WeatherNC Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Guys I posted this in the mid Atlantic forum, however I do have a question in reference to the progression of the vort in TN and KY. If that thing passes overhead of me will that hurt me or will the strengthening effect of the primary low compensate for it passing overhead? You want to be about 50-200 miles removed from the 700mb track on the NW side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 CMC 12z Quick read sketch out... Surface Dewpoints lol, for CLT. Can't even get winter precip with the CMC! I'm going to see what the EURO and Ensembles say today. If they have the same Bish transfer with a low in the central gulf states, I'm moving on to February. Where is that dang SSW anyway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Ugh, looks like a nasty ice storm outside of the mountains in NC. I would rather it just come north and give us rain than that Zr mess (mainly areas North and west of GSO that is) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 GFS ens are shifting towards the op. more members are where the op is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The 00z Parallel Euro is very far south. Crushes NC and SE VA. DC gets almost nothing. Probably just a wonky run, but hmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The 00z Parallel Euro is very far south. Crushes NC. DC gets almost nothing. Hmm... Finally good news for Carolinas and Georgia! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Model wars continue. GFS furthest north, but the ensembles are further south. All the ensembles seem to be further south than the ops for all the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Still a lot of spread on the GEFS- (but not down here LOL) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The 00z Parallel Euro is very far south. Crushes NC and SE VA. DC gets almost nothing. Probably just a wonky run, but hmm... Was just going to post this, anyone have access and care to elaborate. Word is S VA and N NC get smoked, DC a 2" fringe job. That makes me feel a little better as it looks like the heaviest axis is west of the major Mid Atlantic cities up through central MD in to PA on the 12z runs today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Finally good news for Carolinas and Georgia! Well not really. We need to see the same look on the 12z today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Ugh, looks like a nasty ice storm outside of the mountains in NC. I would rather it just come north and give us rain than that Zr mess (mainly areas North and west of GSO that is)It's jons fault for throwing out the ole Dec 2002 analog yesterday. Jinx lol.Canadian ens further south of its op Gonna get ice triad. Best case would be be some quick front end snow and mostly sleet less than .30 frzng rain with a inch of wrap around snow on backside. .30 is all I want to see frzng rn after that want no part of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Was just going to post this, anyone have access and care to elaborate. Word is S VA and N NC get smoked, DC a 2" fringe job. That makes me feel a little better as it looks like the heaviest axis is west of the major Mid Atlantic cities up through central MD in to PA on the 12z runs today. Triad to RDU gets 11-12", Northern boarder counties of triad get 17", CTL gets 5", DC gets 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 0z ECMWF Parallell That would be really nice! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Was just going to post this, anyone have access and care to elaborate. Word is S VA and N NC get smoked, DC a 2" fringe job. That makes me feel a little better as it looks like the heaviest axis is west of the major Mid Atlantic cities up through central MD in to PA on the 12z runs today. Here is a good view: 12" - Triad, 11" - RDU, crushes Richmond, etc. EDIT: I deleted the image to comply with WeatherBell's TOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 0z ECMWF ParallellYea id take my inch or two here in upstate and call it a win! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Wow, crazy difference with the GFS and the Euro para. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Hey guys, a heads up. You will get in trouble if you keep posting those WxBell Euro maps. Do not want them to quit offering them.....All the other WxBell stuff is OK, just not the detailed Euro stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The Euro parallel ? When we start to use bizarre models, the more desperate we are!? What is the Euro parallel? I've heard of GFS parallel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The Euro parallel ? When we start to use bizarre models, the more desperate we are!? What is the Euro parallel? I've heard of GFS parallel The Euro Parallel has a better verification score than the regular Euro, so I wouldn't discount it necessarily. We'll see, though. I deleted the map, by the way. Wasn't thinking when I posted it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Hey guys, a heads up. You will get in trouble if you keep posting those WxBell Euro maps. Do not want them to quit offering them.....All the other WxBell stuff is OK, just not the detailed Euro stuff. Yep, appreciate the map James but be advised, all WX bell EC maps are no goes form here on out. Randy posted in the MA thread last night stating such. If one makes its way out in the public domain, just link it instead of posting the graphic. Therefore we eliminate the grey area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The Euro Parallel has a better verification score than the regular Euro, so I wouldn't discount it necessarily. We'll see, though. I deleted the map, by the way. Wasn't thinking when I posted it. These are x-perimentals due for release later on after their trials. his particular one in March. It should be better, but still not ready for prime time so take with a grain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Yep, appreciate the map James but be advised, all WX bell EC maps are no goes form here on out. Randy posted in the MA thread last night stating such. If one makes its way out in the public domain, just link it instead of posting the graphic. Therefore we eliminate the grey area. Yep. Generally Maue will post snowfall maps of his models anyway, so if all else fails just watch twitter and he'll post them 9 times out of 10 to generate subscribers, so it's a win-win really. Describing the images via text goes a long way as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 These are x-perimentals due for release later on after their trials. his particular one in March. It should be better, but still not ready for prime time so take with a grain. No doubt, but still. We'll see if the 12z Euro makes any shifts. The Euro did make a good couple hundred mile SE jog with the precip shield in yesterday's runs (Pittsburgh went from 36" to 2"), so there could be something to it, but we'll have to wait and see. For now, it's a lone outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The Euro will be upgraded in March officially, the Parallel is that upgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The 12z Para isn't even that different from the 12z** Euro Op wrt the track, it just essentially doesn't amp up so close to the delmarva area and instead, waits until its a bit out to sea to do so. That in turn generates heavy back end snow for the Piedmont/Triangle area of NC with 0.7" liquid falling in 6 hours as the storm is off the coast. Don't discount that scenario, but it would be best-case scenario without a doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Yep, appreciate the map James but be advised, all WX bell EC maps are no goes form here on out. Randy posted in the MA thread last night stating such. If one makes its way out in the public domain, just link it instead of posting the graphic. Therefore we eliminate the grey area. So anything from WxBell is ok EXCEPT for EURO maps correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The Euro will be upgraded in March officially, the Parallel is that upgrade. Let's just pretend it's already march then.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 So anything from WxBell is ok EXCEPT for EURO maps correct? In moderation with credit to his website. Euro WXBell maps are a no go as a whole.. if he adds a new model and has a specific text with it to not share it, don't. That happened with the experimental longer range UKMET last year. Now it's gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 So anything from WxBell is ok EXCEPT for EURO maps correct? Just to clear this up, Euro 0.5 (WMO-essential) is fine (the 24 hour interval maps that are found on most model sites)...any shorter interval maps or mesoscale data (snow, etc) is not ok. From WxBell: Note: Any maps, images or charts from ECMWF (License) may never be posted or re-distributed (except for WMO-Essential). All other maps, images and charts from other models may be shared in moderation under the following conditions: The images may not be used for any commercial (revenue generating) purpose including, but not limited to, ad-supported websites or private consulting. Any images must be attributed to WeatherBell Analytics. If confused, ask Ryan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I think the PARA is the outlier here and will come North on the next run. How far north will make a big difference to areas North of CLT and West of RDU but still think some northern areas of NC (outside the mtns) will end up with a mix and ice storm for the most part. To our friends south of CLT I am afraid this one is not for you, our Tenn friends should do well especially in the western part of the state but there is still time for some track adjustments and I would stick with the ensembles here on out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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