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Damage In Tolland

January 2016 Pattern Disco

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I think the fear of a -NAO is overrated. Stop having 09-10 in your heads.

let's hope. OSUMet probably won't be a big fan of this setup in his new stomping grounds. Might not be pretty for St. John's.

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let's hope. OSUMet probably won't be a big fan of this setup in his new stomping grounds. Might not be pretty for St. John's.

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meh.  we walk the line.  There's been plenty of snowy years here with -nao.  Just have to put it in the right spot.  

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Personally, I love the reshuffle...it could turn out poorly, obviously.  But we weren't going to do anything with the mean northerly flow at 500mbs we were in all month of december in St. John's.  It was our driest December on record.  Bring on the subtropical jet and the storminess.  

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I think the fear of a -NAO is overrated. Stop having 09-10 in your heads.

Well it's easy for folks to comment on it when mets start mentioning a pattern similar to 09-10 with regards to -NAO... I don't think the knee jerk reaction was -NAO equals that but if peeps start throwing around -NAO similar to 09-10, we're going to see comments.

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meh. we walk the line. There's been plenty of snowy years here with -nao. Just have to put it in the right spot.

Yes that's true. Not every -NAO is a bad one. Just that winter...lol. I'm not sure but I think the winter of 2000-2001 was the one that St. John's got like 550cms. Wasn't that a -NAO season? We did alright here in Halifax that winter too.

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Yes that's true. Not every -NAO is a bad one. Just that winter...lol. I'm not sure but I think the winter of 2000-2001 was the one that St. John's got like 550cms. Wasn't that a -NAO season? We did alright here in Halifax that winter too.

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yes it was a -nao season.  

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Well it's easy for folks to comment on it when mets start mentioning a pattern similar to 09-10 with regards to -NAO... I don't think the knee jerk reaction was -NAO equals that but if peeps start throwing around -NAO similar to 09-10, we're going to see comments.

People have this boogie man fear of it because of one year. Someone could have also said 68-69. I'm sure that wouldn't cause people to shiver.

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People have this boogie man fear of it because of one year. Someone could have also said 68-69. I'm sure that wouldn't cause people to shiver.

Right, but I think 2009-2010 was mentioned because of the pattern it produced (big MidAtlantic snows), not because of the -NAO per se. That year gets mentioned by folks envisioning a massive block keeping storms down south.

We wouldn't be having this convo if people were posting hey it looks like 1968-69 all over again lol. It's not the -NAO fear it's the analog year that goes along with the -NAO.

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Right, but I think 2009-2010 was mentioned because of the pattern it produced (big MidAtlantic snows), not because of the -NAO per se. That year gets mentioned by folks envisioning a massive block keeping storms down south.

We wouldn't be having this convo if people were posting hey it looks like 1968-69 all over again lol. It's not the -NAO fear it's the analog year that goes along with the -NAO.

I guess my point is that 09-10 may have been mentioned due to it being recent.

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Anyways, I think the whole idea of being scared of a negative north Atlantic oscillation is based on 2009/2010. I understand why, but as been said numerous times before by myself well and others, it was really bad luck that year.

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Will, Scott or Ryan, do we glaze out here tomorrow night?

  

...AREAS OF BLACK ICE/ICY ROADS POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/MIST IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING

ACROSS NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHWEST RHODE ISLAND AND INTO MUCH

OF MASSACHUSETTS...POSSIBLY INTO THE I-95 CORRIDOR INCLUDING METRO

WEST BOSTON. THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES AND TOWNS OF HARTFORD...WINDSOR

LOCKS...WILLIMANTIC...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE...

AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...SPRINGFIELD...WORCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...

CAMBRIDGE...AYER...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD AND WEST GREENWICH.

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Anyways, I think the whole idea of being scared of a negative north Atlantic oscillation is based on 2009/2010. I understand why, but as been said numerous times before by myself well and others, it was really bad luck that year.

i want to see more of a 50/50 trapped under the block actually. not having one opens the door to rain issues

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i want to see more of a 50/50 trapped under the block actually. not having one opens the door to rain issues

Agreed. Would also provide more confluence which coastal areas need.

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I mean, ideally I would want a neg NAO a little less robust, but sign me up for 2010.

I would take my chances.

I live in northern NJ and although 2009-2010 early on was tough we got hammered in February. The models show one monster of a block so I agree with you , I'll take my chances.

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It looks like another round of warming coming up later in the model period at 50-10mb. That will be interesting to watch.

Tom,

Do you have a link for WAF charts or those cFSR strat wind products?

 

 

Here is past WAF (click on element to change):

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/figures/db_hist_jun_tcc.html

 

 

CFSR analysis on the CPC site:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/

 

 

I don't have access to the fancy WAF forecast charts that Dr. Cohen uses, unfortunately.

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Here is past WAF (click on element to change):

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/figures/db_hist_jun_tcc.html

 

 

CFSR analysis on the CPC site:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/

 

 

I don't have access to the fancy WAF forecast charts that Dr. Cohen uses, unfortunately.

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/

 

http://www.pa.op.dlr.de/arctic/ecmwf.php

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If the Euro weeklies and parallel 45 day Ens have a clue its game on for quite a stretch. I love the look and Feb really has that classic STJ into a cold air mass look, should be fun

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Well it's easy for folks to comment on it when mets start mentioning a pattern similar to 09-10 with regards to -NAO... I don't think the knee jerk reaction was -NAO equals that but if peeps start throwing around -NAO similar to 09-10, we're going to see comments.

 

Most definitely, Whether some want to hear it or not, Hate when its referenced because it was an extreme -NAO and this one does not look to be the case

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This is text of a tweet from Sam Lillo.  Cool to see how he lays out what he thinks the progression would be.  I think if the NAO really doe go negative, that might be our saviour for early February.

 

As Pac jet buckles, +WPO breaks down, Wrn NA ridging retrogrades, CWB over Quebec -> -NAO, + active STJ = Major NE US storm threat 1/16-17

 

Thanks man! Nothing here has changed. 1/17 continuing to hold interesting potential

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Thanks man! Nothing here has changed. 1/17 continuing to hold interesting potential

 

That's an interesting period, We miss those elongated sam accumulation maps here........... ;)

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