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Jan 22-23 East Coast Storm Discussion


Wow

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Still lots of spread in the models as of 6z. :) lets see what 12z does! 

 

I think it's going to have to be the furthest track to the south to do CLT/ southern piedmont any good for winter precip.  All the inland tracks from the other models are no bueno imo.  Hopefully the 12Z runs will trend toward the UKMET. That's the only model with a current track that works I think.

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I think the overall setup look to be more of a miller a/b hybrid. Not feeling a true miller A here unless we see some dramatic trends south soon. I like the HP configuration. So i could see the sfc temps trend down some from here. Aloft it looks like a mixed bag at this point (snow/sleet/zr/rain) over areas outside of the mtns. Northern foothills/far NW piedmont usually do well in this type of scenario snow wise. 

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I am making reservations at a hotel for friday night and saturday. I am leaning toward ice storm.

This one is tough! The cold air seems borderline, need a little work for us to score anything other than rain, as it looks now. NC mtns look to win big and I may have to take a drive up Sat, if we don't get anything! Things we need to pull for: stronger high/wedge, and continued S trends! Will be another unproductive work week!
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I think the overall setup look to be more of a miller a/b hybrid. Not feeling a true miller A here unless we see some dramatic trends south soon. I like the HP configuration. So i could see the sfc temps trend down some from here. Aloft it looks like a mixed bag at this point (snow/sleet/zr/rain) over areas outside of the mtns. Northern foothills/far NW piedmont usually do well in this type of scenario snow wise.

I may be remembering wrong, but growing up our area of Catawba County used to do pretty good with these setups as opposed to just 20 miles south. Next two days of model runs will be interesting.

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I think the overall setup look to be more of a miller a/b hybrid. Not feeling a true miller A here unless we see some dramatic trends south soon. I like the HP configuration. So i could see the sfc temps trend down some from here. Aloft it looks like a mixed bag at this point (snow/sleet/zr/rain) over areas outside of the mtns. Northern foothills/far NW piedmont usually do well in this type of scenario snow wise. 

 

It's unique that's for sure.  The energy comes from Northern California, through the mid-west dips to Louisiana, than up into central GA, then due east to the coast.  Very odd track, but yes Miller A does not seem to fit to me either.  It doesn't look like any guidance but the UKIE wants to put this along the gulf coast. 

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Of course down here in GA we get scraps- unless the ULL goes a lot more south. Not completely impossible since the short wave that turns into our system will not enter the RAOB grid until late Tuesday- but the Euro ensembles are all clustered well north of here with the ULL, so I have not much hope we will get more than a dusting with the wrap-around. I will have the opportunity to take a short jaunt north Fri into early Sat, but there are not an inconsequential # of solutions where even the north GA mountains get only a few inches. Will probably have to watch from afar while someone gets buried, the area west of DC looks like ground zero right now....

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NAM looks good at the end of it's run, heading in a good direction!

Mackerel in your years of watching storms do you think this area has a chance for a major ice storm in the upstate? With a slow trend and a stinger CAD?

I've seen these storms a few times, mtns look like a lock for big snow, just have to watch the wedge as we get closer! Keep an eye on modeled position and strength on each run and look for the damming signature to show on the model runs also! It's really just a watch and wait! Things are trending good!
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