N. OF PIKE Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Guys im not bashing this storm for us at all Im simply at awe at the dynamics over VA....well see come tomorrow and ill make my decision then. After i chased my first storm i was hooked it is so fun If models hold, you should look to get elevation, there is 5 stand deviation 850 inflow that hammers the east slope of Central APPS in N VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 16" is pedestrian HECS stuff, He is chasing 96 seriously there is nothing wrong with that mountain climbers always look for something bigger to climb, etc. But it's premature to assume where the jackpot will be. Fascinating....he is leaving Philly to chase? Lol. I am coming to philly to chase! Arrive in center city Thursday night. Wouldn't surprise me for Philly area to be the jackpot if this think edges just a bit north. Closing off and crawling off the south jersey coast? How does Philly not get 18+ and maybe ++ with that set up, regardless of what model qpf says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fishmn Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Guys im not bashing this storm for us at all Im simply at awe at the dynamics over VA....well see come tomorrow and ill make my decision then. After i chased my first storm i was hooked it is so fun I am glad the jackpot is over the MA right now. I doubt it stays there. BTW Kocin invoked 1996, 2003, 2010 in his mid day report. Called the setup classic textbook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 People that use these snowfall maps as guidance are just not smart. Especially when 1) your still 2+ days out and 2) given the dynamics that might exist you cannot take the models verbatim at where the "jackpots will be". Once you get 24 hours out and you can use the meso models then you can get a general idea what areas might be in the best position to cash in on the dynamics. The outcomes generally never mirror the models in regards to snowfall totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I like my Jackpot chances in RDG... I'm completely straddled! I have hits southwest, southeast and due west right now on the ECM, GFS and CMC. Should be interesting to see the Hi Res especially once the energy hits the west coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Biggest Euro run of the millenium about to start rolling..... Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I mean there is an apparent downward trend on liquid up here in the Lehigh valley, so that's something to watch. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Storm is officially on shore in CA now per radar. C'mon EURO!!! SEPA/DE jackpot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I mean there is an apparent downward trend on liquid up here in the Lehigh valley, so that's something to watch. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Like most storms with this type of setup somebody north of "the action" is going to get screwed aka 2009/10, don't think the LV has any shot at smoking cirrus this go around but some folks on the northern edge are not going to be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Biggest Euro run of the millenium about to start rolling..... Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Not Liking the shift with the GEFS. Suppression has been a concern. Still several days out and typically you like to see this look at this point. Many a storm has corrected north, but still.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Storm is officially on shore in CA now per radar. C'mon EURO!!! SEPA/DE jackpot! Between 0z and 12z tomorrow the last vort piece of the puzzle is on the field not there yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Not Liking the shift with the GEFS. Suppression has been a concern. Still several days out and typically you like to see this look at this point. Many a storm has corrected north, but still....Not sure what to think until 12z suite finishes. Most local news outlets really harping on a change to plain rain here. That would mean a farther N and W track. They have hardly even mentioned suppression. Been saying that as the energy comes ashore there will be big shifts. Around 12z tomorrow guidance should really start to converge on a solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Anyone have wind data, haven't seen anything remarkable wind wise in a while...from a previous storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 People freaking out too early.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 I know its a peace of mind thing, but being in the jackpot zone 3+ days out is still not a lock, at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Euro already closed off at 48 hours (7am Thurs) over Kansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 People freaking out too early.... No freaking out here, just don't like to see a GEFS mean having me under a foot and even under 10". As I said, long way to go and I don't see on the models anything that would point to massive suppression. A system like this you would think would have a CCB up and down I95 at least from NYC south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 No freaking out here, just don't like to see a GEFS mean having me under a foot and even under 10". As I said, long way to go and I don't see on the models anything that would point to massive suppression. A system like this you would think would have a CCB up and down I95 at least from NYC south stop paying attention to qpf maps and look at the mid levels. still looks great for your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Closed upper low opens again by 72 hours (7am Fri) on the 12z Euro. Slp emerging near SC. Looks decent thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Serious forum lag....at 96 huge ULL closed off, both ULL and slp considerably farther South than GFS. Slp near OBX. Could just be slower moving NE but not sure. The ULL is pretty far South tho on SC/NC border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 MA and NE threads saying Euro way south.......not good. But had to expect one run would everybody on edge for a while. Concerning though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Mayday Mayday Mayday.... the Battleship is floating again... doesn't look good for the far NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I don't think we will know until the 12z runs tomorrow. By then, either the Euro will trend back, or a bad trend towards the Euro will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 120 the slp heads NNE down to 984 due East of Dover, maybe 100-150 miles or so off coast. Low is captured. Based on ull and slp position looks like we would be getting clobbered by the cbb...dont have precip maps yet. Relax people, its just a slower solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Euro actually looks like it is slowly coming in line with the GFS. Decent finish after what appeared to be a shaky start this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 People probably go on meds from these damn model runs. Give it another day...at least. Things will sync in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The thing that conerns me is the OP Euro seems to be moving in the direction of the Euro para. Yes people have been telling me not to be concerned with it, but the para is scoring well) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Euro is odd how there is a complete capture of the surface low at 120 yet the entire closed low/slp are progressive and race, I mean race, ENE thereafter. Euro is notoriously a solid model but that scenario seems a bit suspect to me. Are these the beginning signs of a much more progressive system? GEFS doesnt even have a capture and also trucks NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 To use a cooking analogy all the ingredients are in the pot, but it won't taste good until you let it cook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Eric Horst reporting EURO = a near non event for PA....some raw numbers 9" PHL to 2" PTW and nada for ABE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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