IsentropicLift Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 The printout qpf for Morristown is 1.1" Yes, 1.11" to be exact. That's right on the cusp of where the numbers go up significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 So are you only looking at NYC proper or the average of the area as whole? The further NW you travel, the wetter the models are, the further SE, the drier. The city itself is on the drier side. You know very well what you meant and what the truth was. Not arguing. I was referring to NYC and LI, plus the northern half of NJ. 90% of the posters here live there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Yes, 1.11" to be exact. That's right on the cusp of where the numbers go up significantly. You can't zoom here. Look at the zoomed output on wxbell. I triple checked before I refuted your claim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 As far as the GGEM goes, all I have to go on is a graphic indicating > 50MM. And 50MM is 1.96". So I don't know how anyone could say 2" on the nose unless they have something more detailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 The 1.25-1.5" line goes to the nj/pa border. Most of the area is in the .75-1.25" range. Sent from my VS986 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 You know very well what you meant and what the truth was. Not arguing. I was referring to NYC and LI, plus the northern half of NJ. 90% of the posters here live there. I'm not going there with you. I guess the posters in the LHV and Sullivan/Orange/Rockland Counties don't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 The 12z Euro was in the 0.75"-1.00" range. The models want to develop a secondary wave almost overhead. The quicker developing models are the wetter runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 The 12z Euro also has a big ticket item days 9-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Day 10 on the Euro. 991mb near the mouth of the DE Bay. NYC proper right around 40F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 The set up at day 10 is a west base block with neg nao on the 12z euro only downside is the pna ridge is kid of flat and we are getting pac air which is marginal at best...we can work on that this far out. Plus a low in the lakes is not helping us....this is day 10 so a lot can change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I'm not going there with you. I guess the posters in the LHV and Sullivan/Orange/Rockland Counties don't matter. I just paid my membership, does that count? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 The set up at day 10 is a west base block with neg nao on the 12z euro only downside is the pna ridge is kid of flat and we are getting pac air which is marginal at best...we can work on that this far out. There is a full latitude long wave trough which digs all the way into the Northern Gulf and you have building heights towards Greenland. I'd take my chances with that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 The 12z Euro also has a big ticket item days 9-10. Looks too warm and don't like the lp over great lakes and no HP in southeast Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Looks too warm and don't like the lp over great lakes and no HP in southeast Canada Temps are hurting because you have a low in the lakes like you said and no HP which moved out. You get a strong enough costal it can work...it's far out there so these players will change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Looks too warm and don't like the lp over great lakes and no HP in southeast Canada The low over the lakes in this graphic is in the process of transferring to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Plus our source region is the pac or w/e ridge we get from the PNA...no true -epo like we had the last two winters....yes we have a crazy block with -nao but we are trapping just cold enough air. That's usually how strong el ninos are. That's no bootleg block on the 12z GFS op wow crazy i continue to not be a fan of the look on the ensembles. i want to see a stronger band of negative anomalies south of the block. compare to 58 and 2010. the current models cut off the negative height anomalies around DC and they aren't that negative. we are going to have a pac air problem regardless of everyone doing cartwheels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I just paid my membership, does that count? You'd think we could count more in light of that but I digress, I'm not overly concerned with 1-2" of rain at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 As far as the GGEM goes, all I have to go on is a graphic indicating > 50MM. And 50MM is 1.96". So I don't know how anyone could say 2" on the nose unless they have something more detailed. If you are struggling with amounts on the GGEM because of the big gap between 50 and 75 on this map, you can look on other maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 i'm more interested in whether or not we break records sunday. ewr's is 59, nyc's 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 If you are struggling with amounts on the GGEM because of the big gap between 50 and 75 on this map, you can look on other maps. TD just updated and I would agree that 2.0-2.5" was more accurate than 2.5-3.0" Either way, it's now the wettest model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Details get sorted inside 5 days ( No lock ) but that is not a look you see everyday here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 What are the 850 MB anomalies for the same timeframe? The shading is odd and runs about 1-4 degrees below normal for our area. Celcius... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Details get sorted inside 5 days ( No lock ) but that is not a look you see everyday here . Isn't this verbatim not good enough for the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Details get sorted inside 5 days ( No lock ) but that is not a look you see everyday here . It's an awesome look for a powerful storm. Forky is right though, the block is pushing down so hard it literally cuts off the cold air. Out west we need a stronger +PNA, it's not terrible by any means but pacific air gets involved. 10 days out and plenty of time but it's something to keep in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Isn't this verbatim not good enough for the coast? I don`t know anyone that looks at details 10 days out . You sort that inside 5 days . Does not have to go our way , but that`s big potential . nothing more nothing less . That is not just your garden variety look at 500 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 20 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Didn't expect to reach 50 today, felt warm after the past couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Euro ensembles have the mean off the New england coast for next weeks storm and near the benchmark for the 16-17. Way different than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Euro ensembles have the mean off the New england coast for next weeks storm and near the benchmark for the 16-17. Way different than the op. I dont see any inland runners on the mean. Its no secret the Op Euro has had cutter issues after 144 hours ever since its upgrade so that does not surprise me. Some of our more significant events the last 4 winters the Euro has shown as a cutter beyond Day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 i continue to not be a fan of the look on the ensembles. i want to see a stronger band of negative anomalies south of the block. compare to 58 and 2010. the current models cut off the negative height anomalies around DC and they aren't that negative. we are going to have a pac air problem regardless of everyone doing cartwheelswes agrees https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/01/07/two-week-outlook-abnormally-warm-to-wintry-cold-and-the-slightest-hint-of-snow/ "The pattern is close to being a good one for snow in the D.C. area, but is still lacking an important feature: upper level low pressure around Nova Scotia." "In fact, neither the GFS nor the European model are even hinting at this very important Nova Scotia low pressure during our period in question. Both models do seem to suggest that a storm will dig up into our region from the south. Both the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations are strongly negative, which often helps our chances for getting snow by forcing the storm track to the south. But the extent of the high pressure centered over Greenland is disconcerting. The oval below defines where an upper level low or trough is usually located 24 hours before a major snowstorm. In this scenario, it’s looking a little too red in Nova Scoatia for Washington snow." i know it's DC but we need help too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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