Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Yup Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 2h 2 hours ago @antmasiello what this means is what I've already outlined (for those asking).A return of traditional T anomaly for CONUS Late Jan-early Feb I mean looks fine to me, its active its winter there is cold around, there is no mega ridge over us, some silly worry by All Snow if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I mean looks fine to me, its active its winter there is cold around, there is no mega ridge over us, some silly worry by All Snow if you ask me. I worry because we are in the coldest climo period of our winter and we have been active....and all we have to show for it is below 5 inches of snow up and down the northeast. Now temps are forecast to get near normal or slightly above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Definitely signs that flow becomes more Pacific dominated. Bad news is that we may not have the cold. On the flip side, it may be more active. I thought a -EPO tries to develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 They said no "good cold". Doesn't necessarily mean we can't snow. Esp up here in NE. Active pattern is what we want. Worry about temps second. I mean looks fine to me, its active its winter there is cold around, there is no mega ridge over us, some silly worry by All Snow if you ask me.Steve, do you think that you and I, at mid-CT latitude and 500' elevation, worry about precipitation first and temperature second? Just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Steve, do you think that you and I, at mid-CT latitude and 500' elevation, worry about precipitation first and temperature second? Just curious. I don't worry at all , it comes down to now casting anyways. all this hand wringing and worry is total wasted energy. Get me a storm in winter, let me track it, the day of or day before I will know whats up. not talking about storms heading to the GL, talking about nearby storms. It really doesn't matter where you live either, temperatures of course matter more than precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I thought a -EPO tries to develop. The jet undercuts it. Net result is usually the cold is sort of cut off from continuous supply. On the other hand, you'll probably get more disturbances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Its a pattern relaxation before the SSW help arrives....I really do not see the big deal. February 2015 isn't walking through that door, but neither is December 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
googmoog Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Wait, so now the LR looks sh*tty? Wasn't it just looking nice yesterday? Tough to keep up this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I thought a -EPO tries to develop. Not a met but perhaps the epo will not be enough to stop the stj effects from the el nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Steve, do you think that you and I, at mid-CT latitude and 500' elevation, worry about precipitation first and temperature second? Just curious. That is the case from near I 84 northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Wait, so now the LR looks sh*tty? Wasn't it just looking nice yesterday? Tough to keep up this winter. It looks interesting, but not very cold. Nothing is changing, its just that people present information quickly based upon how they perceive it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Its a pattern relaxation before the SSW help arrives....I really do not see the big deal. February 2015 isn't walking through that door, but neither is December 2015. I have serious doubts on any SSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 It looks interesting, but not very cold. Nothing is changing, its just that people present information quickly based upon how they perceive it. Nobody said sh*tty. Jesus this forum sometimes. If 2015 isn't mentioned, the pattern is just assumed to be dogsh*t. Why can't things just be OK? Is that possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I have serious doubts on any SSW. Isn't what you said like 24 hours ago. I guess people are all over the place. Hadn't realized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Isn't what you said like 24 hours ago. I guess people are all over the place. Hadn't realized. I didn't say anything about SSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I didn't say anything about SSW. So you weren't insinuating anything when you were raving about start warming. Ok...my mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 That is the case from near I 84 northward.