• Member Statistics

    15,882
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LanaM
    Newest Member
    LanaM
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
Damage In Tolland

January 2016 Pattern Disco

Recommended Posts

VG?

 

 

Nice D5 clipper for you . Love how these vorts spin underneath these blocks in the M/R  and look better as you get closer .

 

If there is a thread for this I apologize 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

With the Arctic Oscillation's beginning its descent toward forecast values of -4.000 or below over the next 4-7 days, opportunities for measurable snowfall should increase over parts of North America, particularly the Middle Atlantic region. Since 1950, there have been 10 cases during which the AO first fell to -4.000 or below during the period from January 15 +/- 10 days. With two exceptions, Boston, Detroit, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC all saw at least some measurable snowfall from the date the AO first fell to -4.000 through the following 30 days.

 

Below is the latest AO forecast and statistics for those cases:

 

AO01082016c.jpg

 

 

Small changes in the Teleconnection Forecasts...

 

- There is larger agreement among the GFS ensemble members that the AO will fall to -5.000 to -4.000 toward mid-month, with somewhat fewer taking it below -5.000. The overall idea of the development of severe blocking remains unchanged. Today's AO figure was -2.758, which is the lowest it has been this winter.

 

- The NAO was slightly negative. It has been positive for 37 of the first 39 days of meteorological winter or 95% of the time. In contrast, the AO has been positive 72% of the time so far. The NAO is forecast to go strongly negative.

 

- The PNA remains positive. Consistent with a PDO+, the PNA+ has been the general rule this winter so far. The PNA has been positive for 82% of days and at or above +1.000 on 38% of the days. It is forecast to remain positive through the extended range, though one cluster of ensembles takes it to strongly positive levels and another cluster toward near neutral levels by the end of the ensemble forecast.

 

All said, given climatology, the forecast sustained AO-/PNA+ pattern should lead to an increase in snowfall opportunities in the eastern U.S., with the largest increase over the baseline being focused on the Middle Atlantic region.

Glad that Donny and I are one the same page.

The show is in the mid atlantic this season, just how many tickets are made available to be distributed up the coast remains to be seen.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Glad that Donny and I are one the same page.

The show is in the mid atlantic this season, just how many tickets are made available to be distributed up the coast remains to be seen.

1969 hmmm

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

AWT..We upslope

 

.AREAS OF UPSLOPE /WORCESTER AND TOLLAND HILLS AS WELL AS THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES/ COULD

EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUING INTO TOMORROW WITH THE DRY-OVER-MOIST SOUNDING. THE
QUESTION OF IMPACT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE
LOWER DWPTS...THERE IS STILL SOME ROOM TO WETBULB TO JUST BELOW
0C BUT MARGINAL.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

AWT..We upslope

.AREAS OF UPSLOPE /WORCESTER AND TOLLAND HILLS AS WELL AS THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES/ COULD

EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING AND

CONTINUING INTO TOMORROW WITH THE DRY-OVER-MOIST SOUNDING. THE

QUESTION OF IMPACT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE

LOWER DWPTS...THERE IS STILL SOME ROOM TO WETBULB TO JUST BELOW

0C BUT MARGINAL.

Congrats Union.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

AWT..We upslope

 

.AREAS OF UPSLOPE /WORCESTER AND TOLLAND HILLS AS WELL AS THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES/ COULD

EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING AND

CONTINUING INTO TOMORROW WITH THE DRY-OVER-MOIST SOUNDING. THE

QUESTION OF IMPACT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE

LOWER DWPTS...THERE IS STILL SOME ROOM TO WETBULB TO JUST BELOW

0C BUT MARGINAL.

Stinks that you only upslope on that direction... Not much of a benefit for snow

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

AWT..We upslope

 

.AREAS OF UPSLOPE /WORCESTER AND TOLLAND HILLS AS WELL AS THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES/ COULD

EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING AND

CONTINUING INTO TOMORROW WITH THE DRY-OVER-MOIST SOUNDING. THE

QUESTION OF IMPACT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE

LOWER DWPTS...THERE IS STILL SOME ROOM TO WETBULB TO JUST BELOW

0C BUT MARGINAL.

 

Congrats on your ESE upslope.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

AWT..We upslope

.AREAS OF UPSLOPE /WORCESTER AND TOLLAND HILLS AS WELL AS THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES/ COULD

EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING AND

CONTINUING INTO TOMORROW WITH THE DRY-OVER-MOIST SOUNDING. THE

QUESTION OF IMPACT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE

LOWER DWPTS...THERE IS STILL SOME ROOM TO WETBULB TO JUST BELOW

0C BUT MARGINAL.

It's a shame you'll be asleep for most of this event.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the key is what happens with the NAO. You can have a strong -AO and the NAO isn't all that negative.

 

 

All about the maturity of the NAO. There'll surely by positive height anomalies over Greenland, and the DS, but is it actually in true -NAO block form, or just an extension of ridging from the N Atl -- how significant is the cyclonic breaking of said ridge over the DS - and does it happen in time for the 1/17 threat

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have question for whoever knows. This is the 18z GEFs 15 day total precipitation panel. Would this be a typical Nino winter precip look? I always thought the STJ would stream across Mexico then through the SE. Or is this a Northern dominated jet stream pattern?

gfs-ens_apcpn_namer_64.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

All about the maturity of the NAO. There'll surely by positive height anomalies over Greenland, and the DS, but is it actually in true -NAO block form, or just an extension of ridging from the N Atl -- how significant is the cyclonic breaking of said ridge over the DS - and does it happen in time for the 1/17 threat

Yep. Love to see Sam I am agree.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.