mitchnick Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Cobb for DCA 6z run was 1.92 total QPF IAD was 1.89 6z run of the gfs is perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 not sure if anyone gave you qpf, but Euro had about 1.2" for Winchester but the county as it a whole ranged from 0.8 to 1.4 NW to SE Yes. The Euro has the cutoff through Frederick County VA basically. We usually do better with ratios overall anyways. So it usually averages out on snow depth. Also we have no way of knowing where the heavy banding sets up. It usually runs a line sw to ne from like Front Royal to Westminster. Or a littel east of there. The 6Z GFS seems to have a faster progression with the storm overall. Only 24 hours of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Yes. The Euro has the cutoff through Frederick County VA basically. We usually do better with ratios overall anyways. So it usually averages out on snow depth. Also we have no way of knowing where the heavy banding sets up. It usually runs a line sw to ne from like Front Royal to Westminster. Or a littel east of there. The 6Z GFS seems to have a faster progression with the storm overall. Only 24 hours of snow Euro was pretty sharp across the board, Hagerstown area less than 1", Wes with well over 2" I don't think any should focus on those details, yeah, pay attention to the QPF but know it will change every run. Things should become more focused as we get closer. I think for now, everyone should just focus on the fact that the storm is still there, and the 500 levels are looking fantastic. Let the other details work themselves out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Everyone in far N and W burbs should hopefully know by now that there is a secondary precip max and secondary banding, and no matter what the models say, they will do better than further east... often that superband that sets up in the same place is due to a combination of geographic assistance and the higher ratios you often see at the back edge of the ccb. When I have done qpf meltdowns I usually found that it wasn't from getting as much or more qpf but from getting just enough mixed with crazy high ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Welcome back! I hope all is well. We've seen pretty amazing consistently the last few days, anything we should be watching closely as potential wrenches to a big storm? Good to be back. Hope you are well. I would say this has all the making of a major system. Track and timing of energy transfer will be huge. The waters are a bit warmer and a track further west could bring that warmer belt of air in and cause mixing issues. Also...I think we'll see better confidence once each piece of energy makes it into the conus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Models will pickup on that and there's no sign of that on most models save an occasional gfs run. I know but it's day 4/5 at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 How does it compare to its prior run? It's a classic signature for a significant MA snowstorm and it closes off the 500 low again with a great track. 994 low just NE of OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Latest SREF at its limit at 500mb...looks consistent with other models. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=087ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_087_500_vort_ht.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160118+09+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Man. The 500 map on the 6Z GEFS is just ridiculous for the next 10 days. We get clobbered twice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Models will pickup on that and there's no sign of that on most models save an occasional gfs run. Well remember some ensemble members are west of the mean track...the 0z para gfs was tucked into Cheaseapeake and so too was the Navgem but of course take that with a grain of salt...one thing that cannot be denied water temps 43-49 right at the coast and 70 miles out 60-75 dammed if you do dammed if you dont to get the big one it is a needed ingredient it is tread lighly worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Two key points with the higher water temps. 1). Warmer water from mild fall and winter can mean more energy. Think about the strong baroclinic zone that would set up with the low bombing after the phase. Pretty rapid deepening, explosive development. 2) As with all strong coastal systems, unfortunately a small 50-100 mile track shift could have major implications on who gets major snow and who sees mixing. All the right ingredients are in place....healthy ridge out west, great 500 pattern, blocking high, antecedent cold airmass, 50/50 low etc. Looks great with each run but how the warmer ocean content plays in will be crucial I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 0z para gfs was not as sweet. Trough goes negative a little early and tucks the low up the bay. The middle if the storm would be heavy rain for most of us before flipping back to snow. The solution is on its own right now so not worth reading too much into it. Buy like with the euro going more SE last night, these are things to watch for irt trends.IMO what were seeing now is noise for a day 4 threat. A 50 mile shift in slp track might be huge for our ground truth buys it's a minor shift for a storm this far out. Models are remarkably fixed on the general solution and were just seeing all the possible permutations within that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Guys, I do not believe the qpf output whatsoever on a bombing system that tracks perfectly over hatteras and northeast from there. I almost guarantee as the event draws near you see an uptick in qpf production on the westside of the storm. Just my two cents. The 06z GPS shows a bit more South and West for total accumulation. The numbers in DC-BWI metro area epic. By the end of the storm even NCNC and SCVA have 8" - 11". