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Continued Winter Banter.


Ericjcrash

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What world do you live in? In the last 15 years, LI has gotten buried. Many areas are close to 40" average.

I'm not talking about ancient history in the 80s and 90s.

You're on LI as well. Add up the last 15yrs and tell me your 15yr average.

I'm in Brooklyn and have mostly done worse than NYC.

And yes, they have gotten slammed recently. But historically, they have tainted.

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Don S posted this on the main board this morning, just wanted to share it here since i'm not sure how many people actually saw it.

 

 

Some early thoughts on the January 22-24 Snowstorm…

 

So far, most of the guidance, excepting yesterday’s 12z run of the ECMWF, which was an outlier, indicates that the upcoming snowstorm could bring 10” or more snow to Washington, DC to New York City. Since 1950, only three January snowstorms have brought 10” or more snow to Washington, DC, Philadelphia, and New York City, including the one that was underway today in 1978.

 

At this point in time, the consistency of the guidance, including yesterday’s 12z ECMWF run, strongly suggests that the Baltimore to Washington, DC region could experience one of its five biggest snowstorms on record since at least the late 19th century. If the guidance holds, that region could be facing a 20”-30” snowfall. It’s too soon to reach firm conclusions right now, as details concerning the storm remain to be worked out, but that’s where the guidance has been over the past 48 hours.

 

My initial thinking is below:

 

BWIDCA01202016_2.jpg

 

The five biggest snowstorms on record for Baltimore and Washington, DC are below:

 

BWIDCA01202016.jpg

 

This storm is likely to reach blizzard proportions along parts of the East Coast. Moreover, the combination of a full moon and very high onshore winds could create significant coastal flooding and beach erosion. Such an impact will be a notable aspect of this storm aside from its prolific snows in parts of the Middle Atlantic region.

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I'm in Brooklyn and have mostly done worse than NYC.

And yes, they have gotten slammed recently. But historically, they have tainted.

Long Island,especially Suffolk county has done super well past oh, 5-10 years roughly. Past 3 winters many storms came along with mixing forecasted and temps rise above freezing, only to reach the freezing mark and then drop. If it changed to sleet or rain, it froze on everything and went back to snow. Now, I can't say that's how the ocean shorelines ended up,or even montauk,but I know the north shore especially,has done very well.
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My earlier post got deleted but I'll put it on the banter. My thoughts on the incoming storm are: NYC 18-24 inches with a sharp cut off north of i84. Putnam county should be around 8-12. The confluence should end up weaker as this storm ends up being much stronger than modeled fueled by warmer than normal waters. I think will end up being a blizzard for all NYC and Long Island with winds up to 60mph gusts. I will have a snow map later today.

Edit: I do not see any rain mix issues anywhere but the far Montauk area even then they should get at least 6 inches as the low pulls out the colder rushes in back and turns everything back to snow. Time to get excited honestly

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Enjoy the snow city and folks We folks just to your north will look on from the outside with envy as we continue to wait and watch. Hoping things trend better, but based on the latest Euro, I think I have to accept reality.

Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk

You guys are in no way out of it, this far out. I do think there will be a steep gradient though so your going to need a 50 mile north shift which is entirely possible

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Enjoy the snow city and folks We folks just to your north will look on from the outside with envy as we continue to wait and watch. Hoping things trend better, but based on the latest Euro, I think I have to accept reality.

Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk

Way to early for that!  Pick up that towel and we'll all pretend you didn't toss it. ;)

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The 12z   op ECMWF   is an outlier

 neither the  0z euro ensemble  mean   ...the  high res GEFS  ensemnle mean ...or the cmc  ensemble mean have  nearly the same as the  12z  op   ECMWF   for snow in   north NJ  NYC  LI  or CT

 

I don't know who should be banned more from the NYC metro, me for being a patriots fan in NYC or DT :rolleyes:

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I don't know where this belongs, so I'll put it in banter: the Feb 2010 storm that everyone alludes to actually moved a bit more north with its heavy precipitation than forecasted. Southern/Central NJ and Philly did very well. Just goes to show that south of the sharp cutoff - if there is one here - could overperform as well

I well remember that storm. I was in Cape May at the time, which received around two feet of heavy wet snow. Driving back, the clouds were broken once one neared the NJ Turnpike-Garden State Parkway intersection.

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I don't know who should be banned more from the NYC metro, me for being a patriots fan in NYC or DT :rolleyes:

 

A quibble over clown maps....in the main thread...cool.....

 

I value the guy's input and knowledge of meteorology, but I don't understand his tendency to stir the pot.  Given his expertise, I see it as beneath him.  Boooooo.

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I don't know who should be banned more from the NYC metro, me for being a patriots fan in NYC or DT :rolleyes:

To be fair, I see how Dave is pointing out the difference. However, I'm not ready to go so far as to call it an outlier. After all, its output (1.25" for NYC) was essentially the same as its 0z output (1.22"). Moreover, its QPF falls squarely in the midst of the range of QPF scenarios from the other guidance.

 

At least for me, I think it's prudent to reserve judgment and wait for the 12z EPS to come out, along with subsequent runs of the other guidance and operational ECMWF. In the end, it might well be overdoing things, but at least for me, I can't clearly make such a case--at least not some 72 hours from the possible event.

 

Personally, I thought yesterday's 12z run was more suspect, as it came out so much lower than the other guidance, not to mention the preceding 0z run. I didn't rule such an outcome out, but posted elsewhere on this forum that it was too soon to throw in the proverbial towel. As things turned out, its next run showed 1.22", which was pretty close to the preceding 0z run and more in line with the other guidance.

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To be fair, I see how Dave is pointing out the difference. However, I'm not ready to go so far as to call it an outlier. After all, its output (1.25" for NYC) was essentially the same as its 0z output (1.22"). Moreover, its QPF falls squarely in the midst of the range of QPF scenarios from the other guidance.

 

At least for me, I think it's prudent to reserve judgment and wait for the 12z EPS to come out, along with subsequent runs of the other guidance and operational ECMWF. In the end, it might well be overdoing things, but at least for me, I can't clearly make such a case--at least not some 72 hours from the possible event.

 

Personally, I thought yesterday's 12z run was more suspect, as it came out so much lower than the other guidance, not to mention the preceding 0z run. I didn't rule such an outcome out, but posted elsewhere on this forum that it was too soon to throw in the proverbial towel. As things turned out, its next run showed 1.22", which was pretty close to the preceding 0z run and more in line with the other guidance.

Don, how much stock do you put in QPF outputs at this range?

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