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 So you weren't insinuating anything when you were raving about start warming. Ok...my mistake. I said two days ago about a warming maybe helping with a -AO. I also said there was no guarantee of a SSW, but it looked good. Well like everything else the past 2 years, the warming seems like it diminishes again. It's a bubble of warmth, but not really enough to displace the PV. Maybe move it 300 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 lol Ask Will, it's the truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I said two days ago about a warming maybe helping with a -AO. I also said there was no guarantee of a SSW, but it looked good. Well like everything else the past 2 years, the warming seems like it diminishes again. It's a bubble of warmth, but not really enough to displace the PV. Maybe move it 300 miles. We'll see. Sick of analyzing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I said two days ago about a warming maybe helping with a -AO. I also said there was no guarantee of a SSW, but it looked good. Well like everything else the past 2 years, the warming seems like it diminishes again. It's a bubble of warmth, but not really enough to displace the PV. Maybe move it 300 miles.totally overrated ,just keep that cold close, I think a lot of MAtl folks are hoping but honestly as proved so many years up here, meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Ask Will, it's the truth.only one who can probably claim get me precipitation in winter and I will worry about temps later in a consistent manner is PF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 only one who can probably claim get me precipitation in winter and I will worry about temps later in a consistent manner is PF. Wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Ask Will, it's the truth.It's overly generalized at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 It's overly generalized at the very least.totally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 totally overrated ,just keep that cold close, I think a lot of MAtl folks are hoping but honestly as proved so many years up here, meh. Right, just noting. Maybe it happens later in Feb...but time running out at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I will absolutely take precip first and temperatures 2nd. Just as a quick exercise for interior SNE...ORH in the past 25 years (since 1990) has had the following breakdown of snowfall: Above average: 12 Average: 4 Below Average: 9 The 9 below average are 1990-1991, 1991-1992, 1994-1995, 1997-1998, 1998-1999, 1999-2000, 2001-2002, 2006-2007, and 2011-2012. There was 1 of those 9 winters that had above average precip and that was 1997-1998...and out of the 9 winters below average, 1997-1998 had the most snowfall at 54.7". 1998-1999 was near average precip and the rest was solidly below average. In contrast, the following years with above average temps either had average or above average snowfall: 1996-1997, 2005-2006, 2007-2008, 2012-2013. All of them except 2005-2006 had above average precip...and 2005-2006 was the low year in the group at 66.2"...the other 3 were above average snowfall. Temperatures still matter...there's no claim that they do not. But precip matters more. One thing to take into consideration is that many of our warm/mild patters are also dry...so the two come in tandem. There's some covariance there. However, if we enter a pattern that is not particularly cold, but offers a lot of storm chances, then you should probably take that over a pattern that is very cold, but doesn't look too active. At least if you are in interior SNE...it gets more dicey further south along the south coast or SE areas. In those regions, you do not require a train of storms to stay above average for snowfall...just a couple good sized events will usually keep things in the black. The rest of our region needs consistent storm chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 It's sounds like interior folks should do fine. For this area over to James seems more questionable esp. with those way above normal SST. Hopefully next week's cold can get those down some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I will absolutely take precip first and temperatures 2nd. Just as a quick exercise for interior SNE...ORH in the past 25 years (since 1990) has had the following breakdown of snowfall: Above average: 12 Average: 4 Below Average: 9 The 9 below average are 1990-1991, 1991-1992, 1994-1995, 1997-1998, 1998-1999, 1999-2000, 2001-2002, 2006-2007, and 2011-2012. There was 1 of those 9 winters that had above average precip and that was 1997-1998...and out of the 9 winters below average, 1997-1998 had the most snowfall at 54.7". 1998-1999 was near average precip and the rest was solidly below average. In contrast, the following years with above average temps either had average or above average snowfall: 1996-1997, 2005-2006, 2007-2008, 2012-2013. All of them except 2005-2006 had above average precip...and 2005-2006 was the low year in the group at 66.2"...the other 3 were above average snowfall. Temperatures still matter...there's no claim that they do not. But precip matters more. One thing to take into consideration is that many of our warm/mild patters are also dry...so the two come in tandem. There's some covariance there. However, if we enter a pattern that is not particularly cold, but offers a lot of storm chances, then you should probably take that over a pattern that is very cold, but doesn't look too active. At least if you are in interior SNE...it gets more dicey further south along the south coast or SE areas. In those regions, you do not require a train of storms to stay above average for snowfall...just a couple good sized events will usually keep things in the black. The rest of our region needs consistent storm chances. just get us the cold I will worry about precip later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 we love the surprises cold produces Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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