donsutherland1 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Very extreme behavior for the AO to drop from +4.503 on December 22nd to a -4 or -5 range low in early January. The development of the super Kara-centered ridge you've been discussing probably played the biggest role in triggering such a development, should it occur. If so, the Arctic sea ice-atmosphere interaction would most likely have been the trigger for such blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Back above freezing in the park! Here we go!!! Why so exciting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Park up to 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 The development of the super Kara-centered ridge you've been discussing probably played the biggest role in triggering such a development, should it occur. If so, the Arctic sea ice-atmosphere interaction would most likely have been the trigger for such blocking. Yeah, that near to record breaking Kara ridge was able to finally dislodge the polar vortex from the Arctic as seen in the animation below. The timing of the MJO pulse was also favorable to get a blockier high latitude pattern than we had been seeing in recent months according to some composites like Raleighwx. But the extreme swing is such a short period of time is very impressive. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z500_nh_anim.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Park up to 36. Ewr made it to 40 so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 The 12z Euro is even more amplified for the rain storm potential this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Gusts over 40kts possible on Sunday with heavy convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 buckets of rain on 12z euro before freezer opens up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 What a beautiful pattern on the Euro setting up day 5 in the wake of the first low. Dome of cold air locked in over the mid-west with the PV dropping down through the lakes and a massive ridge in the West stretching almost to Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 buckets of rain on 12z euro before freezer opens up It's actually less than an inch for NYC proper, but I think it may be a tick too far amped up now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 What I like about the Euro is that the core of the cold air stays to our West, so we should still be in a good position for storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 no coastal on euro for wednesday but plenty of snow showers / flurries with the cold blast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 no coastal on euro for wednesday but plenty of snow showers / flurries with the cold blast. It redevelops in New England. Plenty of time to watch this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 no coastal on euro for wednesday but plenty of snow showers / flurries with the cold blast. That's not entirely accurate. It comes together late and delivers for far Northern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 It redevelops in New England. Plenty of time to watch this one.how about the Canadian it didn't load for me on ttb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 What a beautiful pattern on the Euro setting up day 5 in the wake of the first low. Dome of cold air locked in over the mid-west with the PV dropping down through the lakes and a massive ridge in the West stretching almost to Alaska. The Cutter helps build a huge ridge over Greenland after 144 hours. Whether that stays or not remains to be seen. Agreed though powerful cold blast for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 how about the Canadian it didn't load for me on ttb Doesn't have a distinguishable low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 The Cutter helps build a huge ridge over Greenland after 144 hours. Whether that stays or not remains to be seen. Agreed though powerful cold blast for next week. Let me also add today's 12z GFS had a much more active look to it than yesterday's run. More southern stream activity. Based on the powerful niño in place that would make sense. We just need a well timed shortwave, -NAO looks solid on some of the data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 how about the Canadian it didn't load for me on ttb Just snow showers and flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Park up to 40/0 When was the last time we had 18% humidity? One more degree and today has a positive departure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Someone say blocking? Jeez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Someone say blocking? Jeez With not much cold air, the southern stream sure looks active though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Euripides Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Is there a chance of a flash freeze after the rain on Sunday as the cold air comes in? Does anyone remember the last true flash freeze for NYC and boroughs? I seem to remember one on New Years Eve a few years back as the parking lots and some side streets became a sheet of ice when the temps dropped fast. This was when I lived in Douglaston, Queens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Is there a chance of a flash freeze after the rain on Sunday as the cold air comes in? Does anyone remember the last true flash freeze for NYC and boroughs? I seem to remember one on New Years Eve a few years back as the parking lots and some side streets became a sheet of ice when the temps dropped fast. This was when I lived in Douglaston, Queens They're pretty rare. March 2005 saw temps in the upper 30s and rain and quickly dropped into the 20s/teens. But usually they are tough to get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Is there a chance of a flash freeze after the rain on Sunday as the cold air comes in? Does anyone remember the last true flash freeze for NYC and boroughs? I seem to remember one on New Years Eve a few years back as the parking lots and some side streets became a sheet of ice when the temps dropped fast. This was when I lived in Douglaston, Queens I remember one several years ago. It was 60 and rain in the morning which turned to 30s and snow in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 With not much cold air, the southern stream sure looks active though. 20 at 240 @ 2m . But that's impressive if it's real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 The 12z EPS mean is not very good for the system around the 13th. Much like the GEFS mean, it's virtually non existent. Regarding the system this weekend, it's quite wet, more so than the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 With not much cold air, the southern stream sure looks active though. It will be hard to get sustained cold air with the pac flow but def with the neg nao things will be active on the east coast. We don't need artic dogs to get snow, just cold enough. Things look also a lot better in the long term... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 It will be hard to get sustained cold air with the pac flow but def with the neg nao things will be active on the east coast. We don't need artic dogs to get snow, just cold enough. Things look also a lot better in the long term... I definitely agree with you. It's a major pattern flip and to see such a robust -AO/-NAO is promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I definitely agree with you. It's a major pattern flip and to see such a robust -AO/-NAO is promising. Strong Nino very seldom have huge long stretches of artic air, 09-10 we did that all with normal temps. If we keep the GOA out of Alaska and help pump that PNA ridge I think we will be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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