Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    16,987
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Dankles
    Newest Member
    Dankles
    Joined

January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #1 - No Banter


Deck Pic

Recommended Posts

Is our sick antecedent pattern going to pay off?  Classic Archimbault event.  But will it deliver.

 

Models are pretty much locked into a big event.  Perhaps even a top 20 event for the DC area airports. Wide right seems unlikely.  The big question is whether some of us will mix or flip.  Is this an area wide monster or a 20" event for Winchester and a 6" event for DCA?  Will surface temps cooperate on Friday or will we be flirting with 32?  Do we want a hugger so we get a chance at better wraparound or a more progressive track?  

 

Looking forward to the chase and hopefully the payoff.  I have a feeling 12:45 pm is going to be a VERY popular time for a break or lunch this week.  

 

As mentioned in the title.  No banter.  We can keep it fun, but before you click post, make sure your post contributes some value.  If it is merely banter.  Use the banter thread.  

 

:o

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 891
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Is our sick antecedent pattern going to pay off? Classic Archimbault event. But will it deliver.

Models are pretty much locked into a big event. Perhaps even a top 20 event for the DC area airports. Wide right seems unlikely. The big question is whether some of us will mix or flip. Is this an area wide monster or a 20" event for Winchester and a 6" event for DCA? Will surface temps cooperate on Friday or will we be flirting with 32? Do we want a hugger so we get a chance at better wraparound or a more progressive track?

Looking forward to the chase and hopefully the payoff. I have a feeling 12:45 pm is going to be a VERY popular time for a break or lunch this week.

As mentioned in the title. No banter. We can keep it fun, but before you click post, make sure your post contributes some value. If it is merely banter. Use the banter thread.

:o

I think we want the solution that produces the most precip. Personally I'd like to see a good blob of precip while the low is west of the apps, a lull during transfer and then a smash from the coastal. I think that's actually possible.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think we want the solution that produces the most precip. Personally I'd like to see a good blob of precip while the low is west of the apps, a lull during transfer and then a smash from the coastal. I think that's actually possible.

 

Agreed...if we can a wave of QPF like we saw with the 12z Euro or 18z GFS, I think we are in business, and we may not even have to worry about temperature profiles in that instance, but either way, better to have QPF to waste in case it gets a little warmer than we want it to be.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Agreed...if we can a wave of QPF like we saw with the 12z Euro or 18z GFS, I think we are in business, and we may not even have to worry about temperature profiles in that instance, but either way, better to have QPF to waste in case it gets a little warmer than we want it to be.

 

If we're in the 25-28 range here in immediate DC metro, we won't have to worry about sun angle or day time stickage....Even if we creep toward 31-32, moderate snow will stick fine even to primary roads in late January...I don't see a 2/5/10 scenario where we burn QPF at 34-35...We should be freezing or below at onset....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have an almost phobic fear of a suppressed storm. The euro solution would erase that issue and it also seems to have a more expansive precip shield.

 

My biggest fear (if there is any) is a failure to phase that causes the storm to be weak and skirt by the area.

 

But I feel as good about our chances as I possibly can at this range.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Like Matt said, we're tightening up and getting strict as a threat approaches.    Treat this as a local storm mode thread.

 

-No banter

-No useless questions or comments

-If it doesn't add value, don't post it.

 

If you see your posts disappearing, take a hint.  If, after the third time you don't get the hint, its up to the moderators what happens to you.  There's a banter thread for banter.   Good luck!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Saw this on Twitter earlier - the shortwave that will become our potential storm

https://twitter.com/anthonywx/status/688798978515832834

 

Kind of a good window in to see how far out it is still and all of the other various players on the map. Despite the model agreement it's still clear that we're going to need things to really go our way. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Don't shoot me. I just wanted to compare the God-awful SREF's to the Euro. I'm pretty shocked and encouraged actually. The top link is the 87 hrs. 500mb map off this evenings 21z SREF which takes you to 12z Thursday. The bottom link is the Day 4 Euro 500mb from 12z today which also takes you to 12z Thursday. I really expected a big difference. Even when you keep in mind that the SREF is a mean so you get a smoothed look, darn they look close all things considered.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=087ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F21%2Fsref_namer_087_500_vort_ht.gif&model=sref&area=namer&param=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160117+21+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h96&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Saw this on Twitter earlier - the shortwave that will become our potential storm

https://twitter.com/anthonywx/status/688798978515832834

 

Kind of a good window in to see how far out it is still and all of the other various players on the map. Despite the model agreement it's still clear that we're going to need things to really go our way. 

Went to college with Anthony.  He's a darn good met and worth following on Twitter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z Euro Para is a mauling for I-81 (30") and a stripe from Garret County into central PA (3'). 12"-18" for the cities due to mixing issues. Primary tracks to TN/KY border before transferring. Sub 990 over Hampton Roads.

2.1" QPF for DC.

ETA: closes off 500 low but tracks it north of EPS in central/southern VA. Better solution would be tracking that a bit more south like the EPS.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z Euro Para is a mauling for I-81 (30") and a stripe from Garret County into central PA (3'). 12"-15" for the cities due to mixing issues. Primary tracks into southern TN/KY border before transferring. Sub 990 over Hampton Roads.

2.1" QPF for DC.

That's still much better result than current 12z gfs, which was 8-10", more or less, for DCA/BWI.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...