January Mid/long Range Winter Discussion

[Cold Rain]

What we know is people want to take the pattern depiction verbatim but they want to throw out the surface depiction. It seems pretty silly to me.

Your implication with this statement is that we should throw out the pattern depiction and take the surface features verbatim. I'm not saying you're wrong to question a 10 day pattern change or storm threat, but that implication makes entirely no sense.

[DixieBlizzard]

There is a big segment of amwx posters who toss models that don't show what they want so they come up with excuses and reasons that the model is wrong. Most of those reasons and excuses are not based in science or reality. That is a weenie and there are plenty around. I guess it amazes me that someone can latch on to a setup but say oh no the model depiction of the surface is not right but the upper levels are. Or say it's the 18z toss it unless it shows snow.

 

In reality, I'd say most of us here are weather "weenies" or we wouldn't be posting on a weather message forum. In this format, where the lay person is involved in depicting weather models (along with some pros who enjoy the banter), you will have a segment that will extrapolate what they wish would happen and then you have the realists who understand the science behind the madness. Maybe a pro-only forum is the right format for some but I have learned more from the pros, whether hobbyist or Mets, correcting the weenies than I would have by just reading what HM and people at a higher level of understanding posts. Does that make sense?

 

that being said, I am excited about how the pattern has evolved from being nearly 70 degrees every day in December to there being actual, favorable setups in the mid range. One damn good snowstorm would whet my appetite and that could evolve in this setup whether its January, February or March. If that makes me a weenie, then so be it.

[Poimen]

We've been ten days away for about a week now

Untrue. The predicted -NAO is a new players in the medium range guidance.

[burgertime]

Could the models be correct with their depictions? Sure. We're kind of in an abnormal environment with the raging Nino and both years the Nino was this strong you saw different setups (from what has been said about them anyways). With a big cutter and blocking being depicted you usually see changes after the cutter, so personally, I'm waiting for this weekend so that system can clear out and then see what happens. I still am worried that the models are relaxing the pattern fast given the setup. I figured by this time you would start seeing the cold entrenched on the models for a longer period of time....but I have a hard time buying the surface maps as well with all the indices in our favor...but anything is possible. 

[packbacker]

For day 8-9 EPS is still having run to to changes for how the blocking develops and the 50/50. Still don't like 17/18th outside of the mountains, millerb is favored and transfer over us to just north of us. I agree with RaleighWx's tweet that things look better after Jan 20th.

[Brick Tamland]

Allan Huffman ‏@RaleighWx 2h2 hours ago

The Greenland Block will help the weather pattern become ripe for a major storm or two by late next weekend into the following week.

 

Allan Huffman ‏@RaleighWx 2h2 hours ago

Of course, that doesn't mean a southeast winter storm per se. Still need good timing. I think best threat for SE is 1/19-1/23 time frame.

 

Allan Huffman ‏@RaleighWx 2h2 hours ago

Still potential next weekend, but I think potential better further north and west. We shall see. Tricky pattern for sure ahead.

[franklin NCwx]

For day 8-9 EPS is still having run to to changes for how the blocking develops and the 50/50. Still don't like 17/18th outside of the mountains, millerb is favored and transfer over us to just north of us. I agree with RaleighWx's tweet that things look better after Jan 20th.

a lot depends on this weekends cutter. I still favor a miller a track which is what the ensembles are hinting at.

[packbacker]

a lot depends on this weekends cutter. I still favor a miller a track which is what the ensembles are hinting at.

To get a Miller A the low over HB will have to completely be moved east over ME or just east. Or we get a southern slider (no phasing). Otherwise millerb.

[Met1985]

So.... We are still ten days away from where we want to be. That will be the story of this winter. All of the comments how the models are clueless and if we got that setup the model depiction is wrong are really bad. It's a computer program. I think the models have a better grasp on what the weather will be like than a wish casting weenie. JMO.

One thing I cannot grasp are the way the teleconnections look and what the models are showing. You have to realize the gfs has been horrible with this pattern change. Even the euro is having a tough time. This is uncharted territory like a lot have been saying. To me if this pattern does not produce with all the blocking then we are cursed this winter and nothing will save us.

[franklin NCwx]

To get a Miller A the low over HB will have to completely be moved east over ME or just east. Or we get a southern slider (no phasing). Otherwise millerb.

or the northern stream is quicker and doesn't allow the southern wave to amplify too early. These players that will help or hurt us are still in the Pacific. As usual an ensemble blend is the best route to take.

[BristowWx]

One thing I cannot grasp are the way the teleconnections look and what the models are showing. You have to realize the gfs has been horrible with this pattern change. Even the euro is having a tough time. This is uncharted territory like a lot have been saying. To me if this pattern does not produce with all the blocking then we are cursed this winter and nothing will save us.

