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January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2


WinterWxLuvr

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I guess it doesn't have to snow at all. We could see this epic block break down, reform, and break down again over the next six weeks and get nothing.

Even tho the ops show us 'every solution possible' they do offer some outs without much snow. So it's definitely on the table. I'd still probably lean against a shutout or near shutout.
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Even tho the ops show us 'every solution possible' they do offer some outs without much snow. So it's definitely on the table. I'd still probably lean against a shutout or near shutout.

Has there been any near miss events with such strong blocking during moderate+ nino?

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Has there been any near miss events with such strong blocking during moderate+ nino?

Absolutely. I don't have specific storms in mind but the MA has wasted far more so called great patterns than produced. If the general look we're seeing now persists through the month then odds greatly increase that something happens.

A single week of a good upper air pattern is low probability. Euro ens looked great right through d15 at least.

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its amazing how we cant break the 10 day wall. I cant imagine the next big storm threat being all the way to January 23rd but it makes sense climatology wise i guess

There's some decent storms mixed in by d8-10 but there are far more nothings. Pretty noisy and I'm probably expecting too much. I would like to see at least half the members show something by 0z Monday.

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Absolutely. I don't have specific storms in mind but the MA has wasted far more so called great patterns than produced. If the general look we're seeing now persists through the month then odds greatly increase that something happens.

A single week of a good upper air pattern is low probability. Euro ens looked great right through d15 at least.

Well that's all we can hope for. If it doesn't happen then we have another set of data to draw from when analyzing the weather patterns and know that a great pattern doesn't always require a snow shovel.

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Absolutely. I don't have specific storms in mind but the MA has wasted far more so called great patterns than produced. If the general look we're seeing now persists through the month then odds greatly increase that something happens.

A single week of a good upper air pattern is low probability. Euro ens looked great right through d15 at least.

I should have asked if there has been any seasons like that where we came up empty in the end?

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I should have asked if there has been any seasons like that where we came up empty in the end?

72-73 and 97-98 come to mind. Cpc has been showing plenty of 98 analogs lately. Also late Jan 83 which didn't do anything.

Don't over think right now. Just let it ride until Monday and see where we stand. Snow rarely has clarity or consensus until inside of 6 days or so.

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Absolutely. I don't have specific storms in mind but the MA has wasted far more so called great patterns than produced. If the general look we're seeing now persists through the month then odds greatly increase that something happens.

A single week of a good upper air pattern is low probability. Euro ens looked great right through d15 at least.

Just looking at the H5 on the EPS there are 3 clear windows for a big storm, d8-10, 12-13, and its reloading another one at 15

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New Euro monthlies have a giant +PNA for Feb and Mar. Mar actually looks better in theory. Feb has +NAO, but more neutral or - for Mar. Both months look about normal tempwise. Precip axis offshore in Feb.. wet Mar/Apr. Actually pretty dry on the West Coast in Feb but Mar is wet out there too.

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Just looking at the H5 on the EPS there are 3 clear windows for a big storm, d8-10, 12-13, and its reloading another one at 15

Gefs showed 3 distinct pac waves during that period as well. And it looks like it would continue after on both the gefs/eps. I've been pretty easy going this winter. I want a big storm this year and I'm really patient. We have some good pieces coming together. Maybe with some staying power too.

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A shut out would change everything we have come to think about a good pattern. Up until now if we say -AO, -NAO, +PNA no one thinks shut out or near shut out is even possible.

Not trying to be harsh, but by "we" you mean "you" right? Of course it's possible. It's happened multiple times before. A good example is the first part of March 2005. 

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Not trying to be harsh, but by "we" you mean "you" right? Of course it's possible. It's happened multiple times before. A good example is the first part of March 2005.

Not harsh. Yes me I am probably the only one who doesn't think shut out or near shut out with those indices. I will add it to my list of things I now consider.

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I admit that I did not think this winter would produce something spectacular but the next two weeks will feature either big cold or big snow. I dont think both but look at the analogs and throw out 97/98 not because I want to but by now in 97/98 we had some well poitioned lows to our se but no cold air. So far this season the lows have been in the great lakes so I discount 97/98.

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