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I haven't seen the 00Z GFS para, but how "bad" is it, relatively? It seems to have been closer to the coast and a bit warmer overall I think for most of it's runs. Though yesterday's 18Z para was nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Totally qualitative post, but it seems like the para GFS has tended to be a step more amped/suppressed than the current OP GFS this winter. I made a similar comment a week ago that the para seems to throw out more extreme solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 IMO what were seeing now is noise for a day 4 threat. A 50 mile shift in slp track might be huge for our ground truth buys it's a minor shift for a storm this far out. Models are remarkably fixed on the general solution and were just seeing all the possible permutations within that Oh, I totally agree. Wobbles are going to happen all week. Just something to keep an eye on because personally I would think too close of a track is probably a much bigger concern than something too far SE. Big bombing storms always have tricks up their sleeve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I haven't seen the 00Z GFS para, but how "bad" is it, relatively? It seems to have been closer to the coast and a bit warmer overall I think for most of it's runs. Though yesterday's 18Z para was nice. It went into E central VA and across the mouth of the bay. Not that much of a shift but too far west for the cities to stay all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Oh, I totally agree. Wobbles are going to happen all week. Just something to keep an eye on because personally I would think too close of a track is probably a much bigger concern than something too far SE. Big bombing storms always have tricks up their sleeve. my pragmatism always has me looking for the fail. In this case Im having a hard time deciding which is the bigger threat suppressed or over amped. That probably means we're in a good spot. I could see how either can happen but both seem less likely. I guess I would lean suppressed since even a wound up inland track still gives a front end and back end thump in the cities while there are a few members that show how the phase could miss and the stj gets squashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Haven't seen a lot of wind talk, but the 6z GFS has 60mph winds at 925mb. At least suggests that we could gust pretty well on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 06z Para GFS looks improved from the 00z Para GFS - a little more south with the Low. Still close but much improved so far with temps - out to 114 hours. And still very, very, very wet. Snow starts at Hour 99. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 06z Para GFS looks improved from the 00z Para GFS - a little more south with the Low. Still close but much improved so far - out to 114 hours. And still very, very, very wet. It's a mauling so far...over 2" of QPF through 3z Saturday. It's better than 00z so far like you said...850s get close but so far, stay east 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 For posterity...to erase the 0z para thoughts... 1-2' of snow has already fallen. What a beaut in the upper levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The 00z OP was pretty wrapped up, the Par 00z GFS runs on 00z data, so I imagine when the 6z Para comes out it will shift E like the 6z OP did... This is posted just for fun, but we're getting close to NAM range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 IMO what were seeing now is noise for a day 4 threat. A 50 mile shift in slp track might be huge for our ground truth buys it's a minor shift for a storm this far out. Models are remarkably fixed on the general solution and were just seeing all the possible permutations within that Oh, I totally agree. Wobbles are going to happen all week. Just something to keep an eye on because personally I would think too close of a track is probably a much bigger concern than something too far SE. Big bombing storms always have tricks up their sleeve. We could still see some sort of wholesale shift...I wouldn't say it is likely, but 100 hours out isn't insignificant.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Snow moves out at Hour 138/141 it looks like, on 06z Para GFS. Just a killer run... huge amounts of snow. DC never changes - all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Good god dudes. I'm saving all this stuff in a folder. This is crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 Anyone see the 0z Para Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Alright, so literally all models own us right now. Euro most SE it appears and GFS furthest North? So if we take middle road we get smoked. When do we say this is actually going to happen? I mean it appears we could be talking how many feet instead of inches this go around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Anyone see the 0z Para Euro? I haven't been able to see the last 2 runs. Panels aren't populating on wxbell even though the run shows as there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I haven't been able to see the last 2 runs. Panels aren't populating on wxbell even though the run shows as there. where on wxbell can that be found? I looked this morning and its not easily marked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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