I agree.  just like the epic warm Dec that we may never see again this is an epic block that if true we may never see again.  so if none of us cash in there is something bigger than all of us and not from this world at play.

[tnweathernut]

One thing I cannot grasp are the way the teleconnections look and what the models are showing. You have to realize the gfs has been horrible with this pattern change. Even the euro is having a tough time. This is uncharted territory like a lot have been saying. To me if this pattern does not produce with all the blocking then we are cursed this winter and nothing will save us.

Or perhaps the models have a pretty good grasp on the influences of a monster nino?  That is one possibility.  

 

Another possibility is it usually takes a maturing block time to produce so perhaps many just jumped the gun a week or so too early?

 

Either way, we won't have to wait too long to find out if the anticipated -NAO and super -AO will deliver something to track in the month of January.

[mackerel_sky]

There are different locations for the -NAO / blocking to set up, correct? If it forms, but in the wrong location, we could have the best blocking ever and still not get a snow or ice event?

[Stormcatt]

There are different locations for the -NAO / blocking to set up, correct? If it forms, but in the wrong location, we could have the best blocking ever and still not get a snow or ice event?

Then it would not be the best blocking ever lol

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[franklin NCwx]

6z GEFS was fairly weak and suppressed with next weekends storm.

[DopplerWx]

people need to go ahead and accept the fact that the models will continue to waffle over the next week or two.  we will have individual gfs and euro runs showing big hits only to show nada the next run.  if you live and die by each model run you will drive yourself nuts.  just keep an eye on any threats that show up consistently and take any big dogs with a grain of salt.

[Met1985]

I agree. just like the epic warm Dec that we may never see again this is an epic block that if true we may never see again. so if none of us cash in there is something bigger than all of us and not from this world at play.

Lol I agree. Really this is a remarkable turnaround already from last month but dang if we can not get a storm to show with all this blocking.

[griteater]

There are different locations for the -NAO / blocking to set up, correct? If it forms, but in the wrong location, we could have the best blocking ever and still not get a snow or ice event?

Yes Mack, the devil is in the details as always.  It's always going to be tough to get wintry weather in our area.

 

The pattern beginning next week and going forward is better than average.  I few tweaks here and there, and it could be excellent.

 

Here's the 1-16 day average at 500mb from the 06z GFS Ensemble

 

 

 

 

Compare that to Dec 1 to Jan 5 which was atrocious

[griteater]

Euro Ensemble has trended better with the low underneath the block.  Here are the last 3 00z runs of the Euro Ens for next weekend.  The west based ridging has trended quicker and the PV low is farther southeast in the latest run

[Cold Rain]

Some morning thoughts:
 
1)  The conflating of favorable index values with a SE winter storm pattern is a mistake.  As shown yesterday, you can have all of the favorable index values in the world and still not get a SE winter storm.  Blocking is important.  The configuration, duration, and location of the blocking are the critical elements that make or break whether or not blocking will help us.  But it's only a piece of the puzzle.  A +PNA is important.  But again, the configuration, duration, location, and amplitude are critical.  An active STJ is important.  A 50/50 low is important.  The PV in the right location is important.  How all of these align and work together is important.  If we don't realize all of this, then we're going to mislead ourselves many times over.
 
2)  A SE snowstorm is like threading a needle.  If some of the elements above are present, then perhaps the eye of the needle gets a bit larger.  If they all are present and configured properly, then the eye of the needle is as wide as possible.  But it's still a needle.

 

3)  The pattern has changed.  There is a lot of talking about a pattern 10 days away.  Recall the December torch.  The pattern has changed and is closer to typical SE winter weather.  Most seasonal forecasts called for a warm December.  January was to be the transition month, and February was to be the coldest month with the best chances for snow and ice in the SE.  This looks to me to be very much on track.  We know that December was warm.  We know that January has transitioned.  We don't know about February yet.  But until it goes off the rails, I'm going to believe the seasonal forecasts and seasonal models that show February will be colder with better snow chances, because so far, we're tracking well against the ideas of seasonal forecasts that show this trend.

 

4)  Models will not show an accurate surface depiction 10 days out.  The best we can do is look at upper level features.  If we find that the right elements show up near where we want them to, then we have a shot at something.  There is no lock for a SE winter storm...not even in the near term.  Looking at model progs, there are shortwaves everywhere.  There is no way the placement of surface features even a few days out are going to be accurate, especially this year.  If the upper air features are present that are close to what we need, then we're at least in the conversation for something.  Patience is key.

 

5)  It should be ok to speculate.  IMO, people shouldn't be condemned simply because they're bullish or bearish.  But it should be ok to question their rationale for their ideas.  It's a weather board and most of us are weenies.  Discussion should be welcomed, unless you're just here to troll.  In that case, it's open season.

