for next storm.Time to track it. What impact did that storm have for NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Jb likes feb 5-8 1967 as an analog for next storm.Time to track it. Explain, please, for uninitiated. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 What impact did that storm have for NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 People said the same thing with this past storm. You still have a positive pna. Flow isnt that fast. Timing issues once again. Same thing with the temps. A week out, forecasting agencies had our Friday temps at 37, but in the end, we didn't crack freezing on either day. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Looks like the Gefs support a storm near or slightly east of the BM. Going to be a thread the needle event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Jb likes feb 5-8 1967 as an analog for next storm.Time to track it. I got an idea - when you quote someone off their twitter page qoute the whole tweet - he also said in that tweet that the amounts would likely be lower then the Feb 7th 1967 storm - that storm delivered 15 inches in NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 DT says NYC 4-8 with blizzard warningWhat is his Twitter handle do you know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 I got an idea - when you quote someone off their twitter page qoute the whole tweet - he also said in that tweet that the amounts would likely be lower then the Feb 7th 1967 storm - that storm delivered 15 inches in NYCExcellent point and that's exactly what he said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 EPS/ I can`t show the in between panel but the Euro kisses OBX So the EPS is out of the gulf off the GA coast to OBX then to the BM . The GEFS is still too far east . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 I got an idea - when you quote someone off their twitter page qoute the whole tweet - he also said in that tweet that the amounts would likely be lower then the Feb 7th 1967 storm - that storm delivered 15 inches in NYC He thinks 6 to 12 . We will see . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Credit to @crankywxguy on twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Looks like the Gefs support a storm near or slightly east of the BM. Going to be a thread the needle event. I'm pretty sure it could be argued that every event is a "thread the needle" event. Some just have more wiggle room than others due to blocking or what have you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 February 1967 was two separate storms...The first one on Monday the 6th put down 2.7" and it cleared up late afternoon...By midnight it was cloudy again with snow developing...It snowed 12.5" and ended late in the afternoon...15.2" for the two events...15" snow depth after both storms..., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Feb 67..one of my favorite childhood storms.NYC public schools we're closed..Listened to WABC all day for the latest forecast all day with Kind Of A Drag,Ruby Tuesday and 98.6 on the radio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Feb 67..one of my favorite childhood storms.NYC public schools we're closed..Listened to WABC all day for the latest forecast all day with Kind Of A Drag,Ruby Tuesday and 98.6 on the radio February 1967 had many chances... Atlantic city got an 18" storm about a week later but NYC got 2"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Thats the winter I became a weather fan.Christmas eve blizzard and Feb,March 67 was awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Thanks so much for taking the time to explain this. I guess I'll be taking the NAM seriously from now on. I know it was upgraded recently as well. Christ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Christ Not sure if id consider the NAM a resurrected god yet, but glad you came around on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Not sure if id consider the NAM a resurrected god yet, but glad you came around on it.There's no point in looking at any other models now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 There's no point in looking at any other models now. I dunno that french one was pretty good too. Its no nam yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Not sure if id consider the NAM a resurrected god yet, but glad you came around on it. Oy. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Mitchel Volk started a thread for the next possible system. Might be good juju to have a met start it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 I dunno that french one was pretty good too. Its no nam yet though.Between you and me, the NAM totally dropped the ball IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Give it a day or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Between you and me, the NAM totally dropped the ball IMBY It was close enough....no one cares about anything north of roughly 233rd street anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 It was close enough....no one cares about anything north of roughly 233rd street anyway. Anything north of there is called Nebraska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Anything north of there is called Nebraska. Canada. Nebraska is west of froky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Aka the barren wasteland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 It's gonna be great when the NAMRR takes over and is run every hour like the HRRR. Even better when they run the GFS hourly up to day five in a few years. Imagine the possibilities. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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