 

My belief is that the pattern is going to transition into one that allows better chances for winter weather, as we get toward the end of January and into February.  Hopefully, that turns out to be the case.

[FallsLake]

Great points CR!

[SnowNiner]

Euro Ensemble has trended better with the low underneath the block.  Here are the last 3 00z runs of the Euro Ens for next weekend.  The west based ridging has trended quicker and the PV low is farther southeast in the latest run

 

Yes, very nice Grit.  I noticed in the GFS runs, including the wacky 18 Z that seemed to be the case as well.  50/50 low looks a bit more likely in that scenerio later next week.  Hope that holds.  6Z GFS looked darn good, just looked warm for next weekend.  However no high was present in that run.  Lot's to work out for that but holding out hope. 

 

 

Some morning thoughts:

 

1)  The conflating of favorable index values with a SE winter storm pattern is a mistake.  As shown yesterday, you can have all of the favorable index values in the world and still not get a SE winter storm.  Blocking is important.  The configuration, duration, and location of the blocking are the critical elements that make or break whether or not blocking will help us.  But it's only a piece of the puzzle.  A +PNA is important.  But again, the configuration, duration, location, and amplitude are critical.  An active STJ is important.  A 50/50 low is important.  The PV in the right location is important.  How all of these align and work together is important.  If we don't realize all of this, then we're going to mislead ourselves many times over.

 

2)  A SE snowstorm is like threading a needle.  If some of the elements above are present, then perhaps the eye of the needle gets a bit larger.  If they all are present and configured properly, then the eye of the needle is as wide as possible.  But it's still a needle.

 

3)  The pattern has changed.  There is a lot of talking about a pattern 10 days away.  Recall the December torch.  The pattern has changed and is closer to typical SE winter weather.  Most seasonal forecasts called for a warm December.  January was to be the transition month, and February was to be the coldest month with the best chances for snow and ice in the SE.  This looks to me to be very much on track.  We know that December was warm.  We know that January has transitioned.  We don't know about February yet.  But until it goes off the rails, I'm going to believe the seasonal forecasts and seasonal models that show February will be colder with better snow chances, because so far, we're tracking well against the ideas of seasonal forecasts that show this trend.

 

4)  Models will not show an accurate surface depiction 10 days out.  The best we can do is look at upper level features.  If we find that the right elements show up near where we want them to, then we have a shot at something.  There is no lock for a SE winter storm...not even in the near term.  Looking at model progs, there are shortwaves everywhere.  There is no way the placement of surface features even a few days out are going to be accurate, especially this year.  If the upper air features are present that are close to what we need, then we're at least in the conversation for something.  Patience is key.

 

5)  It should be ok to speculate.  IMO, people shouldn't be condemned simply because they're bullish or bearish.  But it should be ok to question their rationale for their ideas.  It's a weather board and most of us are weenies.  Discussion should be welcomed, unless you're just here to troll.  In that case, it's open season.

 

My belief is that the pattern is going to transition into one that allows better chances for winter weather, as we get toward the end of January and into February.  Hopefully, that turns out to be the case.

 

Great summation CR.  I agree.  I can't tell if you're clearly negative or positive though.  Please either include more cliche's or insults so I can understand your position. 

[griteater]

Nice post CR as usual, agree on all points.

[FlatLander48]

Brad P. Just made a blog post and video discussion about next week. Should be a good read.

[packbacker]

Euro Ensemble has trended better with the low underneath the block.  Here are the last 3 00z runs of the Euro Ens for next weekend.  The west based ridging has trended quicker and the PV low is farther southeast in the latest run

 

Was just looking at that, that was a pretty big shift for day 8-9.  Let's see if it holds or flips back at 12z.  The 6z GEFS is trying to shift it further east too.  Just getting it to ME would be huge, would allow some HP to leak underneath it.

[packbacker]

Nice post CR, agree on all points especially your last sentence.  Hopefully we can get a solid two week window where we can sneak in a couple of events, like last winter.

[Brick Tamland]

Nice post CR, agree on all points especially your last sentence.  Hopefully we can get a solid two week window where we can sneak in a couple of events, like last winter.

 

We had some kind of winter event every week in February last year.

[packbacker]

We had some kind of winter event every week in February last year.

Yep, we had a major ice storm, a minor snow event and then a tainted snow storm.  About 6" for the month/winter, I will take a repeat of that in heartbeat.

[Cold Rain]

Thanks, guys.  I'm optimistic for the rest of the winter.  I'll try to include more cliches and insults for SnowNiner, going forward.

[FallsLake]

Yep, we had a major ice storm, a minor snow event and then a tainted snow storm.  About 6" for the month/winter, I will take a repeat of that in heartbeat.

You forgot the snow squall. I really liked that.. I think Brick had a video.